Australian Open final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

For the first time in exactly two years, two members of the prestigious “Big 4” will square off in a Grand Slam final.

Not since the 2017 Australian Open title tilt between Roger Federer and Rafael have two all-time greats battled for one of tennis’ biggest trophies. That showdown certainly did not disappoint, and this 2019 Aussie Open championship match has all the makings of another historic contest.

It’s Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic for the 53rd time in their careers, 15th time at a Grand Slam, seventh time in a slam final, and 26th time on a hard court on Sunday night. Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 27-25–including 18-7 on this surface–with an 8-2 advantage in their last 10 matchups dating back to the start of 2015. They most recently faced each other in last summer’s Wimbledon semifinals, with Djokovic prevailing in arguably the best match of the year 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(9), 3-6, 10-8. Their only previous Australian Open encounter resulted in a similar scoreline, as the Serb triumphed 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7(5), 7-5 to win it all in 2012.

Current form suggests another blockbuster battle is in the cards, as the top two players in the world have been by far the two best throughout this Melbourne fortnight. Always one day ahead in the bottom half of the draw, Nadal was first to book his place in championship Sunday with straight-set beatdowns of James Duckworth, Matthew Ebden, Alex de Minaur, Tomas Berdych, Frances Tiafoe, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Only Berdych has pushed the second-ranked Spaniard to tiebreaker (after getting double-breadsticked in the first two sets) and other than that no one since Duckworth has even extended a set to 5-5.

Djokovic was not in quite the same ruthless form in the early stages of the tournament, but he is coming off a 6-0, 6-2, 6-2 destruction of Lucas Pouille in the second semifinal on Friday night. That was preceded by a virtual walkover against Kei Nishikori, who retired while trailing 6-1, 6-4, which means a well-rested world No. 1 has surrendered a mere six games over his past two outings–an especially ridiculous total for a major quarterfinal and semifinal.

“Obviously today was a perfect match for me from the first to the last point,” Djokovic said after crushing Pouille. “I executed everything that I intended to and even more than I have expected…. Considering the occasion and circumstances and playing semifinals here, this is definitely one of the best matches I’ve played on Rod Laver Arena in my career. Yeah, you just happen to be in that zone that we all strive for.”

The 31-year-old has been in that zone more often than not against Nadal of late and he will have to be once again in order to maintain his recent head-to-head dominance.

“He has played impressively well throughout the entire tournament,” Djokovic assured. “He hasn’t dropped a set. He looked as good as ever on the hard court throughout these few weeks. I haven’t played bad myself (the) last couple matches. I think that this finals comes at the right time for both of us. I’m sure we’re going to have a blast on the court. We can promise one thing, and that’s knowing both of us that we’re going to give absolutely everything out on the court. I think people will enjoy it….

“He’s my biggest rival in my career. I’ve played so many matches against him, epic matches on this court. Of course, the one that stands out was the finals of six hours almost in 2012. Hopefully we don’t go that long this time.”

“I have to keep doing the things that I am doing,” Nadal explained following his semifinal success, not yet 100 percent sure of his final opponent. “That’s my feeling; just keep playing the way that I am playing and let’s see. That’s my goal. I am doing a lot of things well, so I can’t complain much. I am just focused on trying to keep doing the things that I am doing (and) then expect to have one of that special days.”

It’s going to be special alright, and almost certainly competitive. But who has the edge?

Picking against Djokovic is tough, as the top seed is already a six-time champion Down Under compared to Nadal’s lone Aussie trophy in 2009. The 14-time major winner has not lost to Nadal on anything other than clay since the 2013 U.S. Open final; that’s an almost hard-to-believe statistic–and one that is impossible to overlook.

Pick: Djokovic in 5

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21 Comments on Australian Open final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

  1. OMG! that is indeed in poor taste. Either his account is hacked or he is too confident of a victory tomorro or is engaging in gamesmanship. The classy thing would have been to put a picture of the two of them sharing the podium after that memorable match
    Hope Rafa puts him in place tomorrow

    • Novak never hesitated to engage in a certain amount of gamesmanship and obviously it has served him well.
      As I said in the expert-picks thread, where Cheryl is the lone dissenting vote who picked Rafa: I hope that Rafa will make it and put Novak in his place, although my head tells me otherwise. But then again, who would’ve thought last November in London that Zverev could handle Novak easily in the final and would win in straight sets?
      I hope that the roof will stay open tomorrow, so that Novak doesn’t get the indoor advantage. While the roof technology is a blessing for the tournament organisation, tv schedules and the ticket buying audience, it has been not good for Rafa since it takes the edge off his specific strengths. Also, if the roof is closed too often, it turns a traditional outdoor event into an indoor tournament, and that is not a good development IMO.

  2. I think Rafa is prepared this time . A lot will depend on if Rafa is able to avoid cc battle of BH with Djoker’s FH.

    I dont remember last time Djoker and Rafa played with both playing well and also fresh at the same time. I think 2013 FO SF was one such occasion and it produced a heck of an encounter.

  3. All the talk about past records at the AO and Novak being in advantage makes little sense to me as Novak lost in the last two years since the change of the surface to Istomin and Chung whereas Rafa played one final and lost one QF due to injury. So how exactly is Novak the favorite in this match? Rafa wasn’t playing this well and serving with style in his two previous showings at the AO!

    Rafa should clearly be the favorite in this match! He should not be having doubts, he was a better player so far and I expect Rafa to beat this Novak! It’s all in Rafa’s head and I hope he doesn’t get mental block as he did before.

    I also don’t think Novak is the favorite if it goes to 5! Rafa is well rested and motivated! He just needs to be focused in his own service games and not let Novak get into his head!

    Vamos Champ! This is your title! 💪💪

    • Exactly Natashao! Well said!

      To me Rafa is the favourite, because:
      1) he is playing better tennis at the moment between the two;
      2) based on his past two years record here, he’s doing better than Djoko (granted Djoko was having his injury problems but so did Rafa last year);
      3) Rafa lost to Djoko by the slimmest of margins at AO2012 (when Djoko was on a winning streak against Rafa) and at Wimbledon last year (and grass was Rafa’s worse surface since 2011) so I don’t expect Rafa to lose this time when he’s obviously playing better tennis than those two times they met;
      4) Rafa is serving so well here, his serve hardly broken, just like at USO2010; of course Rafa hasn’t faced someone of Djoko’s caliber in terms of ROS, but I do believe just like USO2010, Rafa will prevail here on this quick court.

      I know Djoko is six times champion here but he has not won it when it’s played on quick HCs, so I really won’t put him as the favourite against Rafa, particularly when it’s a BO5 match. In BO3 maybe as Djoko is/was always quick out of the block in BO3, knowing well whoever wins/won the first set would certainly have the advantage in winning the match.

      Djoko may be playing the mind game here, trying to intimidate Rafa with those twitter photos or whatever,; it’s like he’s trying to remind Rafa about the past two losses. I hope Rafa ignores that, or even better, takes it as motivation to beat this Djoko.

      I do sense that Djoko is really wary of this Rafa; especially when I feel Djoko isn’t playing lights out tennis so far.

  4. Rafa is the fav for me theoretically. Let’s enjoy. This might be one of the last or the last slam final between top 3 guys. Last one was Fedal. This could be last.

  5. I keep telling myself that if Rafa doesn’t win it’s not the end of the world, but I’m not sure. I’m so nervous.

    Vamos Rafa!

  6. Rafa is so cute, he looks at the ceiling first before he does his jumping! He doesn’t want to bang his head at the ceiling this time!

    Rafa has a determined look on his face, I like that. Hope that means he won’t let nerve overcome him. Vamos Rafa, go get the title!

  7. Roger Federer, the 3rd greatest of all time behind Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.

    Who would’ve thought? Just proves once again, it’s not over until the fat lady sings!

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