Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand and Steen Kirby of Tennis Atlantic preview and pick the four best men’s singles matches on Tuesday at the Australian Open. Rafael Nadal and Lleyton Hewitt are the headliners.
(5) Rafael Nadal vs. Fernando Verdasco
Ricky: 2009 ain’t walkin’ through that door. Nadal is no longer the player he was when he beat Verdasco in one of the best matches ever played, a five-set thriller in the ’09 Australian Open semifinals. Unfortunately for Verdasco, he is even further from his prime at this point in time. Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 14-2, and Verdasco’s two wins can be easily explained. One came on a joke of a surface (blue clay, Madrid 2012) and the other came when Nadal was a shadow of his real self early in 2015 (Miami). The world No. 5 is much-improved now–at least against anyone except Novak Djokovic. This should be beatdown city. Nadal 6-3, 6-3, 6-3.
Steen: This Australian Open rematch is almost certain to come nowhere close to their 2009 semifinal epic. Verdasco beat Nadal in Miami last year and that should give him some belief, but they have been trending in opposite directions since then. With Nadal looking motivated to boost his ranking this year, I doubt he’ll want to dance much with a troublesome countryman. Look for Rafa to roll. Nadal 6-4, 7-6, 6-3.
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(WC) James Duckworth vs. (WC) Lleyton Hewitt
Ricky: Something is wrong if this one does not result in a five-set marathon. It is, of course, Hewitt’s last hurrah. And nothing screams “five-set marathon” quite like Hewitt vs. Duckworth at the Australian Open. Combined, five of their last eight matches at this event have gone to five sets. Given the fact that Hewitt is probably focused on more on his upcoming Davis Cup duties and general life after tennis than on his actual game, there are not a whole lot of players in this draw whom he would beat. But Duckworth may be one of them. Don’t be surprised if Hewitt wins an epic before David Ferrer sends him on his way. Hewitt 6-3, 2-6, 4-6, 6-4, 11-9.
Joey: At his age, Hewitt could be blitzed by the heavy pre-Australian Open farewell schedule (Hopman Cup, Sydney, Adelaide). This may well turn into his swan-song if Duckworth simply plays a consistent match and stays focused on winning amidst all the fanfare surrounding this one. But given the circumstances, it’s more likely Hewitt will put up a great fight and Duckworth will accede to his countryman under the lights. It would be far more fitting for Hewitt to be sent off by Ferrer, and thus I have him winning this one–somehow…regardless of form, record, or anything else. The former world No. 1 truly has nothing to lose now. Hewitt 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-5.
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Gilles Muller vs. (20) Fabio Fognini
Ricky: Fognini did not win a single hard-court match in 2015 until the U.S. Open. He has already won two this season (reached the Auckland quarterfinals before losing to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga). The Italian is obviously off to a much better start this season, but his third hard-court victory may not come Down Under. This is a bad first-round draw against Muller, who advanced to the Sydney semifinals last week. The 32-year-old Luxembourgian also made a run to the Aussie fourth round last season. In what should be a competitive contest, Muller will have the mental edge. Muller 6-3, 6-7, 6-1, 7-5.
Steen: Both veterans have started this year with winning records (4-2 for Muller and 2-1 for Fognini). Fognini’s performance at the U.S. Open last year demonstrates that when focused, he can be a top 20 hard-court player. Muller is more consistent as a cracking serve-and-volleyer, though, and the Sydney semifinalist reached the fourth round of the 2015 Australian Open. This one should be close, but Muller’s consistency will help him get the upset. Muller 5-7, 7-5, 7-6, 4-6, 6-4.
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(25) Jack Sock vs. (Q) Taylor Fritz
Ricky: Is it more than a coincidence that Sock withdrew from the Auckland final due to illness right after his favorite restaurant–Chipotle–announced it is shutting down for one day in February to hold a food-safety meeting? Hopefully not. If Sock is healthy (and he should be with two full days of rest), this all-American showdown is going to be straightforward. Fritz’s rise in the last half-year has been meteoric, but he is nowhere near ready from primetime. Although the 18-year-old came back from 4-0 down in the final set of the final round of qualifying against Mischa Zverev to win six games in a row, that had a lot more to do with Zverev than with Fritz. Sock 6-1, 7-5, 6-3.
Steen: This match would be easier to predict and more interesting if it wasn’t somewhat likely to end in a retirement. Sock has been playing well to start the season, he’s more experienced, and currently at a level well above Fritz. But the Auckland finalist had to retire this past Saturday due to the flu and looked miserable. Fritz is exhausted, as well, but making his first slam main draw as a qualifier should boost his spirits. He was lucky to qualify, and he may get lucky again if Sock is still sick. But Sock should grab a win if healthy. Sock 6-4, 6-3, 6-2.
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Vamos Rafa, no matter what!
He has nothing to prove … just try to win some as he painfully declines and that is all. Thx Champ!
Yes Shireling1, I like your positivity. Perhaps we his fans are overly eager for him to win everything or anything esp the major ones, to prove that he’s not yet done with winning and so when he loses we are all so disappointed and even become so critical of him.
Maybe we are hoping for too much, expecting him to beat everyone to get to SF or F even on his less favored surfaces. Rafa has never dominated on the HCs, even in his good years of 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2013, he’s at best the no.2 player on the HCs – in 2010 second to Fed; in 2008 and 2013 second to Novak. In 2009 he won the same or about the same number of countable points on the HCs as Novak (5950 pts or thereabut) and so was joint no.1 as Novak, so no domination too.
On grass he was good and no.1 in 2008 and 2010 and reached another three finals at Wimbledon. If there was no Fed with his five in a row Wimbledon titles, perhaps we might call Rafa’s two titles and three finals as domination on grass. So, Rafa has only dominated on clay but not on the other surfaces.
I think we have to adjust our expectations and cater for Rafa’s inevitable decline as he ages. He will have losses like this more and more going forward, just like Fed when he started his decline. We can hope that he has more good days than bad and still can win some important titles.
His best hope is still on clay where his counter punching game and his topspin FH work best. I wish Rafa well for 2016 and beyond.
“I am not happy about the way that I played the first” – Rafa said. “In the fourth I was not very bad, but he played better than me, too. I had my chances in the fourth, too, with that 0-30 that he played well. He played better than me. He played more aggressive than me. He took more risks than me, and he won. Probably he deserved”.
“He was playing amazing in the last set. If you decide everything in one set, the opponent is ready to hit all the balls at a hundred percent, then you are in trouble. He had a lot of success hitting all the balls full power in the fifth. He just played better than me”.
No. The match is a tough lose for me obviously, especially because it’s not like last year that I came here playing bad and feeling myself not ready for it. This year it was a completely different story. I have been playing and practicing great and working so much. You know, it’s tough when you work so much and such an important event comes and you go out too early”.
“There is no more things to do than keep practicing hard, keep practicing the same way that I did the last four, five months. Today I was not ready to compete the way that I was practicing, so I’m not happy with that. I hope the next time I can compete better than what I did today, because I was playing good. In terms of being competitive, I was competitive. In terms of creating damage to the opponent with my forehand, I didn’t. So I was hitting forehands, and he was able to keep hitting winners”.
“You never know what’s going on in the future. I felt myself that I was practicing great, playing very good. I was practicing a little bit different, trying to be more inside the court. It’s obvious that all the changes are not easy and especially are difficult to make that happen when you are competing. But the real thing is if I am not doing that, then I am dead. I can play defensive or offensive. But you cannot be in the middle, because it then becomes obvious that you don’t have a consistent strategy, then you are lost”.
I would say that Rafa has a strange mentality. Since he’s losing to big hitting guys time and again – the likes of Sod, Delpo, Rosol, Verdasco – and is aware that players these days are hitting big for winners quickly and not keen about point construction or whatever, then what’s he going to do to counter them? He couldnt just counterpunch against fire power hitting as he’s not given time to do so, so what’s he going to do? Obviously he hasnt found the best answer yet sincw he’s still doing the same thing over and over again.
I keep posting but none of comments come through…maybe it’s better that way…I am too sad and my posts offer no comfort to anyone…I wish I could be optimistic at least a little bit…it’s just too hard to live with yet another shocking loss…
Now I realize that my posts via phone do get through but not the ones posted via comp…whatever the reason…
Rafa: “I can play defensive or offensive. But you cannot be in the middle, because it then becomes obvious that you don’t have a consistent strategy, then you are lost”.
It was all too obvious that Rafa seemed to be in the wrong place all the time. It was as if he wasn’t thinking ahead.
Yeah you’re right. Its like he’s not thinking out there, making all the wrong shot selections.
Hewitt wins his match and will get Ferrer next! What a reward!
I do hope Verdasco can at least go far with Sela next, followed by probably Chardy in R3 and Monfils in R4. Quite a doable draw for him to reach the QF.
Now I am hoping Djoko Fed Stan and Murray all reach semis so that we can watch some good blockbuster matches without any pressure.
Hope Stan or Andy win this all.
Sanju (AT 11:51 AM),
No Rafa – no tennis.
For you maybe. May not be for everyone. The game is bigger than any player.
Sanju (AT 12:00 PM),
Yep, for me. I never identify myself as “we”.
Yes, there is still tennis. I have been watching this sport all my life and will continue to do so.
I’m hoping for Tsonga or Kei or Berdych or even Cilic to win this AO. Or even Verdasco! Perhaps Raonic gets his breakthrough here?
Very hopeful Lucky. Neither of them will win. It will be 1 of the Top 4.
Yeah I’m hopeful. Without Rafa I can now hope for other players, except the regular few, to win the title now.
I genuinely like to see either Tsonga or Berdych winning one before their careers are done. Kei and Raonic can wait.
But I refuse to believe Rafa will just fade away without 1 more slam..waiting for that elusive slam. We fans need to show maybe more faith. Fed has not won since 2012 yet his fans keep talking him up.
No one’s talking him up. Fed was 32 then and played a stellar 2012. He’s lost major finals only the best player there currently is, who is a generation younger than him (Even two years difference has historically meant a lot in tennis). But he has a different trajectory and enjoys playing tennis way more than Nadal. That’s what his fans like about him.
What are you talking about? How do you know Rafa is not enjoying playing tennis?
I remember back during 2009/2010 some of Fed’s fans were calling for Fed to retire too. And, in 2013 Fed had his worst year since dont know when and his fans reiterated the same thing again.
Rafa is not done yet and he’s still enjoying playing tennis, if not he would have quitted by now.
Wha? The only people asking Fed to retire were those under the impression that a man with kids and entering his 30s can’t play tennis.
Nadal-well, I’ve never seen him happy playing tennis. He might like competing. But I’ve never seen him enjoy tennis for the sake of tennis. That’s why there is little variation in his game-little experimentation and little willingness to take risks.
What are you talking about? Rafa has always enjoy playing tennis if not why do you think he can endure the pain and is still out there playing? Its not only your Fed who’s enjoying tennis you know?
You’re not Rafa’s fan so please dont jump into conclusions like this. You dont know him enough to pass a comment like this!
Nah, back during early 2009 when Fed was shanking all over the places, some of his fans were calling for him to quit. Its not only during 2013 but earlier in 2009 and also 2010.
Fed had back problems in 2009 that no one knew about then. That’s why the “thank God the Hard Court season is over.”
Nadal’s problem is different. If his A game is not clicking he has nothing to go to. No options. So when he’s confident he’ll do wonders otherwise its a disaster. He oscillates between two extremes even when healthy because he’s rarely creative. I don’t think it’s his fault. His somewhat demanding relationship with Toni probably had something to do with it.
Fedfan (AT 1:42 PM),
—Fed had back problems in 2009 that no one knew about then.—
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I’m not a Fed fan, but I knew about this.
Read the comment posted by Augustina08, 10/25/10 1:30 PM:
http://www.tennistalk.com/en/news/20101023/Del_Potro_pulls_the_plug_on_2010
Dont think Rafa needs to play his A game always to win. Where were you when Rafa was sweeping up every title on clay? He certainly didnt need to play his A game all the time to win back then.
I see Fed losing to Seppi in R3 of AO last year, or R4 to Gulbis at FO2004 for examples, certainly didnt see any of his creativity in those matches when he was losing. He certainly needed his A game to win but he had nothing to fall back to and so he lost. Similar egs: lost to Tsonga and Berdych at Wimbledon in consecutive years, etc.
Okay I should have qualified that. He probably does enjoy playing on clay as he’s a natural on it.
As for Roger, yes his major losses increased post 2012 but not like this. 2013 was an anomaly and his only odd loss was AO. All this at his age. And he’s still experimenting at 34. For me the Berdych loss was clearly due to his thigh. And in any case he immediately hired Annacone post that. The Tsonga loss was closely contested from start to finish and at a very high level of grass court tennis and the better player on the day won.
Also A game is not in terms of level. It is in terms of his usual tendency to play defensively. It is always more difficult to play consistent, long term defense than offense because both physically and mentally it takes more out of you. Even on slow courts.
I’m not critical of Nadal right now. I just think he’s not playing for himself ergo not enjoying the game.
No, his major losses increased post 2007.
#Shhh…FederazziRevisionismAtWork
#CheckYourFacts
I am talking about early, inexplicable losses. Unless you’re saying his loss to Nadal is inexplicable. :p
You’re strange. Rafa is a counterpuncher so obviously he’s playing more defensively than offensively.
You talked about him losing a close match to Tsonga but wasnt Rafa losing a close match to Verdasco now or to Fognini at the USO? Its not like Rafa was losing meekly now to Verdasco! Both Fognini and Verdasco were playing the match of their lives to beat Rafa. When it comes to Fed your bias knows no bound.
So what about Fed smacking volley winners? Others including Rafa can also do it! Fed still didnt win anything major that’s the point and you’re the one not knowing it, not surprising to me!
“Both Fognini and Verdasco were playing the match of their lives to beat Rafa”
Rafa allowed it in both cases by hitting short defensive balls unlike 2010-2013. He made them look so good.
Verdasco had almost 100 winners along with 100 unforced errors. 200 points on Verdasco’s racquet means that Rafa played passive uninspired tennis which has too often been the case over the last two years.
He has been unwilling to take meaningful steps to address root cause.
And what make you think Rafa is not playing for himself? Who are you to say that when you’re not even a fan to know about him?
You talked about Fed and Tsonga match being contested closely from start to finish. Nah, Fed was the one winning the first two sets but went on to lose in five sets; thats Fed not able to finish the job as his game deteriorated as the match went on, not unlike his USO2011 SF vs Novak. Its unlike Rafa vs Verdasco, when they each took turn to gain the upperhand.
Sanju (AT 11:58 AM)
—We fans need to show maybe more faith.—
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As for me, I have replied to you a zillion times that I always hope Rafa to win and support him, no matter what.
Can you stop taking every comment being directed at you? No one is questioning your loyalty, so why are you hellbent on proving it again and again?
Sanju (AT 12:46 PM),
This blog is public. 🙂
Rafa has to stop being stubborn and accept what is wrong. Its just not practising hard that will change things. If he needs an extra voice, get it. Damn the family thing, your legacy is bigger and at stake. Maybe Toni should opt out himself if Rafa cant make the decision.
Rafas family has to support him totally here rather than telling him to retire if he wants. A champion cannot retire without a last hurrah.
Sanju (AT 12:05 PM),
—Rafas family has to support him totally here rather than telling him to retire if he wants.—
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Rafa’s family supports Rafa, there’s no doubt about that.
People say Darren Cahill..Cahill has been able to do nothing with Simona halep.
Sanju (AT 12:10 PM),
Yep, Halep lost today to WTA #133…
Sanju Jalep isn’t Rafa and a new coach takes time (see Boris Becker).
Surprising results this morning. Did not see that coming. Commies, Rafa fans. Wasn’t trying to spread false optimism – really thought Rafa would get the job done in 3. Picked Rafa to the Final in my bracket.
Simona out too.
am afraid i did see this one coming ratcliff. as i wrote yesterday i was very nervous about this match as i thought rafa would be extremely nervous given his performance in the last 2 slams and feel really under pressure. i wrote here that i still thought he would come through but that wasn’t really what i felt and in private i wrote @nny via email that i thought this was a very dangerous match and that there was a strong chance he would implode mentally and hand the match to nando.
I too felt very scared and definitely thought it will be dangerous though still thought he will pull it off at the end. Did not see the loss coming though.
am afraid i did sanju….!! ask nny!! rafa has to make changes and either ditch toni or add people. toni isn’t the right person to build up rafa’s confidence and i’ve been saying that for ages and ages now….
Sorry – I don’t consider myself an expert on Rafa and do not want 2016 to turn out like 2015 for him. Not sure what to say or if there’s a silver lining to this. Devastating result at the moment.
no silver lining ratcliff..unless he finally realises he has to get more help…devastating but all too predictable loss and there will be more if he doesn’t act IMO…
have to go out now….
hoping for a nole/stan final now….could be fab….
amy,
Yes again, you said exactly that to me. I was hoping that you were wrong. I remember how I went back and forth with my prediction, thinking that Rafa might lose one set to Nando. I was worried, too, but didn’t allow myself to think that he would lose.
ratcliff,
Thanks for your kind words.
Expected.
Why don’t you predict right now what Rafa will do next 3 slams rather than coming post his bad results and rubbing salt ?
If you have the guts to man it up, predict right now.
So where will Rafa be going after today? Will he go to Rio directly or goes back home?
Luckystar (AT 12:34 PM),
In an interview with IB3 on Dec.26, Rafa said that he wouldn’t go back to Mallorca before April to avoid the cold and humidity of the Mallorcan winter, which are not good for his knees. Rafa will travel to South America from Australia.
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Reportedly, he can receive a wildcard entry into the Buenos Aires tournament (ATP-250), if he decides to play there.
Ok thanks for the info.
Now that I come to think of it, following all the disappointments and tough losses endured by Rafa, and us his fans having to live with it, I had this idea about betting against Rafa…I even said to a friend of mine last night jokingly: Put your money on Rafa losing his match and you may win tons of money…I could never do that, I can’t even predict Rafa’s loss but boy I would certainly feel less upset and down with money in my pocket… ? this is just an attempt for some rather stupid humor to try to entertain myself when I feel truly and utterly depressed…
Have actually done something similar before, natashao. It’s a survival instinct in some of us?
Wow. No more Rafa. Shocking loss.
I don’t understand why everyone’s making Toni the scapegoat for all this.
How are you guys defining who’s a good coach and who’s not??
Simply basing it off the player’s result?
If for some reason, Novak decided to hire me, would that make me a top tier coach?
Don’t see how anyone can truly have an insight on this, unless they are in Nadal’s team watching them train / talk strategy on a daily basis.
When you see Toni yelling instructions from the stands all the time you know it’s a problem.
Wasn’t a problem when he was winning 14 GS was there?
Even when he was winning those he wasn’t doing much differently. He was at his physical peak then, therefore playing his brand tennis was good to go. Now his footspeed has reduced and his lack of options are showing.
So what have Fed won these days, option or no option? When one declines physically, one cant win anymore, at least not as frequently.
You’re talking without substance here, as if Fed has many options that enable him to win now! I still see him being slamless for three years, playing with options or not!
Fed is 34. And is smacking volley winners off serves. No he’s not winning. But he’s pushing himself to do well even today. Not surprising that you probably don’t realise why it’s phenomenal.
He hasn’t declined physically.
He’s declined mentally.
As fedfan says, Fed is reaching slam finals. Stan is older than Rafa and reaching/winning slam finals.
Verdasco is 32.
This is not about age.
How do you know that Rafa IS not going to push himself to do well going forward?? If he hadnt, he wont rise in the rankings from no.10 to no.5 by end of last year.
Its strange that you’re jumping into conclusion like this. If Rafa is not willing to make changes to improve then how come he could hit that big serve to win him his first USO? How come he could come back from injuries time and again and regained the upperhand in the rankings and turned the table against Novak each time?
Its not only Fed who’s thinking of improving, Rafa is also doing the same, its just that he needs time to get used to a new racket and implementing the changes to his game.
Fedfan (AT 1:47 PM)
—When you see Toni yelling instructions from the stands…—
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You imagine.
When you see Toni yelling instructions from the stands all the time you know it’s a problem.
correction to AT 2:21 PM,
The last sentence is double posting of Fedan’s phrase.
Nole wouldn’t be where he is today if he hired you for coach no offence lol.
He got there first with vajda and then recognized he needed Becker after he was stagnating post 2011.
He is always looking.at every avenue to improve and it’s paying huge dividends. He will soon pass Rafa as goat by this year or next.
Evolve or perish.
Lol, let me ask to this. Would Novak achieve those GS without Becker?
Good or bad, I have no opinions toward any of the coaches, because I think it’s unfair do to so. Especially when none of us have a perspective within the players’team.
And @fedfan, that’s just your own. interpretation of what a coach should do while watching a match. It has nothing to do with their actual ability
No I don’t think so. After 2011 and before Boris, Nole was losing slam finals he could have won. In my opinion.
Nats it would be like a type of insurance.
I’ve thought the same. Like a financial anti jinx.
Without a change to his team, it will only get worse.
This is not about the game passing him by as Ricky said.
This is about him not playing his game.
Verdascos game has dropped.
Rafa dumping short second serve returns into the net repeatedly does not equate to the game passing him by. That’s ridiculous.
Also Rafa became the greatest ever with his storied 2013 comeback punctuated with his 13th and 14th slam win. Makes no difference if he retired after 2014 French open. You can’t take his achievements away from him.
He is the best for now.
For me, I will always be his fan.
Tennis continues and there will be great tennis over the next two weeks for all tennis fans to enjoy including most Rafans.
Vamos Rafa no matter what.
Hawkeye, Ive come to accept it that Rafa can never be like that aggressive youngster (of 2004) anymore as he had since changed to playing a counterpunching game across all surfaces. Those 2013 USO series matches were the exceptions not the norm. In all likelihood he will continue with his counterpunching game on the HC surfaces and definitely on clay. He will continue to run into problems when facing a big hitter esp when the big hitter is on fire.
I only wish for him to do well on clay at least, to win his 10th FO before he quits the game; oh wins a few more clay Masters too.
I think Rafa was more the aggressor in 2013 than he was the counter puncher.
We can argue all day whether it is physical or mental.
But for me, Rafa dumping slow second serve returns into the net repeatedly has nothing to do with physical decline, recovery, the game passing him by and is solely mental anxiety.
I think its both mental and physical. Rafa looks a bit slow out there; in the past he could run to cover his FH when its under attack, now he reached the ball late when opponents attacked his FH corner.
I hope its him getting used to new racket or new strings and so a bit hesitant. I do feel he’s making wrong decisions on the tennis court. Its obvious Verdasco was anticipating his CC topspin FH and was comfortable returning it as the bounce was just right for him. Rafa should hit a penetrating flatter CC FH making use of the full diagonal length of the court to make it difficult for Verdasco to return the shot, but with topspin when hitting DTL so that his shots just dipped and touched the baseline. He instead did the reverse, hitting topspin CCFH but hit a flat DTL one that he overhit over the baseline.
He talked about defense and offence in his presser, clearly he’s indecisive or a bit confused as to whether he should go for offensive shots or stayed back and played defence. Its very much a WIP for him, the AO is a bit too soon for him when he’s not ready or comfortable yet with the new changes to his game.
I said before, that Rafa is not one who fights fire with fire, so I do feel he has to take the initiative to start aggressively from the get go when he knows he’s facing an aggressive player and gain the upperhand right away. If he’s more aggressive vs Verdasco, Verdasco would be forced to defend more and some of his winners would become UEs.
FedoleFan is just bummed out about Rafa being Fed’s Daddy. Like most extreme Fed fans.
Nothing new lol.
Good thing I didn’t pick Rafa to go super far. Had him in the quarters though.
My bracket is pulverized. Done. BennyG
Only one who can save it is Nole.
My bracket is done, too. I picked Rafa to go to the final. Gee whiz, does that make me a Novak fan? I picked him to beat both Stan and Murray.
So who didn’t have faith in Rafa! But I have been proved wrong now. So be it. Life goes on and so does tennis.