Australian Open QF previews and predictions: Federer vs. Berdych, Chung vs. Sandgren

The second day of Australian Open quarterfinal action will take place on Wednesday, when Roger Federer is back on the court against Tomas Berdych. A far more surprising showdown–one of the most unexpected in slam QF history–features Hyeon Chung and Tennys Sandgren.

Tomas Berdych vs. (2) Roger Federer

Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych will be squaring off for the 26th time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the semifinals of the Australian Open on Wednesday night. Federer is dominating the head-to-head series 19-6, but there has to be at least some optimism for Berdych. After all, six wins in 25 attempts is a smashing success compared to the standards most players set for themselves against Federer. Moreover, the 32-year-old Czech is playing far better tennis right now–albeit with a very small sample size–than he was throughout a prolonged slump in 2016 and 2017 that kept him out of consecutive Nitto ATP Finals. During those two seasons he went 0-4 against Federer and 1-11 total sets–including 0-2 (0-6 in sets) at the Australian Open. Berdych earned himself another shot at the Swiss thanks to mostly routine victories earlier in the tournament over Alex de Minaur, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Fabio Fognini.

Federer was the favorite to defend his 2017 title before the fortnight even started and his status as such has only skyrocketed due to recent losses taken by Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, among other top 15 players. The world No. 2 has not come close to suffering a similar fate, as he punched his ticket to the last eight by cruising past Aljaz Bedene, Jan-Lennard Struff, Richard Gasquet, and Marton Fucsovics all in straight sets. Federer is obviously in fine form and he has to be supremely confident against Berdych with an 8-0 record at the underdog’s expense dating back to 2014.

Pick: Federer in 3

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Tennys Sandgren vs. Hyeon Chung

It will be one of the most surprising Grand Slam quarterfinal matchups in ATP history when Chung and Sandgren collide on Wednesday afternoon. Byron Black vs. Vladimir Voltchkov at Wimbledon in 2000 is on a similar scale, but not much else can rival this one. Most of that, of course, has to do with Sandgren. The 26-year-old American had been a perennial Futures and Challenger level player until now, with only two main-tour match wins in his entire career. Ranked 97th in the world, Sandgren has emerged from nowhere to make a miracle run in Melbourne at the expense of Jeremy Chardy, Stan Wawrinka, Maximilian Marterer, and Dominic Thiem.

Chung’s quarterfinal appearance is a surprise more because he had no past history of success at Grand Slams and a difficult draw. For him, natural talent has never been a question mark. The 21-year-old South Korean captured the inaugural NextGen ATP Finals title last fall in Milan and he beat two fellow NextGen stars earlier in this tournament (Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev). Chung also advanced by taking out Mischa Zverev (via retirement) and six-time Aussie Open champion Novak Djokovic. Although Djokovic is a shadow of his former self at the moment, nothing can be taken away from what was an awesome performance by Chung throughout a 7-6(4), 7-5, 7-6(3) triumph on Monday night. The world No. 58 is in outstanding form, has already played in Rod Laver Arena twice (Sandgren never has), and he just beat Sandgren three weeks ago in Auckland.

Pick: Chung in 4

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107 Comments on Australian Open QF previews and predictions: Federer vs. Berdych, Chung vs. Sandgren

  1. Berdy winning points is more to do with Fed’s errors than Berdy’s brilliance. Berdy plays a predictable game, Fed knows exactly where to hit to that Berdy just couldn’t reach.

        • Lets not go too far. Wimby 2017 final is still fresh in everyone’s mind. Check Cilic’s 4th round match. Had the break in first and fourth set. Could not serve out against the Spainard.

          • Nah, against Rafa he could. Where it mattered most, he responded, sensing the weakness in his opponent, unlike Berdych. Berdych was having the upper hand for most of the set yet he tense up when he’s about to win the set, that’s the difference to me!

      • Berdych is playing pretty well, but Cilic hit 83 winners against Rafa. I don’t think you can say that Tomas is playing better.

        • Exactly Joe! This Berdy is hopeless! When serving for the set, he couldn’t get his first serve right so often that gave Fed the chance to fight back. A few good serves was all that’s needed yet Berdy as usual couldn’t do that.

          TBH, Fed wasn’t even playing that well, with all the DFs and overhitting and hitting into the net but Berdy failed to capitalize! Fed when given a chance would be sure to fight back and used his varieties to ‘confuse’ Berdy.

    • Agreed, Joe. He used his varieties well to attack Berdych ‘s weaknesses. Fed need not be in top form to beat this Berdych.

      It’ll be interesting to see Fed vs Chung, and see how far Chung could go against this Fed.

  2. And I’ve to add that it’s a pity Delpo didn’t play well enough to face this Fed;I guess a Delpo who’s playing well will be a tougher opponent for Fed, compared to a Berdych.

  3. luckystar’s comments are so full of hatred. I can understand being a Rafa fan , she absolutely want any idiot on this world to win AO, but writing utter garbage here. If you dont know the scoreboad and are not seeing the match, you will think Fed is playing absolute rubbish.

    • Fedexal, you’re the one feeling the hatred for me in particular. Read my comments carefully, I’m watching the match and I say it when I see it.

      Fed served a few DFs, he wasn’t great but just played enough to trouble this Berdych. If you think this Fed is playing very well, then I think you set your expectation too low on Fed!

      • You replied Cilic does not have any problems serving for the set. I gave you two instances of his 4th round match. If I am not wrong, you were cursing Cici the most after Wimby final. You are a junk ! Get some life. Dont change topics if you run out of answers.

        • Fedexal, mind your language even when you’re getting angry for no reasons! I criticized Cilic at Wimbledon, what’s wrong if he’s doing something like what Berdych is doing now?

          But, at this AO, against Rafa, at least he didn’t cow to Rafa, served it out when he had the upper hand, unlike Berdy here! So, I can’t criticize the players but you can? Who do you think you are??

          • Over jealous?? Who are you talking about??

            I have my Rafa, what else do I need to be jealous about? Don’t you find yourself laughable, being talking like this?? You hardly know anyone one here to comment about what they are!

            Look at thinwhiteduke’s summary, he gets it, and that’s pretty much how I feel about the match, and about how both Fed and Berdych played!

          • Luckystar you owe me an apology, you deceived me lol, I thought you were a man and not a woman.

            I disagree with some of your views on tennis but I love your passion and knowledge in tennis even though I disagree with some of them because they are wrong, you are passionate and I like that.

  4. How exciting it would be if Chung manages to beat Fed and win AO. All the players in the generation between big 3 & 5 to Chung would be kind of ‘lost generation’.

    • While Chung is playing very well, I think he lacks the experience to deal with Fed. Fed may not be in top form, but he’s smart enough to use his varieties and will grab any chances when he sees them so Chung will have a hard time and have to play a perfect match to have any chances.

  5. Not a great match by Fed, but enough to get past old Berdy anyway.

    Fed got off to a crap start, and Berdych’s forehand was firing on all cylinders. Uncharacteristic DF’s from Fed, as well as the early UE’s that have been par for him in recent matches. Looked like the refreshed 2018AO Berdych could be a slightly different breed to the old one, but lo and behold, the naysayers were right, and the usual Berdych turned up to serve for the set at 5-3. Missed pretty much all his first serves, Fed upped his level slightly, and then took it out easily in the breaker.

    Couple of standard sets after that where Fed got a break ahead, all over ho-hum. Berdych actually got a break back in the third after taking an MTO. Frankly, this did not really look concerning for this match, as it looked like Fed could break again easily enough anyway. It does however indicate that Fed’s level can actually go a bit higher from here, despite the fact he hasn’t lost a set yet. He did still make some damn impressive passes though, and the drop shots were right on point too. He hit 4-5 drop shots and I think won all of them, on about 3 of them the ball just died once it went over the net, Berdych with his movement wasn’t gonna get near those.

  6. Fed is playing the best tennis since last year. He made some smart movies, skipping RG last year, preparing for Wimby. He was unlucky in USO, had he been 100% healthwise, he would have won the big apple for sure. He does not want to slip AO now. He is being helped by draws but still he would have beaten the formidable opponents, if they happen to meet him anyway.

    I just hope Cilic if he gets thru final puts up a decent show otherwise we might see a repeat of Wim 2017.

    • A healthy Fed would have won the USO the same way a healthy Rafa would have won the AO. This is tennis, not fantasyland. You lace up the sneakers and play the game. You win or you lose. No woulda, coulda, shoulda.

      Regarding Fed’s “smart” scheduling decisions, how about playing Montreal? He was reaching for #1 and fell on his face. Should have skipped it as he usually does. And skipping the WHOLE clay court season? Ridiculous. Handed Rafa the #1 right there. Fed’s a superb tennis player and smart, but he’s human and he makes mistakes.

      • Skipping the whole RG season was the best move. He would not have won RG and would have lost twice or thrice to Rafa on clay court tourneys and would have lost the mental edge. And would have lost the freshness as well.

        Playing Montreal was not that bad a decision, its just that he actually got injured.

        Healthy Rafa would not have won AO 2018.

        • The point is that even with skipping the entire clay season, Fed was not able to avoid injury. Do evrn with the most careful scheduling as he did in not playing the entire clay season, his back still acted up in Montreal. He had to skip Cincy.

          Fed played at the USO even though it was obvious from the start that he was not physically 100%. He got pushed to five sets by both Tiafoe and Youzhny. He was not moving well in those matches. Ultimately he lost to Delpo in the quarterfinals and said afterwards that he was ready mentally and his game was not there. Yet he opted to play.

          This is not an exact science. Players have their doctors and team to help guide them with scheduling and dealing with injuries that come up.

          Rafa has said that he was told in 2016 that he could play at Rome even with his wrist problem. He said that it turned out to be the wrong decision because he had to withdraw from RG in the early rounds.

          That’s why I don’t like criticizing the players for their scheduling. Even the doctors don’t always know for sure if an injury will get worse or not. It’s part of the risk of playing sport.

          • So, Rafa had just come off injury ? What about Fed who was away from tennis for 7 months which was more than Rafa’s break.

            I wont ask you the question, whether you follow tennis or not, because I know the answer.

          • Fedexal, sad to say, you seriously have a problem here!

            What’s this hate or jealousy about? You’re truly imagining things! I post what I think, about any player, not just about Fed!

            If there’s one player a Rafa fan should ‘hate’, it’s Djoko, not Fed! Who beats Rafa 7 in a row not only once but twice; and which top player is leading Rafa in the H2H?

            I’m fair with my posting about other players (I may be biased in favor of Rafa of course). I call it as I see it; I’ve no problem acknowledging Djoko is the best player who could dominate on all surfaces; I’ve no problem acknowledging Fed is the best grass and fast court player among the current active players. I don’t see why I’m ‘hating’ or am ‘jealous’ about Fed??

            You think I’m sore about Rafa losing? Nah, I saw that coming after watching the Schwartzman match. He’s simply being too defensive and got caught into a long grinding match, asking for trouble. His fitness was in question too when he said the humid conditions out there bothered him.

            You should tell yourself to relax, don’t think that others are hating or feeling jealous, life is not about being so negative towards others! Why would people want to hate somebody when they don’t even know that somebody personally??

            PS. I supported Berdy in this match because I feel sorry for him for not winning a slam; if he’s playing anyone else not named Rafa, I would also want Berdy to win, nothing to do with hating Fed.

          • I answered the question you asked and my original statement stands.

            Want to make another homophobic response? It’s all you have left.

          • Lucky @6:22PM.

            I agree with 100% what you said right there regarding fed, Rafa’s form, Nole and this poster.

            fedexal was like this on TennisTalk years ago and was banned there for racist and homophobic statements.

          • And do you have a class? Always predicting Fed will win and Nadal will lose and if fed wins you start your rubbish about scheduling, day/night, draws, roof, fast/super fast court, centre court, etc and if Nadal wins you will claim he is better than Fed. Such a double standard person you’re.

          • BP, show me where I predicted that incorrectly please.

            And show me when I started pointing out draw and scheduling favouritism, etc. only AFTER fed wins. It’s the other way around.

            So many extreme fedfans with double standards. PeRFect example is fedfans saying fed had the better year overall in 2017 because of h2h yet h2h “never mattered” until then.

            And fedexal’s at 5:32 “class” cracking a homophobic joke. Quite pathetic and telling. You should get along well with stanley, another classy fedfan here.

          • Not proof of anything only that Fed didn’t even play Bercy so how could he get preferential treatment if he didn’t even play there?

            Show me proof of what you said (without your homophobic insults). I remember you were banned on tennistalk for racist comments. You were homophobic there too I remember.

            No proof. Just avoidance.

          • Hawkeye, there is no point whether you predict after or before the draw because you always predict the same. According to you Fed will win against every other player including Rafa(except clay) I don’t have a problem with your prediction because as a Fed fan I too have the same feeling but the problem is you start your usual hatred towards fed with favourable draw infact it shouldn’t matter as according to you fed will anyway win against whoever he faces.
            Actually Rafa gets mostly the easiest draw, take some 10 good players according to you whom you consider good and check number of times Rafa and Roger played against them it will give the correct picture.

          • Djokovic from 2008-2012 in non-clay slams (where fed got murray instead) more often than not because Nole was better on clay than Murray.

            All the proof I need fedexal.

          • You said this “Anyone who thinks federer won’t play Bercy be bat shite cray”.

            Eventually Fed did not play. Enough said. No more proofs required. Shamelessness exposed.

          • How many times djoko’s has played against fed in semis in a GS. This number is much higher than Rafa against Djokovic in semifinals

        • “would have lost his ‘mental edge’?” You really think Roger Federer is that fragile mentally??? If he were he’d have spent the last 10 years cowering under his bed, afraid the big bad Nadal was coming for him.

      • I agree with you, Ramara- shoulda/coulda/woulda is so pointless. It can be a combination of reasons why someone is holding the trophy on that second Sunday, such as they played really good tennis, they played well in clutch moments, they took care of their body/played a style of tennis that is less injury-prone, etc. When it comes down to it, however, the person who is raising that trophy on that second Sunday was ALWAYS the best player of that tournament… Every time. That includes Rafa at USO. Whether it was because Fed made the mistake of playing in Montreal, or he just didn’t play well enough in NYC, or a combination of reasons, the fact is that he was not the best tennis player that fortnight- Rafa was!

        And if 36 1/2 year-old Federer manages to get by Chung and Cilic/Edmund, and is holding the trophy on Sunday, then that means that Federer was the best tennis player in the tournament. Same as Rafa in the previous major.

        No shoulda/coulda/woulda. Shit is pointless because there is no way to know. All we ever know is that one player was good enough to beat the players that the other players weren’t good enough to beat (or even get far enough to face). Period.

        • I also believe could’ve would’ve shit is pointless. I am just trying to ape a poster here who on the 1st page posted that DelPo “Could” have been a tough opposition for “this” Fed and is now agreeing to the comment that we should not indulge in imagining. This site has a bunch of hypocrites led by that poster.

          • Ha ha fedexal, still feeling sore huh?

            Delpo could have been a tougher opponent for Fed if he’s playing well, not difficult to know that based on H2H with Fed, compared to Berdych’s vs Fed. I think that’s not science and yet this fedexal guy couldn’t accept it!

            Did ‘that’ particular poster say that Delpo could’ve beaten this Fed?? Huh?

            Can you seriously differentiate the difference, huh? Not difficult to figure out right? I thought that’s common sense?

          • Did I say that “that” poster say DelPo could have beaten this Fed. I just copied what that poster said on the first page of the thread .

            I said that there is a junk poster here who always brings out this could’ve would’ve junk .

          • And you fedexal is trying to bait others by posting could’ve, should’ve scenarios and you are calling others hypocrites?? Have some manners, you’re obviously lacking in that area.

  7. This was one of the match I was worried but at the end it happens to be a straight sets win for Fed. Some of them may say Fed not playing that well or not to his standard but defeating an inform Berdych in straight sets with one tiebreaker should be considered good. You can’t imagine Fed to be in God mode in all his matches and expect him to have a scoreline with mostly double break of serves in every set.
    It might look that Fed not playing great because of his unforced errors but one has to understand he plays a rushing game and doesn’t give opponent enough time to react but while doing so he too can’t construct a point so errors tends to happen, so while judging Fed’s form you need to see it bit differently like winners to unforced errors and just not concentrate on errors. Fed might have more unforced errors than Rafa even when he would have played one of his best match but then there would be a big difference in winners.
    If Fed plays such an aggressive game and if you expect him to make very few errors and if he really makes unforced errors similar to Rafa then I don’t think there would be anyone who will ever have even a remote chance to defeat Fed.

    • Yes Fed is past his prime and he is still winning in 3 sets in tournaments where
      his younger rivals are finding it hard to complete a match. Fed’s prime is termed as “WEAK ERA”.

      • Yes, Fedexal, weak-minded “weak-era” advocates are fond of stressing that Nadal was still a baby from 2004-07, whilst forgetting that Fed was in his prime in those years and was past his prime from 2011, when Rafa and Novak were in their’s.

        5-6 years is practically a generation in men’s tennis, and explains a lot of the various disagreements between fans of the big three.

          • Ramara, look at Federer’s results from 2011 through mid 2014, and then compare them with his results

            a) before that time; and
            b) since that time

            What we see is that his results were best during 2004-10, which was his prime, and that they declined after that point, until mid 2014, which is totally normal.

            What has happened since mid 2014? Fed changed (and got used) to a larger racquet. That best explains his greater success in the last 3 1/2 years, which otherwise makes no sense (unless he is taking PEDs). Tennis players do not improve between the ages of 33-36.

            Federer played some of the best tennis of his life in 2017. However, he is well past his prime. There is every reason to think that he would have been even better from 2004-11 if he had played with a larger racquet during those prime years.

  8. The thing is when he plays Chung, he’s playing against the momentum of Ching as well. He’s never played against him before. If Fed plays Chung like he’s Chung he will lose the match, Fed needs to play his like he’s playing Djokovic. Chung beat Novak in three sets that’s danger for anyone

    • Federer is going to blow Chung away. The kid’s good but not that good. Yet. He’s going to get a master class from the old master.

      • Chung is a decent player no doubt but what in form player has he beaten who’s ever done anything at a slam???

        #ReturnOfTheWeakEraAllOverAgain

    • Fed will show Chung that Chung is “next-gen” champion. A 36 year oldie still reigns current generation.

      I am not wondering, since Fed is well past his prime and aged as well, he still is winning decent. I wonder the era in which we saw Fed at his best 2004-07, would anyway be categorized as a Weak Era” irrespective of the competition just because Fed best is head and shoulders above everyone else.

      • 04-07 Weak Era fed is not as good as recent fed.

        Recent fed stats prove that out.

        Just like fed to win easy draws, all night matches but one when the rest of the Big five are not in form.

        #ReturnOfTheWeakEra
        #TennisHasAPeRFectSteroidProblem

    • Stop reaching, Oliver. If Fed treats Chung like Djokovic, he wins. If Fed treats Chung like Chung, he wins. If Fed treats Chung like Oprah Winfrey, he wins. Bottom line: he’s gonna win.

        • If you want to say I have multiple ids blah blah , name two user ids and we can get ip’s checked .

          But if you are proved wrong, would you get lost then or shamelessly linger on like you have done till now ?

          • Hawktard, my one and only, you are special to me, a special kind of Moron, please when you mention my name show me some respect OK.

            I like Rafa and even though I didn’t want him to win the title, I like him and i respect his talent, sportsmanship etc

            Hawktard please stop being foolish, try and be decent or at least hide your stupidity and stop acting like a brainless Moron.

            #ReturnofthestupidEra
            #Myoneandonly😂😉

          • ip’s are easily masked with a simple chrome add-on.

            And you are the same racist homophobe that you were when you were banned on tennistalk years ago.

            You and stanley have much in common.

          • Pop goes the Moron, when will you learn, you are a sad filth and I am tired of feeling sorry for you.

            As a black man I know that you are a racist, you project who you are upon others because they disagree with you and expose your foolishness.
            You are trying to normalize racism but it won’t work, you are a racist Fool.

            An obsessive ignorant sadist who is consumed and blinded by immorality, hate, deception etc honestly you lack wisdom and you are a waste.

            You are a failure & U failed again, try again later Moron, you might win this time.
            I hope you change for the better.

            #ReturnofthestupidEra

          • Oh so, you know all the techniques. So, what are your other ids. I have already seen hawk** other ids.

            Any sane person wont have his id prefixed with “hawk” so that he is not mistaken as yet another guy in closet.

        • Hawkeye, I always keeps reading comments from others, I actually don’t like commenting as I am not good at it but I like reading others. Today I was happy after Fed won so was going through all the posters here.
          I like yours, lucky star, Nny, VR, Benny posters but unfortunately you will dislike my comments as I am Fed fan and most of them are Nadal fans here. I will disappear again but only from writing but will always follow.

          • I like comments from most fedfans here because they are very reasonable and well thought out. Benny, Kevin, Eugene are great fedfans here just to name a few.

            There are only a few extreme fedfan bad apples here (and just two obvious racist homophobes who don’t even try to hide it). They are the exceptions.

          • Thanks hawks I enjoy your comments as well, even the ones I disagree with. And I am a fan of the sarcasm as well 😂 #DontForgetHerbert

  9. @Ricky – There are enough comments already which are accusing people of calling racist. High time hawkeye is banned . If you want to ban me, thats fine too. But this guy’s false accusations need to be stopped

  10. This needs to stop. If you have an issue with someone, then email Ricky. We should be talking tennis.

    Federal, this is being beaten to death already. You have made your point. Many times. Now it’s time to let it go. You aren’t any better than the person you are attacking if you do the same thing.

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