For the first time in exactly two years, two members of the prestigious “Big 4” will square off in a Grand Slam final.
Not since the 2017 Australian Open title tilt between Roger Federer and Rafael have two all-time greats battled for one of tennis’ biggest trophies. That showdown certainly did not disappoint, and this 2019 Aussie Open championship match has all the makings of another historic contest.
It’s Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic for the 53rd time in their careers, 15th time at a Grand Slam, seventh time in a slam final, and 26th time on a hard court on Sunday night. Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 27-25–including 18-7 on this surface–with an 8-2 advantage in their last 10 matchups dating back to the start of 2015. They most recently faced each other in last summer’s Wimbledon semifinals, with Djokovic prevailing in arguably the best match of the year 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(9), 3-6, 10-8. Their only previous Australian Open encounter resulted in a similar scoreline, as the Serb triumphed 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7(5), 7-5 to win it all in 2012.
Current form suggests another blockbuster battle is in the cards, as the top two players in the world have been by far the two best throughout this Melbourne fortnight. Always one day ahead in the bottom half of the draw, Nadal was first to book his place in championship Sunday with straight-set beatdowns of James Duckworth, Matthew Ebden, Alex de Minaur, Tomas Berdych, Frances Tiafoe, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Only Berdych has pushed the second-ranked Spaniard to tiebreaker (after getting double-breadsticked in the first two sets) and other than that no one since Duckworth has even extended a set to 5-5.
Djokovic was not in quite the same ruthless form in the early stages of the tournament, but he is coming off a 6-0, 6-2, 6-2 destruction of Lucas Pouille in the second semifinal on Friday night. That was preceded by a virtual walkover against Kei Nishikori, who retired while trailing 6-1, 6-4, which means a well-rested world No. 1 has surrendered a mere six games over his past two outings–an especially ridiculous total for a major quarterfinal and semifinal.
“Obviously today was a perfect match for me from the first to the last point,” Djokovic said after crushing Pouille. “I executed everything that I intended to and even more than I have expected…. Considering the occasion and circumstances and playing semifinals here, this is definitely one of the best matches I’ve played on Rod Laver Arena in my career. Yeah, you just happen to be in that zone that we all strive for.”
The 31-year-old has been in that zone more often than not against Nadal of late and he will have to be once again in order to maintain his recent head-to-head dominance.
“He has played impressively well throughout the entire tournament,” Djokovic assured. “He hasn’t dropped a set. He looked as good as ever on the hard court throughout these few weeks. I haven’t played bad myself (the) last couple matches. I think that this finals comes at the right time for both of us. I’m sure we’re going to have a blast on the court. We can promise one thing, and that’s knowing both of us that we’re going to give absolutely everything out on the court. I think people will enjoy it….
“He’s my biggest rival in my career. I’ve played so many matches against him, epic matches on this court. Of course, the one that stands out was the finals of six hours almost in 2012. Hopefully we don’t go that long this time.”
“I have to keep doing the things that I am doing,” Nadal explained following his semifinal success, not yet 100 percent sure of his final opponent. “That’s my feeling; just keep playing the way that I am playing and let’s see. That’s my goal. I am doing a lot of things well, so I can’t complain much. I am just focused on trying to keep doing the things that I am doing (and) then expect to have one of that special days.”
It’s going to be special alright, and almost certainly competitive. But who has the edge?
Picking against Djokovic is tough, as the top seed is already a six-time champion Down Under compared to Nadal’s lone Aussie trophy in 2009. The 14-time major winner has not lost to Nadal on anything other than clay since the 2013 U.S. Open final; that’s an almost hard-to-believe statistic–and one that is impossible to overlook.
Pick: Djokovic in 5
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Vamos Rafa!
Exactly analysis, Ricky. It’s hard to pick against Novak in the final of AO. If he wins this, he will be again in the GOAT discussion, he will have good chances to overcome Rafa and Roger. Novak in 4 tight sets.
between 2011 and 2016 Djokovic is the dominant one ,so the safe bet is Djokovic.
But i wish if Rafa wins 🙂 anything can happen …. it is tennis .
Firstly, neither of the finalists have been tested so far. They will test each other and expose those weaknesses that weren’t exposed up to the final. I think Nadal calling Novak the favourite is a mistake, as it affect him subconsciously. No need to be overly humble. Being respectful is okay, but also confidence is a must. Hope to see a great match. Nadal looks stronger, but I don’t know if his nerves will be up to the task. Djokovic became a nightmare for him.
Nadal said Novak is favourite for today’s match ..not in final
They’ve played each other so many times, and are all too familiar with each other’s games, but it’s still a joy to watch. I’m kind of disappointed that if this one goes deep it will have to be settled via tie-breaker, but so it goes. We should at least get a decent match here, the semi’s this year were almost non-events.
Like many others, in these match-ups I generally favour Novak on the HC’s and Rafa on the clay. I think Rafa has been better through this tournament, but when the big 3 face each other it’s not uncommon to see a player suddenly raise their level, or for a match to fall into the established patterns/dyanmics of previous encounters. I’m not sure Federer really believes he can beat Djokovic any more. I think Rafa still believes but may have some doubts in the back of his mind when it’s off clay. Djokovic seems mentally pretty comfortable unless it’s Rafa on clay, but every encounter is obviously still a new one to be won/lost, despite the extensive history.
You have to wonder then – what’s changed recently: From Novak’s end I don’t think much has. I feel like he’s not quite Peak-Djoko from years gone by, and that he used to double-fault less, and maybe have a bit more weight of shot, but he’s pretty much the same player that he was in Wimby & the US Open in ’17. More has changed from Nadal’s end, the new service action really seems to be working for him. The draw has worked out nicely for Rafa, but his dominance has still been impressive. He hosed down Tsitsipas like he was nothing, yet he was still playing well enough to have taken sets off just about anyone else.
As you’ve said, if Rafa can’t beat Djoko on a HC while he’s playing like this, when can he? I’m going to tip Rafa here, as I find his form more impressive (despite Djoko’s squashing of Pouille) and I think the serve may just be enough to put Djokovic on the back foot & get over the line.
Rafa in 5.
Novak in 4
Rafa in three or four. If Rafa comes out all guns blazing, he’ll win in three; if he falters a bit, like getting nervous when serving for set(s), he may lose a set and wins in four. I don’t expect an epic five setter here.
To me Rafa is playing extremely well, whilst Djoko is his usual self. I expect an aggressive Rafa to beat Djoko, just like how he did it at USO in 2010/2013.
Of course if Rafa comes out nervous and still fearing Djoko, and so engaged in long rallies with Djoko, then he’ll be doomed! But, I honestly don’t believe Rafa will behave and play like that.
Surely won’t be straight sets either way…nerves always come into play here..
I second that Luckystar.
It all depends if Rafa plays with ‘colm’ and not hand Djokovic free points by making unnecessary errors. Rafa should just be positive and go for it.
Heart says Rafa in 4. Mind says nole in 4. Hoping the heart is right 🙂
I vote for your mind 😁
Ideeeeeeemo No1e!!!
Tiggy has picked Nole to win which is actually an auspicious omen as he is always wrong!
Vamos Rafa!!
Thats the joke in tennis.com hehe but no omen 🙂
Go rafa go..get the double career slam
I saw that, too, Amy.
Tignor’s abysmal track record as far as predicting the outcome of close-call matches are concerned is indeed a long-running insider joke. I have seen that fans of certain players asked Tignor to pick against their favorite in order to give that player a decent chance😉
Speaking of omens. The last time Kvitova has won slams – Wimby 2011,2014, Djoko has won on the mens side.
And we all know who won on the mens side when Osaka won her only slam :O
I am picking Rafa all the way! I don’t give a damn about Novak’s previous wins. I thought Ricky might go with Rafa. There are intangibles that win slams. Rafa is playing his best tennis right now. He is motivated to finally do this. I just think he is going to want it enough to leave it all out on the court.
I am thinking it will go four sets. This time Rafa will get the better of Novak and get that double career slam.
NNY, I hope you will be right and I will be wrong ☺
I’m sure, though, that Rafa will be totally motivated and give his very best. There’s more at stake than just this year’s AO title.
I just looked at several weather forecasts for Sunday. Most have it cloudy with light breeze in the range of 23-21 at the start of the match. So it is going to be a lot cooler…no rain is forecast thank God!!!
Go Nole, Go! Djokovic in 4.
Djoko took nearly 6 hours to beat Rafa at the AO 2012 in 5 sets. How does that mean that Djokovic has the edge on hardcourt? Especially when Rafa is 2:1 against him at the USO.
Well, some people said that when Rafa beat Djoko at the USO, Djoko wasn’t playing his best tennis. However, I’m also not sure that when Djoko beat Rafa at the HC slams (once at AO and once at USO), Rafa was playing his best tennis either!
Their HC slam matches weren’t straight forward affairs, and I do feel that at the USO, it’s whoever was the better player on the day won the match. Rafa was clearly the better player at USO2010 and 2013; whilst in 2011, it looked inevitable that Djoko would win the match.
Their only AO match(in 2012) could’ve gone either way, I didn’t see an obvious better player between the two, and Rafa let the lead in the fifth set slipped away, making uncharacteristic errors all thanks to his own nerve.
Djoko seems to do better in BO3 HC matches vs Rafa, winning most of those matches in straight sets. When it comes to slams, they have hard times beating each other.
I really hope and think that Rafa will win this one, because on this quicker court, the aggressor should win.
Random thought:
I know it’s pretty unlikely given that I think Fed has unofficially retired, but… how crazy would it be if Rafa won the AO, then RG, this putting him at 19 majors, and THEN Rafa and Fed met in the Wimbledon final with the possibility of tying Fed’s 20 on the line?! Hey…. anything can happen! 😁
Crazy, indeed.
I think we missed the Fedal boat at Wimbledon last year and there may not be another one anymore. Imagine Fed beating Anderson, and then Isner; Rafa could beat Djoko imo, if match could be completed within the same day in outdoor conditions. (Rafa mentioned that in the first set, he couldn’t see the ball clearly hence he lost the set rather quickly; took time to adjust to indoor lighting conditions I suppose.). Too bad that didn’t happen.
would be unreal
Hahaha….Kev!…i really love your thoughts!…but,Rafa has to WIN AO 1st…then we’re all can get crazy about your wonderful thoughts k?hehe…
Mira…no prediction ?
Ohh hey Sanju!…Hahahaha…of cozz there’s a prediction Sanju!…I will go with Rafa in 4….Most of the reasons we already know since we’ve been talking a loooottttt about it this past 2 weeks…
I just want to add 1 more here….vengeace…Rafa has suffered 3 crushing losses at Melbourne this decade….2017 to Roger & 2012 to Novak…both matches he lost when he was up a break in the 5th sets…also a very painful lost to Stan in 2014…and last year too…not to mention painful retirements against Andy & David in 2010/11…Also don’t forget the very painful lost at last years Wimby too!
And now here he is once again in the final..barred from injury…i don’t think Rafa will let the opportinity gone by him just like that sanju…i know it will be a herculean task to uppend Novak at his own playground…but painful experience can be such a driving force that can make us do something impossible to possible…especially now Rafa has readied himself with a deadly weapons that was unthinkable for us a couple of months ago…U know Sanju..i think Rafa & Moya already target AO title when they worked on his new revamped serves & new super aggressive style during the off season…it’s just us who didn’t aware of this development & their intention…I think Rafa made himself very clear this past 2 weeks with his out of this worlds perfomance how much he wanted that title…A very determined & hungry Rafa is a dangerous weapon too Sanju!….Woohoooo!!….Vamos Rafa!!!….
Ohh forgot to add..heartbroken Rafa will be very dangerous too!hehe…
Exactly what I wanted to hear mira.i think exactly the same. I just hope rafa gets it n lays all demons n pain he has suffered at AO to rest.
Stunned to see my vote, Rafa in 4, is currently the majority vote by a good margin. Clearly we are all impressed by Rafa’s clinical game, new serve, and not dropping a set on HC (sure, on clay, but HC?), even with Nole dismantling Pouille. Maybe Tsitsipas’ interview, too – Nadal’s mentally in a different “dimension” right now.
I think he’s always at his best after extended breaks, he’s in the right mental space, and if he owns 2019, he changes the conversation about the Big 3. And he knows he’s got to start by taking AO. Djokovic won’t make it easy, but Nadal is a freight train that can’t be stopped right now. 18!
Nadals the best he’s ever been on hardcourt atm and the gap between Djokovic is much less on this surface. Djokovic nearly lost to Medvedev and Nadal hasnt dropped a set.
Nadal’s forehand down the line is the shot to look for because it does so much damage. I think we all agree its impeccable right now.
The lead for total grand slams won is within reach.
Nadal in 4.
Nadal lost last years final, a match he should’ve won. He’ll be on another level for this.
Double career grand slams OTL!
On a hot sunny day, this sooooo in form Rafa would take Nole in four. (And I’d love to pick against Ricky.)
However, just with the closed roof at Wimbledon, conditions will probably be the great equalizer. onditions Cool cloudy weather will keep the ball slower.
I just hope that The GOAT gives himself his best chances by staying confident in tight moments. Otherwise, Nole will punish him if he gets passive.
(Just please, no more injuries at the AO!!!)
VAMOS RAFA NO MATTER WHAT!!!
(We gonna see, for sure, no?)
#RafaIsTheBest
#BEL18VE
Double career grand slams OTL!
On a hot sunny day, this sooooo in form Rafa would take Nole in four. (And I’d love to pick against Ricky.)
However, just with the closed roof at Wimbledon, conditions will probably be the great equalizer. onditions Cool cloudy weather will keep the ball slower.
I just hope that The GOAT gives himself his best chances by staying confident in tight moments. Otherwise, Nole will punish him if he gets passive.
(Just please, no more injuries at the AO!!!)
VAMOS RAFA NO MATTER WHAT!!!
(We gonna see, for sure, no?)
#RafaIsTheBest
#BEL18VE
Hahahaha….Yes Hawks!….BEl18EVE!
RAFA CAN DO IT!!