Barcelona final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Nishikori

It will not only be the No. 1 vs. No. 2 seed on Sunday in Barcelona, but it will also be the two men who have dominated this tournament to the tune of 10 titles in the last 11 years. Rafael Nadal and Kei Nishikori will battle for a familiar winner’s trophy.

Rafael Nadal and Kei Nishikori will be squaring off for the 10th time in their careers and for the second time this season when they meet again in the title match of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell on Sunday afternoon.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 8-1, including 2-0 on clay. In one of those clay-court showdowns, however, Nishikori seemed to be cruising to the 2014 Madrid title but ended up retiring in the third set because of a back injury. Nadal had previously trounced Nishikori on the slow stuff via a 6-4, 6-1, 6-3 scoreline at the 2013 French Open. They most recently faced each other earlier this spring in Indian Wells, where the Spaniard cruised 6-4, 6-3.

It is not often that Nadal goes up against a two-time defending champion of a clay-court tournament, but that will be the case in this one. After Nadal captured eight Barcelona titles in the span of nine seasons, Nishikori lifted the trophy in both 2014 and 2015. The world No. 6 is one victory from doing the same following straight-set defeats of Thiemo De Bakker, Jeremy Chardy, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Benoit Paire.

Kei

A resurgent Nadal will be No. 2 in the race to London on Monday and–as usually–he is looking especially impressive on clay. The top seed is coming off a much-needed title in Monte-Carlo, where Novak Djokovic lost early before Nadal took care of Andy Murray and Gael Monfils in the semis and final. Not looking back in Barcelona, Nadal punched his ticket to the championship match by beating Marcel Granollers, Albert Montanes, Fabio Fognini, and Philipp Kohlschreiber all in straight sets.

“Tomorrow I will play against one of the world’s best players and it will be complicated,” the world No. 5 assured. “I have to play a great match to win the final.”

The good news for Nadal is that it may not be as complicated as it could be on a fast hard court, such as the one on which Nishikori got the job done 6-2, 6-4 in last summer’s Montreal quarterfinals. Nishikori, who loves to take balls early, has a much easier time hitting through Nadal on a slicker surface. With his confidence regained and advantages in terms of both the surface and the crowd, Nadal should be able to hold off an in-form opponent.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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37 Comments on Barcelona final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Nishikori

  1. even the stats look good…21 winners to 18 UE against a player who is very fast.

    We know he can easily go one gear up from here…even then he won in straight sets!

    SO admirable how he has stood firm in the face of adversity all week! Did not surrender a set!

    GAME ON !!! Rafa is getting there , BIG TIME

  2. Yessss! Rafa in 2 it is! Beautiful tennis by the King of Clay beating qualty in-form opponent!

    So proud of you, Rafa!
    Vamooosssss!

    • Absolutely Hawkeye! Why not?! We can surely talk about it now!

      MAdrid and Rome are very very important. He will likely run into Novak…let’s see how much ground he has gained on him… He is already ready for the rest of the field

    • haha… He is getting closer and closer…. he can perhaps take a set now ! He needs to get more consistent , surely. Novak has a defense-offense balance which none of his other opponents possess. Novak’s ROS and his ability to make Rafa play so many high quality shots will be a next level challenge.

      Rafa is mentally and physically very strong now. His forehand is doing damange and all he needs is a bit of consistency.

      His serve was a lot better than it was in the MC final! Progress there too. His ROS is close to the vintage Rafa level and I am not worried about it.

      Continuing improving the serve and ironing out those inconsistencies. Anything is possible then.

      • Nah, not only a set! It depends how they come out to play. Nishi is quick, even quicker than Djoko on clay and he takes the ball even earlier. Nishi can be scarily good from both wings, his BH is more scary and more lethal than Djoko’s.

        What Djoko has over Nishi is his precision and consistency. As long as Rafa can play aggressively, moves forward often and not cede too much ground to Djoko, Rafa CAN beat Djoko. Of course, the main thing is still how Rafa controls his nerve when playing against Djoko.

        • Lucky,

          I agree with your take on Nishi and Novak and the different challenges they present for Rafa. Nishi reminded me today of just how quick he can be and how early he takes the ball. But Novak does have the accuracy and most important of all, the consistency. So it was a good test for Rafa. I think it might be interesting to see how Rafa will do if he meets Novak in Madrid or Rome. This is a very different Rafa than the one he faced even in I/W.

  3. Congrats Rafa and fans!!! Its been quite some time since we’ve been so gleeful on a Sunday now tow in a row!!! This is so much more than I can ask for! Nishi tried but he couldn’t….could this be a great sign of things to come?!!! I hope so.

    Good luck Rafa for the rest of the clay court season. Keep improving on your serves and your nerves; continue to trust your game, improve you bp conversion stats and hold on to those service games!!!! If you do then RG is yours!!!! Great Sunday for me once again!!……hehe!!!

    VAmos, Rafa!!!

  4. I got really nervous watching the match. I really wanted Rafa to close it out in two sets. That’s what I predicted, with only a caveat that it might go to a third if Rafa had some major lapses. I just wanted it to end!

    I am really happy that Rafa won another title! So important for his confidence! Now we will see how he does in Madrid and Rome. More good results would be a good thing!

    Rafa did raise his level of play, as I expected he would. This was his best match of the tournament. It’s a good thing, because Nishi came out playing well.

    What I liked is how Rafa seemed to sense the moment in the first set when he was up 5-4 and went after Nishi to break him. He took the initiative and became very aggressive. It worked and he got the first set with the break! That is what I like to see! Then in the second set, I thought that Rafa took it to another level. It was high quality stuff from both guys, but Rafa was clearly starting to feel it. He was getting into a good rhythm with his groundstrokes.

    Rafa also showed some real mental strength in this match in fighting off some break points. He is getting better and better.

    Rafa needs to work on his serve and break point conversions and just keep on keeping on. It’s all starting to come together.

    As for RG, I don’t want to get ahead of myself. I am taking it one tournament at a time for now.

    Well done, Rafa!

  5. Thank you Rafa for for winning in straight sets and sparing your fans from a nerve janging TB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    As hard as he tried Rafa could not conceal his joy and happiness at regaining his crown at Barcelona. For two weeks in a row you have treated us to the welcome sight of seeing you bite on the trophy.

    Onwards and upwards.

  6. Taking down Novak is going to be a big test. We will see where Rafa ends up in the draw for Madrid. Then we will know if he has to face Novak sooner or later. But Novak is the big challenge. I also have to believe that he will want to reassert himself at Madrid. It’s not like Novak is going anywhere! He will be intent on doing well.

    I do think that Rafa may well meet Novak in Madrid or Rome. You can’t avoid the #1 player! I am not yet ready to say how he will do. Not making any predictions. I think Rafa is ready to face just about anyone else.

    Again, I don’t want to get too carried away. RG is some weeks off and there is a lot of tennis to be played. It would be wonderful if Rafa can continue to win and have good results.

    • tbh i am not that keen on him playing nole in madrid. the more wins he can garner in a row the better. am hoping nole gets taken down by someone else. of course the best thing possible would be for rafa to beat nole there but i am not counting on it especially as the surface and altitude doesn’t suit rafa so well at madrid. better he plays him in rome with
      momentum in his favour.

      • Nole hates Madrid tourney! I say better to meet him sooner than later and work on further improvements! Rafa’s game must be further adjusted to beat Djokovic and the only way of doing so is by playing him.

        I don’t want Rafa to fear any player! He overcomes his fears by beating those guys who took him down in 2015! Nole is no exception!

        Vamos Rafa! Get your King of Clay crown back!

  7. just looked up stan’s results for last year. he lost in madrid in the 3rd round and in the semis of rome. that means he could pick up quite a lot of points in madrid. given there is 545 points between them and rafa is defending final points in madrid then it will be hard for him to take over the #4 spot if stan goes deep in madrid.

    • still, i can remember being desperate in 2013 for him to get the #4 ranking from ferrer for rg. he went and got it but ended up on the same side of the draw as nole while ferrer had an easy ride to the final on the other side. can remember cursing when i saw the rg draw and wishing he was still #5

      • please please please let nole be on the other side of the rg draw….!!
        rafa really mustn’t play him before the semis….!

        • But Rafa beat Djoker in the SF in 2013 and went on to win the title. I’ve decided not to worry about things I have no control over, whatever will be will be.

    • Amy,

      Thanks for looking up stan’s results from last year. I heard that he had less points to defend, but I could not remember how far he went in Madrid. Rafa has more points to defend at Madrid, but only quarterfinal points at Rome. It’s going to be tight to try and get the #4 ranking before RG. It depends on whether Rafa can defend his Madrid points and then get a great result in Rome.

      One thing I do know – I do not want Rafa to face Novak in the quarterfinals st RG again this year. But we have no control over what happens. All Rafa can do is keep winning.

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