Australian Open expert picks conclude with the one of the best rivalries in tennis history: Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal. Ricky Dimon and Cheryl Murray are joined by Tennis Acumen‘s Pete Ziebron and Mert Ertunga of Mertov’s Tennis Desk.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (2) Rafael Nadal
Ricky: I see this ending in one of two ways: either Rafa wins in a rout, or Djokovic pulls out another epic thriller. The former once looked like a possibility because of the Spaniard’s ridiculous current level, but not after Djokovic humiliated Lucas Pouille 6-0, 6-2, 6-2 on Friday and conserved energy by dropping a grand total of six games in his quarterfinal and semifinal matches. This is going to be another absolute battle between the two all-time greats. In a close one, Djokovic has the edge–at least mentally. The Serb is 8-2 in their last 10 matchups following last summer’s memorable triumph in the Wimbledon semis and he has not lost to Nadal on a hard court since the 2013 U.S. Open final. On this surface and especially on this specific court (Djokovic is already a six-time AO champion), you can’t pick against the world No. 1. Djokovic in 5: 3-6, 6-2, 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-5.
Pete: With a win, Djokovic would hold each of the last three major trophies and secure his seventh Australian Open title. With a win, Nadal would win in Melbourne for the second time and first time in 10 years AND be just two majors behind Roger Federer heading into Roland Garros. Plenty at stake for both great champions! Nadal has been extremely efficient in his march to the final and has not dropped a set. Djokovic had not yet flipped the switch on the best tennis he could produce until his thrashing of Pouille in the semifinals. As a result, the battle between the top two players in the world should produce a high-level match. Djokovic is just a bit more comfortable on hard courts and in Melbourne. Djokovic in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(5), 7-6(4).
Cheryl: The most prolific rivalry in the open era is about to add a 53rd chapter. Not only are Djokovic and Nadal the Nos. 1 and 2 players in the world, they have also rather emphatically outperformed the rest of the field over the fortnight. That Nadal has been more impressive overall is less significant than it would be under any other circumstances…and that’s because his opponent is Djokovic. Somehow Rafa manages to find ways to lose to Novak even when he was the better player (see exhibit A: Wimbledon 2018). And yet, I can’t help but notice that Nadal is unusually confident this time around; he’s hitting a ton off both wings AND serving well for a change. Djokovic, for his part, hasn’t been quite as dominant, but as is his custom he has played better with each round–culminating in the torching he just gave Pouille in the semis. Nadal in 4: 6-3, 5-7, 7-6, 7-6.
Mert: This is a tough pick because neither player was substantially challenged on the way to the final (except maybe Novak at one point in the third set against Medvedev), thus making it hard to predict how they would handle an opponent that comes up with answers to the best that they have to offer. I am assuming there will be at least two, if not three, momentum swings in the match in which one does problem-solving and gets the upper hand only to see the other do the same to him later. I believe Novak’s ability to absorb Rafa’s power and send those shots back with interest will ultimately make the difference. Rafa’s serve may be better, but he will also be serving against the best returner in the game. Djokovic in 4: 7-5, 7-6, 4-6, 6-4.
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Cheryl, was the roof closed or opened, didn’t watch the match? haha. i am telling you, djokovic fu**ing owns the butt picker.
The problem with Rafa’s return – I understand that he’s comfortable returning from so far back, but, once he hits the return, he should move forward quickly and either stays close to the baseline or steps inside the court so that he could take time away from the server’s next shot. He’s staying so far back thus giving his opponent time to hit the next shot and worse still, his opponent may just come forward to the net to take control of the point.
I really don’t like how he returned the serve out wide to his BH on the deuce court. He tends to move so far out to his right trying to return CC at an acute angle but by doing that he leaves his FH corner wide open and has a hard time running back to cover that corner once his opponent successfully come forward to the net to intercept his return. I mean, since he’s out there, why not for a change hit a BH DTL return around the net post instead? I hope he practices that return for a change.
I would also like to see him learn how to block back the returns, not always hitting hard to return serves.
Congrats to Novak Djokovic, well done!!!
Rafa played well in this tournament so to all the rafans here don’t feel too sad ok.
Novak played better and deserves to win.
Rc please don’t feel you have to go into hiding because Nole won in such a beatdown! No-one is cross with him for being so good!
Missing you RC, love and hugs 🙁
Missing you RC hugs 🙁
Nny darling I am worried about you! I hope you aren’t too upset. Love xxxx
lol rafatards having a nervous breakdown, this is too good. she is on some heavy stuff as we speak. lol. i am sure she is gonna come out with a poker face once the benzodiazepines have worn off.
It is too bad that this piece of human trash has to come out whenever Rafa loses. Talk s about being on meds! What could make anyone so utterly miserable that they come on a forum just to lie and spread hate? It is so so sad when you have no life. Hate is s toxic poison that corrodes one’s soul. I don’t think there is any medicine or help for a loser who crawls out of his hole to throw around trash talk. The ultimate cowardice, hiding behind an anonymous screen name!
amy,
I will be fine. Unlike the hater here, I have everything in perspective. I will go about my life as always. The same cannot he said for this piece of human garbage. So sad that this person has an empty life with nothing to fill it.
Nny good to see you here! Of course I know you will be fine. I just ignore rubbishgoat who is too pathetic a troll to bother with.
amy,
You know what is important. It was a tennis match and nobody died. It is not life and death. Of course I wanted Rafa to win, but it just did not happen. As it settles in, I think that maybe it was unrealistic to think Rafa could be ready for Novak after being off for so long and the injuries and the ankle surgery.
You know what it means to lose someone you care about. I have had some serious health problems in the last two years. Those are things that are of real importance. Perspective is very important.
Great to see the gang here! You, Alison, rc, Mira. I am with rc in being involved in the political crisis we have here in the states. This is a very difficult time and seeing federal workers going through so much suffering because of the monster Orange Menace, has been hard to watch.
I will discuss that on the non-tennis forum. But o think we are heading for a political crisis in this country, based on the Orange Menace’s latest threats. Something is going to have to be done now about him. I do not think it can wait.
Rafa will live to fight another day! As long as he is healthy, that is what is important. If he can just keep playing and get more matches under his belt, that should set him up for the rest of the year.
NNY and Amy so sad that some posters only turn up to have a good gloat at Rafas expense otherwise pff gone, not true tennis fans best ignored, on to clay hope our guy shines there, question why do posts keep on dissapearing , congratulated RC twice and posts have gone hmm ….
Good to see you Alison! Posts routinely disappear here.
Yeah rubbishgoat only ever turns up when rafa loses so is no tennis fan.
Getting a bit tired of even some rafa fans running him down. The guy hasn’t played since USO with surgery and injury so was a huge achievement to get to the final. But he wasn’t remotely ready to play Nole there.
Rafa was absolutely brilliant in his semi , and spent a lot less time on court to reach a Slam final , I don’t know how you can say he wasn’t remotely ready.
Thanks, alison, amy, and Nny and Mira Andy and anyone who thought of me. I’m not in hiding – you are all on my mind. And I think there is a bracket to do — or maybe it’s already too late.
Anyway, yeah I didn’t watch either match yet. The WTA one hurts because Petra lost. And I’m sure most here are disappointed and surprised at the Rafole. I was surprised. Rafa looked too strong all tournament to lose in straight sets, sheesh. I’m curious to watch both matches now – want to see how Petra lost – I just was happy to see they went the distance. But the scoreline for the Rafole, wow. Nole must have been holding something back or Rafa was just unable to play as well vs Nole as he did the others. Love you all.
I’m still all caught up in the daily Orange Shitler drama -and what the talking heads on Sunday morning political shows are saying.
Hope to see some of you in the brackets.
Very proud of Nole making 7 AO’s and 15 GS. And I expect Rafa to win FO for the umpteenth time! Both could pass Federer at this rate. Commies to the Fed fans here. And hoping Andy Murray tries the surgery and comes back. Hip surgery worked for Bob Brian – says he’s happy he did it.
Thanks for the Murray and Djokovic comments RC , hope Murray comes back, he’s still too young !
I haven’t seen either final but am about to watch the mens, but knowing the result kinda spoils it !
And yes , Ive just done the two WTA brackets this week, had Petra winning in St Petersburg but theres always the chance she’ll pull out .
And thanks for your very sane and welcome relpy, Big Al! Oh dear, I hope I didn’t miss the deadline for St. Petersburg. Yeah, I probably won’t pick Petra to win there. She’s probably due for a little rest.
NNY, good to hear that you’re fine. You’re so nervous before the match, hope you’re not too disappointed after the loss.
I think we have to accept that Djoko is a better player than Rafa on the HCs. Rafa’s game is made for clay – his topspin forehand, his court position behind the baseline, and his not so great serve.
We maybe expecting too much too soon from Rafa (well Rafa gave us false hope by doing so well before the final). I seriously thought that if Rafa could serve well and then move forward into the court, he would be able to win the point by pushing Djoko back while coming forward to win the point. It turned out not to be the case, as Rafa didn’t get that many first serve right, and Djoko was able to return many of them with interest. I feel Rafa needs more serve down the T, he’s serving out wide too often it’s predictable.
I think Rafa will make use of Feb to fine tune his game, I really hope that he can try to be quicker between points, I see he’s always looking at the shot clock, as if he’s always worried to go over the time limit. It did put pressure on his first serve. To me if his second serve is up to the mark (like in 2017) he would probably be less pressurized when hitting his first serve. His second serve needs more work imo.
There are many things Rafa could improve on besides his serve – his ROS, his BHDTL, his court position etc – hopefully he can address all those during Feb and plays better starting at Acapulco.
Thanks Amy well said great post XX
Xxx Alison!
NNY great post from you too XX
grassgoat always speaks truth! he ain’t no troll haha. and please keep this foul imperialistic warmongering deep-state liberal politics out of the tennis forum.
rubbishgoat,
Go crawl back in your hole! Your politics solid as stupid and ignorant as your tennis trash talk! Did the men in the white coats let you out of your cage? LOL!
Your politics SOUND as stupid and ignorant as your garbage talk about tennis!
Get a life! Find something worthwhile to do with your pathetic life! Stop hiding behind an anonymous screen name! Coward!
Yep. Nailed it. Nny.
Grassgoat you are funny 🤣🤣🤣
Grassgoat just take it a little easy with the gals they are not feeling too good their player lost so try to understand.
i like when they are hysterical and unhinged 😉
You use offensive language though
And, he is a troll. Imperialistic liberal? who is that? Warmongering deep state. Ouch get your tin foil hat on before your brains explode, Trumpy troll. Your information and propaganda is way out of date.
rc,
Yes we have another Trump troll here. I thought his phraseology was hilarious! You know that someone has been parroting the Trump propaganda on FOX! That is because he cannot think for himself! They tell them what to think and then they blabber on spouting this gibberish. Never mind, he has no idea what he is talking about! Isn’t it sad when someone has to be told what to say or think because they have no brains?
This jerk comes out when Rafa loses, trying to stir up some trouble. In his case, I don’t think meds will work! Too late!
lol, Nny.
Pretty sure gg is someone I used to read somewhere, here or tennis-x. Putiny/Trumpy troll. Nothing against the common Russian – I figure they are similar to myself. I just don’t like Putin or any Monarchs that kill, poison, or dismember their critics, journalists, and opponents. Also irritates me that Oligarchs have so much Kompromat on US Senators and other slimy politicians in powerful places (see Lindsey Graham, McConnell, Paul Ryan, Ted Cruz, Paul Rand) yeah, and the useful idiot in the white house and his cabinet of fools. Look up John Bolton if you like warmongering.
you are a mess.
this is how your democracy works: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQouKi7xDpM Kevin Shipp, CIA Officer Exposes the Shadow Government
Trump is your own product, i am not american and i am very proud on that fact. your military complex killed millions of people after the WW2 till today. please stfu.
No it’s not and I don’t have to stfu, you mf tin foil maga hat. Nor would I waste my time on your conspiracy theories. Nobody has that shit straight. Mr. Genius.
And. More corruption is not what I’m fighting for. Transparency, a potus that can show me their taxes and not get away with sexual assault and other crimes/ does not collude with powers that want to destroy break apart democracy. Democracy is never a done deal. We have really gone away from the plan – a fair, just, well-balanced plan – both parties are at blame. Mostly Repubs lately….since lets say maybe Teddy Roosevelt or Abe Lincoln. Can’t name an honest in the last 60 years.
We are far off the mark. But I’d rather fail and try again than accept being subservient to a slimy criminal con man like the Orange mobster family.
Lol…such a trumpy/putiny Breitbart, Ann Coulter, Shawn Hannity loving troll.
Yep, you are a hater, all right. Not even American, hey? well troll. You are not going to get your wish as soon as you think – as regards the breaking to pieces the the good in America. There are more of us fighting for it than are wanting to undermine it and see it fail to suit your doomsday for America dream.
Not so fast. We will keep trying. Sorry about that, there is too much to love about freedom.
my assessment is pretty accurate though.
No. You drank the kool-aid long long ago. Probably a criminal yourself at some point to be so paranoid.
rc,
I don’t believe this idiot is not American! You cannot believe a word this lunatic says. He is desperately looking for attention and will say anything that gets it.
This is a know-nothing ignoramus. Even he does not believe what he is saying. Trump has pretty much been exposed for the criminal and traitor that he truly is. He will get what is coming to him. Look at all the indictments and convictions and arrests. It’s getting closer and closer to him and even he knows it.
We all saw it for ourselves in Helsinki when he completely caved to Putin on a national Sl stage. He is bought and paid for, fold out his country and now is spouting the Russian party line. We don’t know yet just how much damage he has done. How many secrets, how much intelligence he has given away. But he will be taken down.
Those of us who love our country and treasure it’s Constitution and freedoms will keep on standing up and fighting. We will not be silent, our voices were heard in November and now the Democrats are going to take it to Trump. His days are numbered.
He SOLD out his country!
rc,
I am going to the non-tennis forum to discuss this. I don’t want to talk about it here where we are supposed to talk about tennis.
I always enjoy talking to you about what is happening in our country.
I will try my best to ignore this wretched moron and his hate speech.
Native,
You have really changed, I am not a frequent visitor of the site unlike before but you have become less lady like, you are now more aggressive and more vulgar.
What happened? I know we disagree on some important things but please don’t let foolish/corrupt women and men poison you with bad characters.
Hmm…
Maybe someone hacked into NNY account?
Those kind of stunts are really popular these days…
Grassgoat don’t mind them ok, some of them are angry because Rafa lost so they are frustrated and are directing their anger towards you so try to understand them.
They are also wrong and a little deceived when it comes to morality and real life issues.