Australian Open third-round previews and picks: Nadal vs. Sela, Federer vs. Seppi

Rafa vs DolgopolovRafael Nadal will be hoping to bounce back from a tough five-setter against Tim Smyczek when he takes the court two days later to face Dudi Sela. Roger Federer is also looking for a place in the third round as he collides with Andreas Seppi on Friday.

Dudi Sela vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Since Wimbledon last summer, Nadal has been plagued by physical problems and early exits from tournaments. More of the same almost continued on Wednesday night, when the Spaniard went up against qualifier Tim Smyczek. An ill Nadal came within one game of losing before overcoming the American 6-2, 3-6, 6-7(2), 6-3, 7-5. The match lasted four hours and 12 minutes, but a clutch world No. 3 looked better late in the fifth than he did in sets two and three.

Nadal’s reward is what should be a favorable draw on Friday against another diminutive opponent in Sela. As the previous round suggests, however, nothing is a sure thing. Like Smyczek, Sela is clean ball-striker who can play on top of the baseline while minimizing mistakes. The 106th-ranked Israeli wields one of the sweetest one-handed backhands on tour, but it has never been tested by Nadal and it may not be able to withstand the favorite’s constant bombardment of powerful topspin. Unless Nadal is for some reason below 100 percent once again, he should cruise through the first-ever meeting between the two veterans.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 11-14 games

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Andreas Seppi vs. (2) Roger Federer

Federer and Seppi, on the other hand, have an extensive head-to-head history heading into Friday’s third-round clash. And to say things have not gone well for the Italian would be a massive understatement. He is 0-10 lifetime against the Swiss and 1-21 in total sets. The two veterans have not faced each other since the 2013 Shanghai Masters, where Federer rolled 6-4, 6-3. Their only previous Grand Slam encounter came at this Australian Open in 2009, when the eventual runner-up prevailed 6-1, 7-6(4), 7-5.

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The scare was not quite along the lines of Nadal’s, but Federer also had to overcome a deficit in round two. Melbourne’s second seed managed to maintain momentum from an opening win over Yen-Hsun Lu by fighting past Simone Bolelli 3-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2. Seppi booked his spot in the last 32 with victories over Denis Isomin (in five sets) and Jeremy Chardy (in four). As the results indicate, the world No. 46 has no offensive weapons that can seriously trouble Federer. He is a solid player who can make opponents beat themselves, but that is not going to happen with the 17-time major champion in this kind of form.

Pick: Federer in 3 losing 8-10 games

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