Australian Open R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Draper, Coric vs. Lehecka

Rafael Nadal headlines the Day 1 schedule at the Australian Open, where a tough opening test comes in the form of Jack Draper. Another marquee matchup pits Borna Coric against up-and-coming Czech Jiri Lehecka.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Jack Draper

There is plenty of both good news and bad news for Nadal heading into the first Grand Slam of 2023. On one hand, the 36-year-old Spaniard is the defending champion of this tournament and he should be well-rested following the offseason. On other hand, Nadal has struggled physically since winning the first two majors of 2022. The world No. 2 is 0-2 so far this year, with United Cup losses to Cameron Norrie and Alex de Minaur–both in tight three-setters.

Up first for Nadal on Monday is Draper, a 21-year-old Brit who has climbed to 40th in the rankings. Draper fared decently at the two Adelaide warmup events, losing to Karen Khachanov in the second round and then reaching the semifinals before falling to eventual champion Soonwoo Kwon. This is a dangerous opening matchup for Nadal, but in a best-of-five situation he should have both a mental and physical edge over an inexperienced opponent.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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WWW: Nadal vs. Draper?

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Who will win Nadal's quarter?


Jiri Lehecka vs. (21) Borna Coric

Coric and Lehecka will also be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers on Monday. Lehecka started to make a name for himself in 2022, engineering a run to the NextGen ATP Finals title match and finishing well inside the top 100. The 21-year-old Czech is off to a strong start in 2023, with a win over Alexander Zverev at the ATP Cup followed by successful qualification and a second-round effort in Auckland (lost to eventual runner-up Norrie in three sets).

Jiri Lehecka

This is a good opportunity for Lehecka, as Coric has cooled off a bit since capturing the Cincinnati title in very unexpected fashion last summer. The 23rd-ranked Croat also suited up at the United Cup earlier this month, when he posted wins over Francisco Cerundolo and Arthur Rinderknech to go along with a loss at the hands of Stefanos Tsitsipas. Coric is almost always a question mark from a physical standpoint and often has problems in best-of-five matches; in fact, in seven trips to the Aussie Open he has lost in the opening round five times. An upset for Lehecka would not come as much of a surprise.

Pick: Lehecka in 5

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WWW: Coric vs. Lehecka?

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Who will win the Australian Open?

32 Comments on Australian Open R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Draper, Coric vs. Lehecka

    • It is awful indeed. Showed his wife crying when he was suffering with pain in the 2nd. This will be hard to take for both himself and his team. Big dent to their ‘recovery process’ of building confidence.

      2022 and 2009 aside, how unlucky has AO been for Rafa. Don’t know if it is worth continuing here if he is that hobbled?

  1. Rafa’s campaign is over now looks like and this NOT what he needed. Another injury. Maybe it is the hip and he is hanging in there hoping the painkillers work but who knows it might make it worse.

    Unfortunately for Rafa Mcdonald was playing too well for him to iron out the wrinkles in his game and build confidence. The balls being dead is very visible today with Rafa’s struggle on his forehand CC and Mcdonald benefetting from his low net-clearance shots.

    2nd set 3-2 looked like Rafa had really started to find his range but then things went south again.

    The serve has been meek in the first 2 sets – not winning enough free pts or setting up easy balls.

    If Rafa goes out limping from here, we are potentially in for a phase where doubts arrest his mind and it will be a painful process to get to get to winning ways.

    Wow, he is very compromised here. Looks like no way he can get through this match let alone the tournament.

    • 5 injuries in 9 months ..looks like he is done body is giving up totally..

      The only bright side is this is the lowest he can go..no wins since last 7 months..lost 2000 points down to maybe 7 in rankings ..

      Only place from here is up..maybe he has one last hurrah before he quits

      BTW Americans are a torture for rafa now ..fritz, tiafoe ,Macdonald

      • 5 injuries in 9 months, you are right. Has to take a toll on him mentally. When so many parts of your body get injured, you tend to lose confidence in your body and the movement lacks that explosiveness. Saw that happen in 2014 and what followed was a painful 2015. He is now 7 years older so makes it difficult.

        Here’s to hoping the hip injury or whatever it was is not serious and goes away in a couple of weeks and he is able to begin practicing soon. Will be a difficult process and I now have my doubts about him getting into top shape / form for the French open. The recovery time for this injury is key and then the mental aspect is the demon to conquer.

        As far as tennis is concerned, he had cut down his unforced errors (always a subjective stat!) today and was hitting a bit better but yeah too many unusual misses esp. those shanked returns going miles away on big moments. The forehand cross was NOT effective for two reasons; Rafa’s inability to find the right spot in the court and these dead balls (it was more obvious today against a righty how the balls were not working for him). FAA also complained about the ball and so did Novak yesterday. Mcdonald had really low net clearance and he profited from that.

        Anyway, too many limitations on the body now for Rafa to play freely. Will be a very difficult road ahead and I can only hope he exceeds expectations and gets ready in time for the French.

        • I just watched Rafa’s presser. Looks like the hip is an ongoing problem and he isn’t sure why: bone, cartilage or muscle. Why did he keep playing? Because. Because he could, I guess. Couldn’t hit his backhand, he said. Minor inconvenience? Going to have tests, going to “recover”. He said. He did not cry, but he looked very sad, very frustrated. Too damn many injuries! I may cry. He talked a bit about how hard “recovery” is.

          • Very sad indeed. And you were on to something when you mentioned he winced before taking the seat in his presser. Looks like his body was subject to a lot of strain and couldn’t take it?

  2. This is devastating. I can’t see how Rafa can go on like this. I am at a loss for words. He had to struggle against a guy like McDonald. Losing all those points. Not being able to compete.

    Just a disaster. This may make him think about retiring.

  3. Hi all, just came here with the strong feeling Rafa had lost. Found out he has. Don’t know what to say.
    I was feeling very very frustrated with him because of all this practising this last day or so. Have been feeling very frustrated since the autumn because I couldn’t understand why he didn’t just stay at home with Mery when his son was born and rest his body after all the ab injuries.
    Was very alarmed by those comments he made to Lopez in the de minaur match about having no confidence. All of this has felt like 2015. I have said multiple times I was seriously worried that his anxiety had come back as a result of the injuries.

      • amy,

        Hugs to you! I watched the match and it was really hard. To see Rafa struggling with his game and this guy playing so much better, was not enjoyable. Then when he had the injury I thought I was going to cry. Not again.

        It was just heartbreaking, especially seeing his wife crying.

        • Nny, very very sorry. It was the middle of night where I am thank God. Probably not going to engage with the AO now. I need to detach myself from the pain of this.
          Love to you and mira and Ramara!❀❀❀❀
          PS let me know if you want me to open the non tennis forum for you.

    • Thanks Amy and hugs to you too, I did NOT watch live, just too late for ma, but I woke up at 3am and saw the bad result, knew something was really wrong. This morning I watched his presser. I feel awful for Rafa and his dear family, but truth to tell, things are going so badly for my poor husband that this is a minor thing by comparison.

      • Gosh Ramara, incredibly sorry to hear your husband is ill.
        Lots of love to you!
        xxxxx
        PS weird isn’t it how one can feel a result before you know it! I felt very very strongly he had lost and was honestly kind of expecting it.

  4. I was just reading the politics section of the Graun and Rafa’s loss came up as the #1 read article. This was a great comment on it:
    ‘” Better like this at the end. I lost nothing to say”
    He stands alone in the pantheon of all time greats when it comes to humility.
    Hoping he can revive one more time for Roland Garros. He has nothing left to prove to anyone but himself it seems.’

  5. The cesspool of rabid Novak fans has come out from their hole once again. That is a shame because they seem to have nothing better to do.

    • Please don’t read/react to the stupid Molefarm posters. They’re all nasty little Serbian children. Thing about the internet is you can’t tell who’s posting. You’d just laugh if you saw these pathetic beings.

  6. I don’t know what is wrong with this site but some posts of mine appear in some versions of the site and not in others. As if variants of the site existed side by side!😯😯

    • Just worked out that one of the problems is that we are all posting on 2 separate threads. This is the one we were talking on so leaving this here!

    • Ohh hey amy!πŸ˜€..sooo sorry! i’m a bit late to respond to yor msg up there amy!..and yeah!..i was watching LIVE yesterday & after Rafa’s loss,i don’t have an energy @ will to come here or respond to u amy!..sorry!..God!..this pain is sooo stupid & ridiculous!

      • It’s ok mira, I understand! πŸ˜€
        Watching Rafa lose live is extremely upsetting. Especially with the injury and his wife crying. I was fortunate not to see it.
        Don’t feel you have to write here unless you want to as you are probably exhausted. It takes a while to digest these things.
        I just wanted you to know I was thinking of you that’s all.
        Big hug!
        xxx

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