Australian Open expert picks conclude with the one of the best rivalries in tennis history: Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal. Ricky Dimon and Cheryl Murray are joined by Tennis Acumen‘s Pete Ziebron and Mert Ertunga of Mertov’s Tennis Desk.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (2) Rafael Nadal
Ricky: I see this ending in one of two ways: either Rafa wins in a rout, or Djokovic pulls out another epic thriller. The former once looked like a possibility because of the Spaniard’s ridiculous current level, but not after Djokovic humiliated Lucas Pouille 6-0, 6-2, 6-2 on Friday and conserved energy by dropping a grand total of six games in his quarterfinal and semifinal matches. This is going to be another absolute battle between the two all-time greats. In a close one, Djokovic has the edge–at least mentally. The Serb is 8-2 in their last 10 matchups following last summer’s memorable triumph in the Wimbledon semis and he has not lost to Nadal on a hard court since the 2013 U.S. Open final. On this surface and especially on this specific court (Djokovic is already a six-time AO champion), you can’t pick against the world No. 1. Djokovic in 5: 3-6, 6-2, 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-5.
Pete: With a win, Djokovic would hold each of the last three major trophies and secure his seventh Australian Open title. With a win, Nadal would win in Melbourne for the second time and first time in 10 years AND be just two majors behind Roger Federer heading into Roland Garros. Plenty at stake for both great champions! Nadal has been extremely efficient in his march to the final and has not dropped a set. Djokovic had not yet flipped the switch on the best tennis he could produce until his thrashing of Pouille in the semifinals. As a result, the battle between the top two players in the world should produce a high-level match. Djokovic is just a bit more comfortable on hard courts and in Melbourne. Djokovic in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(5), 7-6(4).
Cheryl: The most prolific rivalry in the open era is about to add a 53rd chapter. Not only are Djokovic and Nadal the Nos. 1 and 2 players in the world, they have also rather emphatically outperformed the rest of the field over the fortnight. That Nadal has been more impressive overall is less significant than it would be under any other circumstances…and that’s because his opponent is Djokovic. Somehow Rafa manages to find ways to lose to Novak even when he was the better player (see exhibit A: Wimbledon 2018). And yet, I can’t help but notice that Nadal is unusually confident this time around; he’s hitting a ton off both wings AND serving well for a change. Djokovic, for his part, hasn’t been quite as dominant, but as is his custom he has played better with each round–culminating in the torching he just gave Pouille in the semis. Nadal in 4: 6-3, 5-7, 7-6, 7-6.
Mert: This is a tough pick because neither player was substantially challenged on the way to the final (except maybe Novak at one point in the third set against Medvedev), thus making it hard to predict how they would handle an opponent that comes up with answers to the best that they have to offer. I am assuming there will be at least two, if not three, momentum swings in the match in which one does problem-solving and gets the upper hand only to see the other do the same to him later. I believe Novak’s ability to absorb Rafa’s power and send those shots back with interest will ultimately make the difference. Rafa’s serve may be better, but he will also be serving against the best returner in the game. Djokovic in 4: 7-5, 7-6, 4-6, 6-4.
[polldaddy poll=10222092]
The same could be argued that Novak has returned to winning form because Fedal have regressed slightly, Roger due to age, Rafa due to injuries ? ….
Nope – because Rafa has been stopped by Nole in 2 of the last three by Novak and likely also in the USO final if he was not injured in the semi.
I tend to agree with Alison here; Rafa imo has past his best on grass and may never recover that kind of form of 2008, whilst Djoko is playing very well on grass since 2011. So we missed peak Rafa vs peak Djoko on grass.
On HCs, Djoko always has Rafa’s numbers ever since he beat Rafa at Miami QF in 2007. It’s only at the slams that Rafa has his chances. Djoko is always a better HC player than Rafa. Rafa has past his physical peak and even though his tennis is better now than before, it’s very difficult for him to beat Djoko on the HCs.
To me, Rafa has missed the train so often due to injuries esp during his peak from 2008 to 2014. Djoko like Fed, seldom gets injured.
All three do benefit from the other one or two’s absence from time to time, but you have to be good enough in order to take advantage of that.
2011 was definitely peak Rafa vs Peak djoko on grass with Rafa having reached the last 4 finals. Last year wimbledon was not peak Rafa but was not peak Djoko either. R
Rafa is only a favorite against Djoko on clay now and that too after this rout may not be the case
Nah, 2011 Rafa wasn’t at his peak on grass; he had his foot problem when playing against Delpo in the QF; to me, Rafa peaked on grass in 2008, that’s the best version of him on grass. I think for Djoko, his peak on grass was in 2011; for his other wins in 2014/2015 and 2018, he did struggle in the early rounds.
Rafa’s peak on the HCs imo was at USO2010, he was unbelievable from start to finish during that tournament. He only lost a set in the final and certainly wasn’t playing attritional tennis to win the title. The serve is so important when playing on the HCs. His USO2013 was also great (together with his Montreal/Cincy wins), and he was being aggressive then but had to be drawn into an attritional war with Djoko in that final.
2011 definitely wasn’t peak Rafa vs peak Nole on grass! I remember that match well and Rafa made a lot of very nervy errors he would normally never make. He gifted his serve in the first set. All the British commentators remarked on how unlike himself he was and even said after the match that that clearly wasn’t the real Rafa out there.
For a rafa fan you really sound heavily biased against him vmk.
Rafa hasn’t played since the USO and he has had multiple injuries including surgery and even his off season was curtailed.
In fact I find Rafa’s performances at the USO, when he won the title, more impressive than when Djoko won his USO titles, despite Djoko reaching the USO finals a whopping eight times (more than Fed’s seven)! Djoko seemed to struggle in the early rounds more often before reaching the finals there.
Rafa won 3 out of 4 finals there (win rate 75%); Djoko won 3 out of 8 finals (win rate 37.5%, exactly half of Rafa’s).
Exactly.
Anyway Vamos Nole! IF not Rafa, Nole it is
Tsitsipas beat Djoker and Rafa blew Tsitsi off the court. What’s going on?
Congrats Novak! Well deserved win! He played great match! Rafa was not at the expected level. He didn’t show up in this final. Sad for Rafa but he didn’t have a chance in this match…
Congrats to Novak and his fans! What a performance; I’d say just about at his very best. Condolences to most (Rafa) fans here. He obviously didn’t play near the level of his previous rounds, but most of that was due to Djokovic.
Congrats to Djoko, slam no.15!
He plays great and makes Rafa plays like crap! Quite a disappointing final, like the Wimbledon and USO 2018 finals, all involving Djoko. He’s annihilating all his opponents in the finals, including the no.2 player in the world. What a player!
To me he’s better than Fed, he makes his opponents play like crap!
As for Rafa, well, go back and practice some more. Djoko has caused so much damage in Rafa’s head, imo all because Rafa isn’t a confident guy to start with. Djoko is born to dominate on the HCs; Rafa can only dominate on clay. I just hope Rafa can win his FO again, if not Djoko may have a clean sweep this year, before the next gen guys start winning at the slams.
But Luckystar, Djoker loses a lot to the NextGen.
Yeah, but the next gen are not ready to challenge at the slams yet imo.
We may be too harsh on Rafa, he’s just back from injury and hasn’t played any tournament before this AO. A player of Djoko’s caliber, who’s determined to play his best tennis in the final, will put lots of doubts in Rafa’s head and makes him nervous.
Rafa just reverted back to defensive play, and his serve, he couldn’t get his first serve right many times, and so Djoko could just attack that at will. Rafa couldnt even guess where Djoko was hitting to!
Rafa hitting CC to Djoko’s BH almost always is also a losing strategy; Djoko’s DHBH is not like Tsitsipas SHBH. Rafa played with the wrong strategy right from the beginning. I would say, had Rafa served better, he could move forward into the court and so cut down on the baseline rallies. He might able to hit some one two punches too.
Djoko has the ability to draw all his opponents into baseline wars with him, even Fed couldn’t escape that at Cincy. I feel it’s because of his great ROS, so his opponents’ serves are always under pressure, so much so that they couldn’t follow in to the net after they have served. Djoko’s ROS ability is such a great asset to him.
This match will put a lot of doubts in Rafa’s head unfortunately, even on clay.
Rafa just played rubbish tennis today.
and was made to.
@atul1985,
No it wont! If healthy, Rafa will have a shot at FO and will go on fighting. He just came back from the injury and reached the final, playing the best player in the world at his favorite tournament, so he shouldn’t be too disappointed…Rafa is persistent and much stronger than you may think!
Vamos Champ! It’s not over!
Yeah, but clay is clay. On clay Djoko’s flat shots wouldn’t work so well. The ball travels slower after bouncing on the clay surface so Rafa has all the time in the world to get to the ball and hits it wherever he wants.
There’s reason why Rafa wins so much and dominates on clay, whilst Djoko can dominate on HCs.
Did the match last less than the womens final?
Great speech, Rafa.
Vamos!
Vmk 1 we will see ….
Anyway congrats Novak and fans on GS number 15 especially RC 😉
Well that was a rout, so much for optimism….
And I was hoping that Rafa will beat him in 3 or 4 sets. How delusional hard core fans can be?
Hahahaha….Yeah Atul!…i’m one of those delusional hardcore fans….and i feel so stupid & dumb atm….I think my cow is much more smart than me right now…hahaha..Oh God!..
Me too Mira; I thought Rafa had turned a corner and became a more aggressive player, but truth is once he saw Djoko across the net, he couldn’t get his serve going.
Rafa’s loopy FH won’t cut it on the HC against Djoko’s flat shots. Djoko’s flat shots travel quicker with pace and depth. Rafa has to flatten his shots on the HCs, esp his FH. His BH is already a flat shot so Rafa, if he wants to beat Rafa on the HCs, has to learn to hit his FH flat with pace and depth too.
I still think the serve is the key for beating Djoko on HCs; if serve > Djoko’s ROS, at least the server could then move forward into the court and so cut down on the baseline rallies.
*sorry, I mean Rafa, if he wants to beat Djoko on the HCs…
This is what I meant before the match. Will his nerves be up to the level. He had the game,the improved serve, playing extraordinarily at AO. But the mental side always dictates your body. That is the centre. And it failed today. It’s an interior battle more than everything else.
Normally, he could play at least as good as Novak if he had a didferent player on the opposite side, but playing as good as Djoko.
This was painful for a neutral fan as well.
Nadal will find himself and beat Novak at RG.
Much much congrats to Novak & fans esp.RC for his stunning perfomance…
He really deserved the win….and Rafa clearly deserved the lost with the way he was playing….
To win a slam everything has to come together. Novak had it easy with Nishi retirement and facing Poulle, the perfect source of confidence building. So he came into finals feeling strong and powerful. Rafa however needed less confident Novak on the other side with his doubts and mental blockade when facing Novak. Rafa started poorly, nervously and without energy, enough for to strive and produce his best tennis.
It’s fair to congratulate Novak’s fans. He plays like a robot. He has more success against Fedal than against the new generation guys. Now we have 15,17,20 slams.
Painful indeed! Had Rafa served better, perhaps he could get into the match and maybe made it a match.
Rafa seemed too nervous to start with, and he’s playing with the wrong strategy – he not hitting his FHDTL, a sign that he’s not confident at all. The most disappointing thing about this match is that Rafa was reverting back to his old defensive way of playing, so much for all the Moya’s talk about an aggressive Rafa!
I even feel that if it’s Tsitsipas playing in the final, he’ll fare better than Rafa against Djoko, because Tsitsipas doesn’t have any mental burden against Djoko. His serve is a lot more reliable than Rafa’s; his FH is a killer shot that can counter Djoko’s, and his BH is not bad either. It’s all about match ups imo.
Congrats to the king of Australian Open and the best hard court player ever.
My honest take:
– Rafa was a pack of nerves and Djoko’s brilliance sank him so deep early on that he was never able to get to the surface.
I am not a blind fan and I can clearly distinguish when someone’s level of play makes Rafa play bad and when Rafa is actually playing crap himself.
The lopsided nature of this match was a result of the latter happening more often. So many times Rafa had neutral balls to hit forehands DTL but he just didn’t have it in him tonight to do that. His forehand DTL is the BIGGEST shot in their matchup and Novak is always very wary of that shot.
-Rafa’s first serve was actually improved! Problem was, his baseline game was MIA. He couldn’t put balls away with his forehand
-Even if Rafa had everything going his way, I am not sure if he’d still had won given his opponent’s level. However, it’d been a heck of a match.
-This will leave scars and might impact RG’s outcome. Rafa needs to vanquish his demons in a best of 3 sets and at least play a tight contest against Novak.
Lastly, I have never seen Rafa underperforming from the baseline like this in a slam final. I 0% agree that it was novak’s groundstrokes that made him play this bad because I saw enough neutral balls that were left wanting to be attacked by Rafa but he couldn’t tonight.
I am gutted but don’t care too much about Novak closing the gap. All three of them are GOATs and while Rafa is the one I love and admire most, I also admire and respect the other two!
Question just curious, and i dont usually invest too much in this topic, but how can RF be the GOAT, when Novak has better numbers at the AO, and Rafa has better numbers at the FO, and also both have more Masters 1000 titles, the only thing he has is more GS, thats why i dont believe in GOAT too many variables, also Novak is the HC GOAT, and Rafa the CC GOAT , discuss lol ????
Roger is the GrassCourt GOAT. I thought it was trivial for you to talk about Wimby if not biased.