Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Zverev vs. Tien

Can anyone stop Learner Tien?

That wasn’t a question that anyone expected to pose when the Australian Open began, but it can certainly be asked now. After all, the 20-year-old American completely destroyed three-time Aussie Open runner-up Daniil Medvedev 6-4, 6-0, 6-3 in the fourth round.

Another former finalist in Melbourne, Alexander Zverev, gets the next crack at Tien in the quarterfinals on Tuesday. This marks their third meeting after they split the first two last season. Tien prevailed 6-3, 6-4 on the hard courts of Acapulco before Zverev dominated a clay-court contest 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 at Roland Garros.

The proverbial rubber match should be a good one, because both guys have been outstanding so far this fortnight.

Tien needed five sets against compatriot Marcos Giron in round one, but he has won eight consecutive sets heading into the quarters after ousting Medvedev, Alexander Shevchenko, and Nuno Borges. During this stretch the world No. 29 has issued two bagels and a breadstick, and only one set — a tiebreaker against Borges — has been more competitive than 6-4.

Learner Tien


Zverev opened with four-set victories over Gabriel Diallo, Alexandre Muller, and Cameron Norrie before clobbering Francisco Cerundolo 6-2, 6-4, 6-4 on Sunday. The third-ranked German is now 35-11 lifetime in Melbourne with one runner-up performance (last year), two semifinal efforts, and one quarterfinal result.

Although the head-to-head result on clay can be thrown out the window since Tien is a novice on that surface, this is still a matchup that should favor Zverev. One, the 28-year-old absolutely owns left-handers. He is an unbelievable 38-1 in his last 39 matches against lefties. Moreover, Rod Laver Arena plays slower than the other courts. Zverev has the firepower to hit through those conditions; Tien does not. Finally, this is Zverev’s 40th Grand Slam quarterfinal; it is Tien’s first.

The underdog will almost certainly make this competitive given how well he is playing, but Zverev should advance.

Pick: Zverev in 4

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12 Comments on Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Zverev vs. Tien

  1. If they split meetings on his worst surface, and he OWNS the guy who owns him (Medvedev), how can you say Zverev is favored? Tien in 4 or 5

  2. We can’t ignore the fact that Medvedev is much older than Zverev, and had played a 5-set match the previous night, so his physical condition was probably not at its best. This influenced his match against Tien. Zverev is younger, also played an excellent match against Cerundolo, is aiming for his first Grand Slam title, is in a much better psychological state, and is also seeking revenge for his last match against Tien. The result today will be 3-0 for Zverev or 3-1.

  3. Tien does more with the forehand than Cerundolo and more consistent off the backhand. Arguably a better serve also with the swinger out wide.

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