Australian Open expert picks conclude with the one of the best rivalries in tennis history: Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal. Ricky Dimon and Cheryl Murray are joined by Tennis Acumen‘s Pete Ziebron and Mert Ertunga of Mertov’s Tennis Desk.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (2) Rafael Nadal
Ricky: I see this ending in one of two ways: either Rafa wins in a rout, or Djokovic pulls out another epic thriller. The former once looked like a possibility because of the Spaniard’s ridiculous current level, but not after Djokovic humiliated Lucas Pouille 6-0, 6-2, 6-2 on Friday and conserved energy by dropping a grand total of six games in his quarterfinal and semifinal matches. This is going to be another absolute battle between the two all-time greats. In a close one, Djokovic has the edge–at least mentally. The Serb is 8-2 in their last 10 matchups following last summer’s memorable triumph in the Wimbledon semis and he has not lost to Nadal on a hard court since the 2013 U.S. Open final. On this surface and especially on this specific court (Djokovic is already a six-time AO champion), you can’t pick against the world No. 1. Djokovic in 5: 3-6, 6-2, 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-5.
Pete: With a win, Djokovic would hold each of the last three major trophies and secure his seventh Australian Open title. With a win, Nadal would win in Melbourne for the second time and first time in 10 years AND be just two majors behind Roger Federer heading into Roland Garros. Plenty at stake for both great champions! Nadal has been extremely efficient in his march to the final and has not dropped a set. Djokovic had not yet flipped the switch on the best tennis he could produce until his thrashing of Pouille in the semifinals. As a result, the battle between the top two players in the world should produce a high-level match. Djokovic is just a bit more comfortable on hard courts and in Melbourne. Djokovic in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(5), 7-6(4).
Cheryl: The most prolific rivalry in the open era is about to add a 53rd chapter. Not only are Djokovic and Nadal the Nos. 1 and 2 players in the world, they have also rather emphatically outperformed the rest of the field over the fortnight. That Nadal has been more impressive overall is less significant than it would be under any other circumstances…and that’s because his opponent is Djokovic. Somehow Rafa manages to find ways to lose to Novak even when he was the better player (see exhibit A: Wimbledon 2018). And yet, I can’t help but notice that Nadal is unusually confident this time around; he’s hitting a ton off both wings AND serving well for a change. Djokovic, for his part, hasn’t been quite as dominant, but as is his custom he has played better with each round–culminating in the torching he just gave Pouille in the semis. Nadal in 4: 6-3, 5-7, 7-6, 7-6.
Mert: This is a tough pick because neither player was substantially challenged on the way to the final (except maybe Novak at one point in the third set against Medvedev), thus making it hard to predict how they would handle an opponent that comes up with answers to the best that they have to offer. I am assuming there will be at least two, if not three, momentum swings in the match in which one does problem-solving and gets the upper hand only to see the other do the same to him later. I believe Novak’s ability to absorb Rafa’s power and send those shots back with interest will ultimately make the difference. Rafa’s serve may be better, but he will also be serving against the best returner in the game. Djokovic in 4: 7-5, 7-6, 4-6, 6-4.
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If this performance really does affect Rafa for the rest of the season, does that mean Thiem has a good chance of winning Roland Garros?
I think that would be great for men’s tennis, get a new name on one of those major trophies.
GOAT debate is interesting. If Rafa cannot catch Fed that mans someone is stopping him and that has to be Djoker only. So, if Rafa fails to catch Fed, Djoker would.
Fedexal it is just a bit of fun hun, dont take everything so seriously, just throwing in a variable ….
Djoker on the verge of his second NCGS.
Cue the media crickets.
Congrats DjokerNole and NoleFam.
If it can’t be Rafa, I’m happy it’s Nole.
Djoker on the verge of his second NCGS.
Cue the media crickets.
Congrats DjokerNole and NoleFam.
If it can’t be Rafa, I’m happy it’s Nole.
NNY must be feeling very disappointed now about Rada’s Loss, after getting so nervous before the match.
I think in future, I won’t get nervous when Rafa is to meet Djoko on the HCs, because I have to expect a loss until Rafa proves me wrong; that way, with no expectations, I will feel better before the match.
Yeah nny I hope you are ok. Sorry silly question i know you will be really gutted like me. We just have to believe that rafa will regroup and be able to put things together for RG.
Really sorry hon. Love, xxx
Just came here. So it was a horrible anticlimax. I read vr’s post carefully and he said that Rafa was a bag of nerves and he had never seen his baseline game disappear like this in a slam final. That is very worrying…vr also said however well Nole played Rafa was just playing crap, mishitting neutral balls and not going for the fhdtl, which is the shot he has to play against Nole and the one he has been hitting brilliantly all tourney. So that is really worrying. Rafa said he never expected to get to a slam final after months out so maybe deep down he didn’t believe he was ready. I always feared that the wimby match would scar rafa which is partly why I was so upset at the time.
Feeling gutted for him.
Love Rafa come what may!!💖💖💖
Rafa says he needs more matches under his belt…it’s too soon from injury n he is n was not ready for djoko yet n he needs to keep improving…
Mira are you ok darling?
Hugs!!!xxx
Oh God amy!….i feel like a herd of elephant just stomped me!!…Urgh!!….so painful!!….My kids reaction of Rafa’s loss…”looks like we have to eat instant noodles 2nite sis!…damn Rafa for losing!”….hahahaha….
Rafa wreak havocs for everyone amy!…even to my innocent kids!..hehehe…
How about u amy??Okay?…Btw….group hugs!!
Well I didn’t watch mira! At one level that is a merciful relief but it also means I have to comment second hand. I think from reading the thread rafa was paralysed by nerves however well Nole played. So I am actually very very worried because rafa is never like this in a slam final! Never! This has to be very scarring for him.😢😢
Big hug and kisses darling!!
Hey amy!…God!…i feel like a herd of elephant wearing heels just stomping me!…right on inappropriate places Urgh!!…
Rafa wreaked havoc to everyone including my innocent kids amy!…After Rafa lost,my son said “d@$& Rafa!…he lost & we all have to eat instant noodles 2nite”!…hehehe…
Ohh…how r u doin’ amy?…heartbroken or heartache?…Urgh!..both r terrible!..that’s 4 sure!
Congrats to rc!!!☺
OK I have now read all the comments. Cheryl said at one point that rafa wouldn’t beat anyone in the top 20 playing like he did today. Others saying similar so this was clearly about nerves. However well Nole played it’s obvious that rafa didn’t turn up. He seems to have got stage fright and just not believed he could win. When does rafa ever concede lamely and not fight in a slam final though?!😢😢
Exactly. Inconceivable that Rafa would do this in a slam FINAL
Yes exactly vr!!! It is so peculiar and just completely and utterly out of character. Rafa is known as the biggest fighter in tennis! I am gobsmacked and very worried.
Djoko played brilliantly no doubt about that regardless of how Rafa played. Djoko’s serve was quite unbelievable, hardly missed. How I wish Rafa could serve like that always. The serve is Rafa’s greatest weakness imo.
I’m sad for Rafa, because he’s more than capable of having a great serve, had he trained from young to get one. He may have a good serve now but once he has his doubts or lacks confidence, he still misfire his serve; IOWs, he couldn’t rely on it once he lacks confidence or under pressure, unlike players who possess great serves all through their careers. The serve is such a major weapon esp on quicker courts.
Rafa hits a flatter FH during practice and I don’t understand why during matches, he continues to hit loopy FHs even on the HCs. He’s in such a mess today, ran out of ideas out there when everything didn’t work for him, even over hitting or mishitting easy shots. He said something like he wasn’t ‘suffering’ in his earlier rounds, so perhaps that affected him once he met Djoko in the final.
The problem with Rafa is that he has to suffer (tested) to gain confidence, so we here are worrying about his draw, when it’s not a tough one, he won’t get tested; but when it’s a tough draw, we worry that he gets eliminated!
Totally agree re Djoko’s serve. It was such a fine display of serving from him! Had his serve not beeb that good, he might have lost his serve once or twice. Really commendable given he had to tweak his service motion after his elbow issues. How 12 months have turned the tables!
Also, Rafa really needs to step outside his comfortzone to beat Novak. The Serb on the other hand is so much more at ease as it is pretty close to his natural style when playing Rafa. Bigger burden on Rafa’s head and today he just crumbled. NEVER has he ever underperformed like this in a slam final.
Djoko is just so comfortable playing on the HCs. To me, it’s when Fed was at his best that he could make Djoko stepped out of his comfort zone. Fed could rush the net and so took time away from Djoko because Fed has/had his great serve. Fed at his best could also use his varieties to bring Djoko to the net, out of his comfort zone.
Stan at his best too, could outhit Djoko even from the baseline. Rafa and Murray, OTOH, had to fight tooth and nail with Djoko and played a physical battle in order to beat him. If Rafa was 22 again, perhaps he could out run or out hit this Djoko from the baseline, now that he’s 32 and after numerous injuries, he can no longer stay with Djoko from the baseline.
What Rafa should do now, if he wishes to beat Djoko on non clay surfaces, is to continue to work on both his first and second serve. I noticed now that his first serve is good, his second serve has deteriorated; Rafa just can’t have all his weapons working well at the same time!
He has to flatten his FH when playing on non clay surfaces, beef up his BH DTL, so that he doesn’t have to hit his FHCC to Djoko’s strength, ie Djoko’s DHBH, all the time. A flatter FH will give Djoko lesser time to react, a loopy FH is slower through the air and so Djoko has more time getting ready to react.
Imagine Rafa hitting his FHDTL for a change, even if Djoko could get there to hit a CC FH to Rafa’s BH. Rafa could then hit a BHDTL and make Djoko run for it. At least, playing with more options would make Djoko guess where Rafa will be hitting his next shot; right now, Djoko just knows exactly where Rafa will be hitting and so he’s there waiting and worse still, Djoko could change direction at will.
Djoko has the complete set of tools to win on the HCs, in fact on any surface. Rafa OTOH is lacking something in his game to be a complete package to win on non clay surfaces imo.
You know I thought about this nuance as well. Sometimes it’s necessary to have a bit of competition in the earlier rounds, otherwise the shock in the quick level jump can be very uncomfortable.
Djoko seems a player who benefits from this most. He could play all the tourney against Lopez, Fucsovics and Fognini and then rise his level suddenly.
Among all Djoko’s opponents here, it’s the two youngest players who had done the best, Shapo and Medvedev, each getting a set. They both came with good and big serves, and Shapo had his chances to venture to the net. Medvedev wasn’t a net rushing kind of player, too bad for him, as imo he’s the most likely candidate to beat Djoko in the early rounds, if he’s not drawn into a baseline war with Djoko.
Had Rafa served better, he could’ve move to the net too but too bad, he just couldn’t get his serve right.
I’m disappointed not just because Rafa lost the final, but more upsetting is that he reverted back to his more defensive play, running behind the baseline all match.
I mean, there were times that he could’ve moved forward, stepped inside the court, but he chose to stay back and guessed where Djoko was hitting. He’s not willing to take risk when obviously what he was doing out there wasn’t working. It’s like he suddenly couldn’t think out there; very much like how Tsitsipas felt when facing Rafa!
Even Rafa’s defensive mode against Djoko is better than this. There must be a reason for this performance. He may have an injury but doesn’t want to say so. It’s like when he lost to Berdych in Australia out of nowhere in 2015, granted, that was his worst year on tour.
After winning Wimbledon, the US Open and the #AusOpen back to back, Novak Djokovic can become the 2nd man in history to twice hold all 4 Grand Slam titles at the same time (after Rod Laver)
No thanks! we want him to win RG now do we!!??
And why are we celebrating him winning wimby when if they hadn’t closed the roof rafa would very likely have won! I always felt that loss would damage Rafa.
Australian Open 2019: Rafael Nadal still looking on the bright side after straight sets loss to Novak Djokovic
AUSTRALIAN OPEN
Sarah Olle
January 27, 2019 12:29pm
SARAH OLLE@sarahjolle
Source: FOX SPORTS
Rafael Nadal remained upbeat despite his first straight sets slam final loss. (Photo by PAUL CROCK / AFP)
Rafael Nadal remained upbeat despite his first straight sets slam final loss. (Photo by PAUL CROCK / AFP)
Source: AFP
Rafael Nadal was remaining upbeat after his disappointing straight sets loss to Novak Djokovic at the 2019 Australian Open, saying he was just beaten by a “better” player.
Despite this, Nadal also conceded a limited preparation had left him exposed against the Serbian, who won a record seventh title at Melbourne Park.
“(It was) unbelievable the way that he played, no doubt about that,” Nadal said.
“But at the same time it is true that probably physically I was not able (to play my best).
“I played fantastic tennis during both weeks. But probably play that well, I did not suffer during the both weeks.”
Nadal hadn’t dropped a set at this year’s Open until Sunday night when he failed to take a set for the first time in his career at a Grand Slam final.
But the Spaniard was steadfast in his belief the loss to Djokovic was still a step forward, given he hadn’t played a competitive match since the US Open.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/tennis/australian-open/australian-open-2019-rafael-nadal-still-looking-on-the-bright-side-after-straight-sets-loss-to-novak-djokovic/news-story/48ca573c87e5a9485ab01de9769cc364
Rafa:
“(It was) unbelievable the way that he played, no doubt about that,” Nadal said.
“But at the same time it is true that probably physically I was not able (to play my best).
Rafa’s record against top 5 players on HC is in -ve its like 25-40. Djoker is sort of 66-39. So, clearly Rafa has a problem here. He was not ready, even if he had been, he would have lost .
I dont think Rafa served badly today, in fact had he served like old times he would have received a bagel/breadstick.
Off late I have seen that Rafa is becoming a worse returner. He has not broken Fed in last 3-4 matches, today also he was guessing Djoker’s serve direction. He has to work on his return game a lot.
I believe he plays Acapoulco next and then Indian Wells, we might see change in schedule after that and he might skip Miami.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3s4-VO1Xq7g
Well I am very reassured after listening to this. Rafa was very pragmatic and upbeat saying he was prouder of the last 2 weeks than wimby because of the greater degree of difficulty. He explained how incredibly tough the injuries had been and how he had had a limited off season because he was impeded and only practised offense not defence. He said he couldn’t defend as he needed to and couldn’t run 100%. He said the wimby loss hurt more because he was on a run of matches and form while he played AO in a vacuum.
He was utterly pragmatic saying he needed a. More matches b. Time to really practice without being impeded.
Also said he hadn’t had to suffer earlier in tourney but main emphasis was on lack of match practice before and not being able to practice as he needed to in the off season.
Hey nny, alison, mira can I reference my post above which paraphrase s rafa’s press conference! We need to put things in realistic context!