Australian Open expert picks conclude with the one of the best rivalries in tennis history: Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal. Ricky Dimon and Cheryl Murray are joined by Tennis Acumen‘s Pete Ziebron and Mert Ertunga of Mertov’s Tennis Desk.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (2) Rafael Nadal
Ricky: I see this ending in one of two ways: either Rafa wins in a rout, or Djokovic pulls out another epic thriller. The former once looked like a possibility because of the Spaniard’s ridiculous current level, but not after Djokovic humiliated Lucas Pouille 6-0, 6-2, 6-2 on Friday and conserved energy by dropping a grand total of six games in his quarterfinal and semifinal matches. This is going to be another absolute battle between the two all-time greats. In a close one, Djokovic has the edge–at least mentally. The Serb is 8-2 in their last 10 matchups following last summer’s memorable triumph in the Wimbledon semis and he has not lost to Nadal on a hard court since the 2013 U.S. Open final. On this surface and especially on this specific court (Djokovic is already a six-time AO champion), you can’t pick against the world No. 1. Djokovic in 5: 3-6, 6-2, 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-5.
Pete: With a win, Djokovic would hold each of the last three major trophies and secure his seventh Australian Open title. With a win, Nadal would win in Melbourne for the second time and first time in 10 years AND be just two majors behind Roger Federer heading into Roland Garros. Plenty at stake for both great champions! Nadal has been extremely efficient in his march to the final and has not dropped a set. Djokovic had not yet flipped the switch on the best tennis he could produce until his thrashing of Pouille in the semifinals. As a result, the battle between the top two players in the world should produce a high-level match. Djokovic is just a bit more comfortable on hard courts and in Melbourne. Djokovic in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(5), 7-6(4).
Cheryl: The most prolific rivalry in the open era is about to add a 53rd chapter. Not only are Djokovic and Nadal the Nos. 1 and 2 players in the world, they have also rather emphatically outperformed the rest of the field over the fortnight. That Nadal has been more impressive overall is less significant than it would be under any other circumstances…and that’s because his opponent is Djokovic. Somehow Rafa manages to find ways to lose to Novak even when he was the better player (see exhibit A: Wimbledon 2018). And yet, I can’t help but notice that Nadal is unusually confident this time around; he’s hitting a ton off both wings AND serving well for a change. Djokovic, for his part, hasn’t been quite as dominant, but as is his custom he has played better with each round–culminating in the torching he just gave Pouille in the semis. Nadal in 4: 6-3, 5-7, 7-6, 7-6.
Mert: This is a tough pick because neither player was substantially challenged on the way to the final (except maybe Novak at one point in the third set against Medvedev), thus making it hard to predict how they would handle an opponent that comes up with answers to the best that they have to offer. I am assuming there will be at least two, if not three, momentum swings in the match in which one does problem-solving and gets the upper hand only to see the other do the same to him later. I believe Novak’s ability to absorb Rafa’s power and send those shots back with interest will ultimately make the difference. Rafa’s serve may be better, but he will also be serving against the best returner in the game. Djokovic in 4: 7-5, 7-6, 4-6, 6-4.
[polldaddy poll=10222092]
WWW?
Ricky, what does WWW stand for?
Who will win? Ricky shorthand. 🙂
“Y”
its not a yes or no question….
same thing it means in all of the polls
WHO WILL WIN
RWW!
Vamos Champ!
I am an island. A lone, Nadal-picking island.
Kudos to you for having the courage of your convictions Cheryl! Last 2 slam finals they played Rafa won! Just sayin…
Great post, amy!
Natashao☺☺!!
go Rafa go!!
18 is the best number!
Not alone! Rafa in 4 or 5. Djokovic’s AO record is very impressive but he faced Rafa in only one of those 7 finals, and that one was very close. Rafa is on a mission and he’s been scary good for the whole tournament.
If Nadal has to win it, he has to do it in 3 or 4 sets.
agreed
Its not outside the realm of possibility that Nadal comes out firing and wins in 3 or 4.
How will Nole return Nadal’s new serve could decide the match.
Where do people get the idea from that Rafa can’t beat Djokovic on hardcourt? Rafa is 2::1 against Novak at the USO both times in beating him in 4 sets. In 2010, the score was 64 57 64 62 and in 2013 it was 62 36 64 61. The only time they’ve played in Australia it took 7 minutes short of 6 hours for Djokovic to win in 5 sets.
Oh God, I am very 50/50 on this. This is the best I have seen Rafa play on hard courts in a long long time and he REALLY wants it. But Novak is unstoppable in Australian Open finals. My head says Djokovic wins, but only slightly, yet I wouldn’t be surprised if Rafa takes it.
If its about Nadal playing aggressive and dominating from the off, then he wins in four at the most. But if it gets into a long battle, Djokovic usually has the mental edge.
Feels like the lead up to Wimbledon 2008 final. Both guys playing great. Maybe got as much historical significance as 2008 but not that far off in importance. Nadal is GOAT if he wins this. 18 slams with French open next.
To me this match is a toss-up. On form, I put Nadal as the slight favourite, but I think Novak has the mental edge, especially on this court. In rallies, I expect him to pull Nadal out to the FH side a lot, and generally make him less comfortable than he likes to be. I expect Nadal to have the edge in cross-court rallies to his BH.
The biggest factor in this match, imo, will be Novak’s ROS. Nadal’s serve is improved but I wouldn’t say great; and he needs to hit a higher 1st serve percentage than he has been. If he has to serve a lot of 2nd serves, Djokovic will have the advantage.
My heart says Rafa, but my brain says Novak. Rafa played great so far, but he is nevertheless still on the comeback trail after his lengthy lay off. We don’t know how his body will react if he gets really challenged, which hasn’t happened so far. It would border on a miracle if Rafa is able to win a slam final against the current no.1 player at his very first tournament since last year’s USO. This maybe too much to ask for. He has already acquitted himself brilliantly.
The Djoker hasn’t been really challenged either on his way into the final, but something tells me that he will be fine and rise to the occasion if it happens. He will have to because he has one strike against him: besides an in-form Rafa Novak will have to fight the powerful and well-documented Tignor-curse☺ Yes, that’s right – Steve Tignor has picked Novak. Tignor may get it right when it’s easy -like picking Rafa for the win at the FO – but from all the tennis experts he has the very worst track record as far as close calls are concerned.
Back to the facts: some have mentioned that Rafa won the last two slam finals against Novak: the USO’13 and the FO’14. But that’s almost five years ago. A lot has happened since then. But Novak won their most recent encounter at last year’s Wimby semis. To me that seems to be more relevant than what happened five years ago. A lot will depend on how well Rafa has put this very hurtful loss of a winnable match behind him and if he himself believes deep down that he can win tomorrow’s match.
The way Rafa is playing, don’t think he want to lose a match narrowly to Djoko again.
I feel Rafa knew why he lost that Wimbledon match, more to do with the circumstances and his own undoing (his Long match vs Delpo; he couldn’t take his chances in the third set in the SF etc). Against a tough opponent like Djoko, that would put him at a disadvantage. I’m sure he won’t want a repeat of all that again.
I think his team knows just like us, that it’s essential for him to win his matches ASAP to conserve energy and also to prevent getting injured. As Long as he’s physically fit, he won’t need to worry so much about injury and so could concentrate on going all out to win his important match(es).
I’m glad Moya and his team managed to talk and convince Rafa to play this way, when Rafa, since 2005, prefers and enjoys running after every ball and grinding both his opponent and himself to get a win.
Novak’s slam final wins over Rafa were really very close affairs that could have gone either way.
Wim 2018 – 10/8 in the fifth set
AO 2012 – 75 in the 5th set
Novak won the USO 2011 in 4 sets but Rafa also won in 2010 and 2013 in 4 sets. I will leave the FO out of this because it’s a no contest.
People talk as if there is a gulf between them in favour of Novak.
AO 17 fed was in Rafa’s position…losing record…bad h2h…never beaten rafa in a slam for 10 years ..most peoples head said rafa but fed believed n won with a more aggressive strategy ..he banished his demons..if fed could believe and do it…no reason why rafa cannot…he will come to play…Novak is the favorite yes given the history at this slam but favorites always don’t win matches…
Interesting comparison, Sanju, but I don’t think Rafa’s history with Novak is nearly as bad as Fed’s was with Rafa. Mentally, Djokovic has the edge, but he’s never faced Nadal in this form, imo, not even USO 2010 or 13.
My gut tell me Nadal is going to win this, even if Novak is slightly favoured on paper. Even though I’m not a fan, I love the aggressive tennis Rafa is playing right now.
The difference is that Roger played against Rafa who himself was on a comeback trail and hard courts are not his preferred surface and Rafa played a marathon match against Dimitrov on Friday. Rafa had gone through tough matches himself earlier against the likes of Zverev so he was not playing lights out either.
IN contrast, Rafa is returning from a layoff against a player who has won the last two slams and is spanking opponents and is the no.1 player in the world in his own den. I think Rafa can win it but he would need a truckload of help from Novak in terms of his level.
sanju, Djoker’s history at this slam as far as Rafa is concerned is 0:1 to Novak in a 6 hours 5 setter. With Djokovic’s other AO titles, he didn’t play Rafa and Rafa has pulled out of the AO with injury more times than I’ve had hot dinners, so Rafa was out of the equation for 5 of his titles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-DXMP93dD0
Rafa is playing differently now; more aggressively.
Interesting when Tsitsi said that Rafa makes you play worse, I thought that it may be the case against everyone else but one player who almost always raises his game is Novak.
Novak raises his game in finals, not only when playing against Rafa. Remember in 2016 AO when Djoko made 100 UEs when playing against Simon, but then come the SF and F, he ‘killed’ Fed and Murray playing lights out tennis.
Rafa and Djoko have played 52 times, surely Djoko knows what to expect from Rafa, unlike Tsitsipas (or Pouille who met Djoko for the first time and he was lost out there facing Djoko). Both youngsters were overwhelmed by their respective top two players.
Rafa vs Djoko, it’s almost always the more aggressive of the two would win so I hope this time Rafa is the aggressor and wins the title here.
Djokovic in 4 or 5. Put ur life on it. Eat a big one nadal
You serious? Put his life on it?? Life is too precious for a tennis match!
great write ups by all 4 experts…..but my gut says Rafa in 3.
Why do I get the feeling that it will be Rafa in 3 or 4? Just something inside tells me an anti-climax is coming.
After reading competent posts above, there is no doubt in my mind: Rafa in 2, or 1
!!?? Rafa in 2 or 1!! Do you think Nole will retire?
haha.
Just had 3 posts disappear! They’re not going into spam again are they Ricky?
I’m usually pessimistic about Rafa’s chances against Djoko but, somehow not for this one. Rafa in three
Testing!