Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand and Steen Kirby of Tennis Atlantic preview and pick the four best men’s singles matches on Tuesday at the Australian Open. Rafael Nadal and Lleyton Hewitt are the headliners.
(5) Rafael Nadal vs. Fernando Verdasco
Ricky: 2009 ain’t walkin’ through that door. Nadal is no longer the player he was when he beat Verdasco in one of the best matches ever played, a five-set thriller in the ’09 Australian Open semifinals. Unfortunately for Verdasco, he is even further from his prime at this point in time. Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 14-2, and Verdasco’s two wins can be easily explained. One came on a joke of a surface (blue clay, Madrid 2012) and the other came when Nadal was a shadow of his real self early in 2015 (Miami). The world No. 5 is much-improved now–at least against anyone except Novak Djokovic. This should be beatdown city. Nadal 6-3, 6-3, 6-3.
Steen: This Australian Open rematch is almost certain to come nowhere close to their 2009 semifinal epic. Verdasco beat Nadal in Miami last year and that should give him some belief, but they have been trending in opposite directions since then. With Nadal looking motivated to boost his ranking this year, I doubt he’ll want to dance much with a troublesome countryman. Look for Rafa to roll. Nadal 6-4, 7-6, 6-3.
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(WC) James Duckworth vs. (WC) Lleyton Hewitt
Ricky: Something is wrong if this one does not result in a five-set marathon. It is, of course, Hewitt’s last hurrah. And nothing screams “five-set marathon” quite like Hewitt vs. Duckworth at the Australian Open. Combined, five of their last eight matches at this event have gone to five sets. Given the fact that Hewitt is probably focused on more on his upcoming Davis Cup duties and general life after tennis than on his actual game, there are not a whole lot of players in this draw whom he would beat. But Duckworth may be one of them. Don’t be surprised if Hewitt wins an epic before David Ferrer sends him on his way. Hewitt 6-3, 2-6, 4-6, 6-4, 11-9.
Joey: At his age, Hewitt could be blitzed by the heavy pre-Australian Open farewell schedule (Hopman Cup, Sydney, Adelaide). This may well turn into his swan-song if Duckworth simply plays a consistent match and stays focused on winning amidst all the fanfare surrounding this one. But given the circumstances, it’s more likely Hewitt will put up a great fight and Duckworth will accede to his countryman under the lights. It would be far more fitting for Hewitt to be sent off by Ferrer, and thus I have him winning this one–somehow…regardless of form, record, or anything else. The former world No. 1 truly has nothing to lose now. Hewitt 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-5.
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Gilles Muller vs. (20) Fabio Fognini
Ricky: Fognini did not win a single hard-court match in 2015 until the U.S. Open. He has already won two this season (reached the Auckland quarterfinals before losing to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga). The Italian is obviously off to a much better start this season, but his third hard-court victory may not come Down Under. This is a bad first-round draw against Muller, who advanced to the Sydney semifinals last week. The 32-year-old Luxembourgian also made a run to the Aussie fourth round last season. In what should be a competitive contest, Muller will have the mental edge. Muller 6-3, 6-7, 6-1, 7-5.
Steen: Both veterans have started this year with winning records (4-2 for Muller and 2-1 for Fognini). Fognini’s performance at the U.S. Open last year demonstrates that when focused, he can be a top 20 hard-court player. Muller is more consistent as a cracking serve-and-volleyer, though, and the Sydney semifinalist reached the fourth round of the 2015 Australian Open. This one should be close, but Muller’s consistency will help him get the upset. Muller 5-7, 7-5, 7-6, 4-6, 6-4.
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(25) Jack Sock vs. (Q) Taylor Fritz
Ricky: Is it more than a coincidence that Sock withdrew from the Auckland final due to illness right after his favorite restaurant–Chipotle–announced it is shutting down for one day in February to hold a food-safety meeting? Hopefully not. If Sock is healthy (and he should be with two full days of rest), this all-American showdown is going to be straightforward. Fritz’s rise in the last half-year has been meteoric, but he is nowhere near ready from primetime. Although the 18-year-old came back from 4-0 down in the final set of the final round of qualifying against Mischa Zverev to win six games in a row, that had a lot more to do with Zverev than with Fritz. Sock 6-1, 7-5, 6-3.
Steen: This match would be easier to predict and more interesting if it wasn’t somewhat likely to end in a retirement. Sock has been playing well to start the season, he’s more experienced, and currently at a level well above Fritz. But the Auckland finalist had to retire this past Saturday due to the flu and looked miserable. Fritz is exhausted, as well, but making his first slam main draw as a qualifier should boost his spirits. He was lucky to qualify, and he may get lucky again if Sock is still sick. But Sock should grab a win if healthy. Sock 6-4, 6-3, 6-2.
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Monfils has good chance at reaching the quarters now. I think he and Chardy are the only seeds left.
In Rafa’s section I mean.
Rafa’s section of the draw is wide open now. A real opportunity for someone.
Monfils
Yes, I can see Monfils capitalizing on this opportunity. I would like to see him do it.
One thing I know is that Rafa won’t give up. I’m still not counting him out of a tenth FO title this season.
he’s miles away from that level benny. you are forgetting that the slams are now becoming more of a problem for him than the other tournaments. three terrible losses in a row. he’ll be under huge pressure when he returns to the clay courts…
Yeah that’s true.
But if he wins a masters on clay or two he could gain the confidence again. He needs to take down Nole during the clay court season heading into the French. He’s not getting a win on hard court anytime soon against Novak that’s for sure.
yes that is right benny. but he will need to do that to stand a chance of rebuilding his confidence and winning RG. it is very worrying that these losses are coming in the early rounds of slams. in a sense it’s not surpising because even peak rafa got nervous in the opening rounds of slams so vulnerable rafa was really going to struggle and then the 2 previous slam exits were really going to be weighing on him. that’s what i was trying to say the other day. (even before i came to this site to see the result i was sure in my gut he’d lost..i could just feel it).
he needs a lot of luck somewhere along the line..
amy,
You know I actually forgot about the early round loss to Brown at Wimbledon. So I didn’t realize that it’s been three slams in a row. That’s when you have to be concerned. Early exits in slams is a big deal. But as you said, it makes sense that a vulnerable Rafa lacking in confidence would have an even tougher time in the early rounds. It’s true that Rafa always started slowly in slams and had his troubles. Now it’s even worse.
I can’t believe it! I just turned on ESPN2 and they are replaying Rafa’s match! I turned it off immediately. There is no way that I am going to put myself through that again. It was bad enough to watch it live.
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Albert Einstein.
too true hawks….too true..all this is so expletive deleted predictable..
Yes, after watching this debacle, I must say that Einstein knew what he was talking about!
I agree with augusta,
# No Rafa no tennis
I put my TV on radio on mute during the sport report because it’s to painful to even to hear the words: “Rafael Nadal was defeated………..”
“I know I did everything that I can to be ready for it. Was not my day. Let’s keep going. That’s the only thing.
No, no, there is no more things to do than keep practicing hard, keep practicing the same way that I was doing the last four, five months.
Today I was not ready to compete the way that I was practicing, so not happy with that. That’s it. I hope the next time I can compete better than what I did today, because I was playing good.”
Practice won’t fix this.
“But the real thing is my mission is make them play with difficult positions. So if they want to go for lot of winners with very difficult positions, the chance of having success is not very high. If I let them hit from good positions and they obviously wants to go for winners, then the chances for success are much higher.
So that’s the mistake for me today. Last year was different story, no? Don’t want to compare last year, because last year was a different issues.
But this year, the real thing is I was not enough aggressive with my forehand during the whole match. I didn’t feel it. I tried. I fighted. I was ready to do it, and I didn’t. So I am sad for that.”
This is what I’ve said.
His forehand is not near as aggressive as it used to be and Rafa is slower both primarily due to heavy legs which is a symptom of anxiety.
Last night was the first time in weeks I have been able to watch tennis as I’ve only just packed off the last house guests from the Christmas/New Year holiday period although I’ve been following all your discussions on Tenngrand.
I’m still reeling from the shock – not to mention the horror – of watching the Verdasco Fiasco. Right up to the bitter end I was so sure Rafa would turn things round particularly after Nando looked like he was cramping up. But Rafa looked like the proverbial rabbit caught in headlights of a car.. I switched off after they shook hands. I didn’t want to see his face or watch him leave the court.
To add to the misery people have been ringing up all day to ask how I’m feeling. ugh.
I refuse to give up on Rafa but I’m not sure I can take much more of watching him go down the pan in this way.
Last night was the first time in weeks I have been able to watch tennis as I’ve only just packed off the last house guests from the Christmas/New Year holiday period although I’ve been following all your discussions on Tenngrand.
I’m still reeling from the shock – not to mention the horror – of watching the Verdasco Fiasco. Right up to the bitter end I was so sure Rafa would turn things round particularly after Nando looked like he was cramping up. But Rafa looked like the proverbial rabbit caught in headlights of a car.. I switched off after they shook hands. I didn’t want to see his face or watch him leave the court.
To add to the misery people have been ringing up all day to ask how I’m feeling. ugh.
I refuse to give up on Rafa but I’m not sure I can take much more of watching him go down the pan in this way.
The big question is Whether Novak Djokovic is going to surpass Nadal 14 GS. And bigger question is that who will win GS first Roger Federer or Nadal? Too bad Nadal is declined and Federer is old. What an incredibly weak era since last two years that has given Novak massive advantage.
Novak will get more than 14. The question is if can Nadal win another French.
Haha weak era lol good one
Benny,
Yes, I do find that quite amusing! The old “weak era” argument! Now Stan is in the top four with two slams, Murray is still very much in contention and so is Fed. Not to mention guys like Nishi, Cilic, Tsonga, Berdy, Ferrer, Dimitrov and the other young guns.
I guess some choose to try to rationalize things in their own way.
It’s only weak era when no other player other than Nole is able to make slam finals for 3+ years.
Far from that yet.
^This!
Er…who other than Novak made slam finals for 3+ or even four to five years? Only Rafa did from 2011 to 2014. Murray did in 2011-2013 and then 2015. If both Rafa and Murray fail to make finals this year, then perhaps we are into the weak era already.
I exclude Fed the old man here. Fed making finals further strengthen the weak era argument.
PS Fed made finals in 2011 FO, 2012 Wimbledon, 2014 Wimbledon and 2015 Wim and USO.
Weak Era is 3 or more years with no more than one player consistently making slam finals (min. 30% of slam finals let’s say).
So 2013-15 we have:
Nole 9 of 12
Rafa 4
2012-14:
Nole 8 of 12
Rafa 6
Murray 4
Compare that to 2004-06:
Fed 9 of 12
2003-05:
Fed 6 of 12
2002-04:
Fed 4 of 12
2001-03:
No one
2000-02:
Sampras 4 of 12
1999-2001:
Agassi 5 of 12
Sampras 4
So definite weak era from 2000-06
Now what about 2014-16?
To date:
Nole 6
Fed 3
Rafa 2
Stan 2
So possible end of this year a new weak era could be born unless Fed makes one final or Rafa or Stan make two finals but we are not there yet.
Remember, this trend occurred over seven years from 2000-06!!!
The greatest weak era of all time!!!
#GWEOAT
🙂
Nole is a potential GOAT in waiting and Federer beat him three times in 2015, arguably one of the best if not the best single year by any player in tennis history.
Federer is still a great player.
#FedCounts
I don’t know how it will sound but i feel its better for Rafa and Fed to lose early than to lose against Nole Andy or wawa.. The loss was so painful and i can’t believe only 2 years ago in 2014 he was palying amazing tennis when he won against red hot Dimi, Nishi in semis against Fed and he was certain to take the trophy hime but due to bad back.. Phew.. Then he won FO agaisnt Nole so he was palying incredible tennis what Happened suddenly which has make him nervous and less aggressor, i still feel if he start to paly full aggressive he can beat Nole, i have watched us open 2013 final many times why cant he play like this the aggressive rafa..
maybe on clay
MAYBE
Ricky doesn’t get it.
Not about the surface.
Nah, Rafa at 2010 or 2013 is good enough for Novak on any surface, imo. Just watch his matches of 2010 and 2013 again, on clay and on HCs. Rafa was so quick to cover both wings and so aggressive, moving up the court as much as possible to finish points asap. He also had a good serve in those years.
A Rafa playing a notch down from 2010 was still pushing Novak to the limit at AO2012.
Exactly Lucky. Nole wouldn’t necessarily have today’s confidence with that Rafa staring down at him.
Tennis takes two to A Tango, Lad.
Not about Nole at all. Rafa’s problems are much bigger than that.
Nole’s level is not significantly higher than 2013 when Rafa beat him at the French and US Open or 2014 when Rafa beat him at the French Open.
Rafa’s level has severely dropped.
So I think he’d continue to beat Nole in slams more often than not but it’s a moot point as there is no evidence to suggest that he’s willing to make the changes needed to get that level back.
Forget Nole until he can reach semis in slams which he is unable to do against the rest of the field.
hawkeye,
I don’t know that I agree that Novak’s level is not significantly higher than in 2013. I think he’s improved his serve quite a bit. In that 2013 USO it was Novak’s serve that let him down and also some mental lapses. Also, his DTL backhand wasn’t working well. There were definitely issues in his game and Rafa playing aggressive tennis and being mentally strong, playing at his best was able to take advantage.
The thing that I have noticed about Novak, is his willingness to address issues that may crop up in his game. That’s what it’s all about. He came back stronger in 2014. It wasn’t enough to take out Rafa at RG. Rafa not even at his best could not be taken out at RG prior to 2015.
In 2015 we saw that Novak wasn’t double faulting in crucial moments of matches. He was mentally stronger. He always had a great second serve, but now he’s hitting even more aces. He’s got all his groundstrokes firing. The guy just doesn’t quit.
There was a time when Rafa would work with Uncle Toni on aspects of his game. I remember how good he looked when he came out in the 2009 AO. He was coming to the net more and volleying and also his CC backhand was absolutely brilliant. He made some changes so that he could compete at HC slams and win. That’s what he did in 2009. Rafa has been willing to work on his game, so I simply cannot understand why now he is content to just keep practicing. It’s clearly not translating to his match play.
I do agree with you that Rafa’s level has severely dropped.
Novak has improved his volleying and his game at the net. To me that’s the two areas he improved over his 2011 self. His serve was already great in 2013 (watch his match vs Delpo at Wimbledon, he was also serving 20+aces), its just that right now he’s so confident that he rarely DF.
I dont think its fair to say that Rafa is not working to improve his game. I thought we said earlier on he’s working to improve his BHDTL and his ROS and his serves? He was doing everything right when he played against Stan and Murray at WTF and Raonic at Abu Dhabi. To me, he’s still a WIP, trying to be aggressive but sometimes falling back into bad habit of reverting back to defensive play once he met with an aggressive opponent – Ferrer at WTF, Kuznetsov and Novak at Doha.
He said it himself, he made the mistake of not being aggressive in the first set and I agree with him. I said earlier that its not Rafa’s style to fight fire with fire, so its important for him to come out all guns blazing at the get go to gain the upperhand and never allow his opponent back into the game, if he knows that his opponent is a big hitting player. Rafa made the mistake of starting slow, not expecting Verdasco to be on fire.
Going forward, I’m positive that Rafa will get there, like his 2013 aggressive self, when he’s given more time to get used to new racket/string and to work and implement those changes or improvements into his matches, starting with clay at Rio and maybe BA.
I’ve watched some of his 2010 matches on youtube and was reminded of how great Rafa was at that time, how quick and how aggressive he was back then. Its no wonder he won three slams that year. Not to mention his clean sweep of all clay titles on European soil.
Its no wonder Toni was saying Rafa is trying to find that 2010, 2013 game and to me that’s sufficent to deal with anyone.
Djoker is way better now mentally and physically. Rafa’s level has dropped too of course.
hawkeye, I never thought I would agree with you but you are spot on. It’s Rafa’s level that’s gone down. He needs to get his mojo back otherwise there is no point in losing embarrassing matches like he is doing now.
In Abu Dhabi, Rafa lit the place up with his game. Before his first match, everyone was in a lull and people seeing a live tennis match for the first time where underwhelmed watching Anderson vs Raonic etc. When Rafa took to the court playing his usual lightning style everyone thought, now this is worth coming for. So why a few weeks later, he simply couldn’t do that against Verdasco is hard to fathom.
Nerve. Remember Rafa lost early in the past two slams, naturally he would be nervous in his first match. Moreover, it’s Verdasco and everyone kept reminding him of their 2009 SF, all the more made him nervous.
Verdasco came out all guns blazing didn’t help either. Had Rafa won the first set, he would have won the match. Verdasco went for broke in set 4&5 and didn’t miss much in those two sets.
Rafa’s problem was not being aggressive when needed to, just like his matches vs Ferrer, Kuznetsov and Novak.
Rafa definitely suffered from nerves but he should not succumb to the media noises about their match in 2009. He has beaten Verdasco many times since so he should have gone on court believing in himself.
Verdasco won their latest encounter at Miami last year, Rafa would be nervous. Rafa is such a guy, that he lacks confidence and when playing against someone who has beaten him before, he tends to remember those losses and so gets nervous. The same goes when he meets Fognini.
Not hard to fathom for me.
Lucky is right.
Practise and exhos are not high stakes.
I do not agree that it’s better for Rafa to lose early to the likes of Nando. Or Fog or Brown for that matter! At least if he gets to the semis or finals and loses to another top player, that is something that can be expected. But this? No way! Losses like this will destroy what is left of Rafa’s confidence. This is beyond humiliating. Also, the quality of this match was nowhere near the level of their 2009 semifinal.
It is hard to believe that only two years ago Rafa was in the final going for the double career slam.
I think we can all agree that out of the Big 4, Rafa’s game takes the most toll on the body. Maybe, just maybe his body is declining.
That’s because he’s playing most clay court matches among the big 4, not help by his foot issue. In addition, he doesnt have a great serve to win him cheap points, the way Fed and Novak could.
Repeatedly hitting soft verdasco second serve returns into the net is not physical decline. It’s mental decline.
Video of Rafa’s presser after his loss to Verdasco
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exNssqGzFZ4
I have NEVER seen Rafa look this distressed after a loss. He actually had tears in his eyes. So sad to watch him like this. Hope he sees the light at the end of the tunnel soon.
Vamos Rafa!
He had himself to blame. He should know by now nobody wants to give him time to get into his groove so it pays to come out all guns blazing esp vs a player like Verdasco.
Poor play by him, no excuse for an experienced player like him. I don’t feel sorry for him because he refuses to learn his lessons. This will teach him a lesson – take things into his own hands, don’t depend on others to make errors.
Agree don’t feel sorry for him at all. He should feel sorry for us on the other hand for putting us through this for 18 months now.
Read Feds presser today. Guess what nobody even asked him about Rafas loss which they usually do. Guess no one considers it a surprise anymore.
@ sanju,
In the Balkans, his loss was presented as “sensation, breaking news and a lot of speculations about end of career”…so I guess a diverse media approach is possible…
What got me upset is the crowd being behind Verdasco…in the fifth set they were just thrilled to see his aggressive game and he won their support for his gutsy performance…I felt for Rafa…
This crowd behaved badly with him in AO 2014 too. Did they not boo him? So nothing new here. I think only Wimbledon and USO has hardcore Rafa supporters.
French has always been a question and Australia too from past 3 years.
Sanju (AT 12:01 PM)
Didn’t you remember the reason at the 2014 AO ??
nats, that’s because a large and vocal component of the crowd are fedfans that take pleasure in Rafa losing because of his threat to Fed’s legacy.
End of career is not surprising for media to infer. It is logical conclusion. What I meant is shock value of a loss.
Well Rafa was asked the question in 2015 about his retirement and he said he would wait and see how his 2016 turns out.
I won’t be surprised that if he’s not winning anything this year, he may quit. If he always has doubts and worries about his body and his game, and gets nervous all the time, how’s he going to enjoy the competition out there? Suffering embarrassing losses to low ranked players would make it even harder to bear, not only for him but for his fans too.
Rafa and Toni seem to have all the bad timings in launching their projects – Rafa launched his book ‘Rafa’ after his stellar 2010 only to suffer 7 straight losses at the hands of Novak and lost his no.1 ranking. Toni launched a book on Tennis coaching last year I think and then his charge had his worst season, not winning a slam or a masters for the first time in ten years, and mentally ‘collapsed’ during his matches.
Rafa’s tennis academy will be ready this year and he has to play so poorly (even at the slams), a serious drop in ranking and his level of play, that he is asked about his retirement from prof tennis. What’s with all the bad timings?
Luckystar (12:49 PM)
—Rafa and Toni seem to have all the bad timings in launching their projects…—
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Rafa and Toni are doing something ALL the time.
Sanju (AT 10:47 AM),
—Agree don’t feel sorry for him at all.—
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To each its own.
Verdasco played very bad first set. Rafa just played worse.
So true…Rafa’s bad game made Verdasco look great…Verdasco would have been destroyed by any player in the top 20 playing like that…
Definitely, that’s why Verdasco’s ranking is outside Top 40.
I couldn’t believe how old Fernando looked but any player in Top 100 could look good with all of those short balls teed up by Rafa.
Again, here is Rafa’s presser after losing to Sod at FO. Check the one minute mark. Rafa is bang on about what made Sod look so good. Exact same analysis is true for Versdasco loss almost seven years later…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caP8ymFrStM
@ nadline,
I never thought I would cry over Rafa’s loss but I admit I did yesterday, and not right after the match, but later when the state of shock was replaced with grief.
And then watching his press conference broke my heart…seeing tears in his eyes and the enormous sadness on his face was just too much for me.
My own training last night got me going. I did not have any sleep and was devastated, but once I started my working routine I managed to get rid of the negative feelings.
I hope Rafa’s training, his hard work and his goals will help him overcome this terrible loss. It’s difficult and he may need some therapy to get back his belief in success…
I am so sad to see him suffering like this…it hurts…
natashao (AT 11:14 AM),
—I never thought I would cry over Rafa’s loss but I admit I did yesterday—
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It means that you have become a Rafan! 🙂
@ augusta08,
I watch many sports…and I am a fan of numerous greats in various sports but I have never experienced this type of devotion and involvement in someone’s career as I do for Rafa…though I would prefer to be less affected there is no way…
I wish I could just be angry at Rafa but I can’t…Rafa is such a wonderful human being and hard working individual…he shows so much respect for his opponents…he deserves better than this…it makes me so sad…hope he gets back on track…soon…
natashao (12:22 PM),
—I wish I could just be angry at Rafa but I can’t…Rafa is such a wonderful human being…—
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I remember that you have been angry at him and I’m glad you can’t be now. 🙂
augusta 12:32PM,
It was so much easier that way, trust me… ?
I’d felt this way long time ago when Rafa lost and esp at FO2009. My days were affected by Rafa’s losses.
I’ve learned to accept his losses and be less affected by them, after he won his FO2014. Why FO2014? Because he finally had gotten his five in a row at the FO, and he’s in the exclusive league of only three of them – Fed, Borg and Rafa – who had won at a slam five years in a row.
The loss at FO2009 hurt the most, for Rafa had only to win that year to join that exclusive club and then he failed. I was very upset by that loss, for, how many five years a player could have? I’ve waited five years since and many things happened in those five years, like the rise of Novak for example, and finally, Rafa won his five in a row at the FO in 2014 beating none other than Novak. Who would have thought that after ten years, Rafa would have won the FO for the ninth time?
My wish now is for Rafa to stay healthy and win some big titles like the slams and the WTF, get some wins over Novak and ends his career on a high note.
Rafa really needs to play aggressive tennis, the way he did in 2010 and 2013, if not he will be overpowered by big hitters often. Everyone tries to hit as hard as possible these days, like it or not, Rafa has to change something in his game to deal with these big hitters.
Luckystar (AT 1:14 PM)
—My wish now is for Rafa to stay healthy…—
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Thankfully, Rafa hasn’t suffered (serious) injuries since 2014. He has only had a niggling pain in his ankle(s) & shoulder and cramps caused by dehydration.
He is injured.
Exactly Lucky, Verdasco was no where near the level he played in 2009 SF against Rafa.
He lost at AO2014 and he cried and I felt for him, for he got injured. The same thing happened during AO2011 when he got injured.
However, this loss he had himself to blame – no injury, well prepared, yet played so poorly when he had all his chances and was leading.
I thought he said he had overcome his nerve yet when tested in a slam match, he failed again. If he continues to get nervous, no matter how hard he practices it’s still useless. What has his coach done to help him overcome this problem? After a year has passed, they’re back to square one.
If he always feel nervous, then why not go for broke and see what happens; there’s no harm because he would lose anyway due to nerve so why not go all out and shorten the match, win or lose? Why drag on and waste all the energy when a loss is to be expected because of nerve? Rafa simply can’t think logically.
@ lucky,
I said basically the same thing about this match…it seems Rafa suddenly loses his brilliant tennis brain…losing to Verdasco makes me extremely mad at Rafa, but seeing him suffer makes me so sad…i guess bad things happen to good people all the time…I just hope he does not end his career like this…he must believe in future success…
I am not blaming Toni but I am with the rest of you that Rafa needs additional help…this is just running in circle with no result except for more scars on his already fragile confidence tissue…
Viseo of Rafa’s presser after losing to Sod at FO. Check the one minute mark. Rafa is bang on about what made Sod look so good. Exact same analysis is true for Versdasco loss.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caP8ymFrStM
Rafa looked much worse after losing to Stan at AO finals.
Just that Rafa has shown us every damn low in past 15 months that I think anything from here is up. It cant get worse. 1st round, 2nd round, 3rd round exit in slams..RG loss..no Clay masters..just small 250/500 wins..can it get worse? Guess anything now on is gravy and he can only surprise us positively now on.
BTW is he still in Australia or gone home? I doubt he will go to Rio so soon 2 weeks in advance.
Sanju (AT 12:04 PM)
I answered this question on JANUARY 19, 2016 AT 12:46 PM.
You said he planned to go to Rio..but what will he go there and do 3 weeks before the tourney?
Sanju (12:48 PM)
—You said he planned to go to Rio…—
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Nope, I didn’t! Read my post again.
He is going to practice (somewhere) in South America.
A balanced article on Rafas defeat
http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/talkingturkey/another-setback-rafa-nadal-must-figure-out-a-way-to-counter-crazy-tennis/
Its a fact. All the 3 opponents that have beaten Rafa won by going for broke..playing low percentage tennis and belting winners. BUT BUT BUT Rafa fed them short balls to do that in the first place.
Sanju gets it.
The game hasn’t passed him by. He has dropped.
There is no question that Rafa’s level has dropped quite a bit. I would suggest anyone to go watch the 2013 RG semifinal and the 2013 USO final. That says it all.
I did finally cry after this loss. But it took some time. I think the shock had to wear off. I never expect to see Rafa lost to Nando. I was not prepared for it at all. I have been very sad since it happened and am struggling to shake it off.
I could not watch Rafa’s presser because the sad, pained look in his eyes was too hard to watch. To see a great champion come to this is beyond difficult.
Depressing articles on Rafa..warning
http://www.foxsports.com.au/tennis/world-view-open-defeat-shows-rafael-nadal-has-lost-his-aura-and-is-in-decline-as-grand-slam-force/news-story/75c32ccd913bf0946b07a0e273d0c309
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/20/sports/tennis/rafael-nadal-australian-open-first-round-loss.html?_r=0
sanju, you must be a sucker for punishment if you want to read depressing articles about Rafa. The only tennis sites I’ve been on since the loss are VB and this one.
Sanju, no thanks.
When writers and bloggers are that blind as to the cause of Rafa’s struggles, it shows their limited understanding of tennis and that mental strength at the very elete level of competition is more important than the physical.
That’s why I am not reading any of it. I don’t want to feel worse than I do now.
Rafa needs to be reminded he is Rafael Nadal. I think Cahill or Carlos would have been good add ons. Team Rafa surely needs to bring in additional help.
That! Rafa forgets who he is and what he has accomplished and how much he can still do!
Sanju (AT 12:52 PM),
—I think Cahill or Carlos would have been good add—
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The same Cahill who “has been able to do nothing with Simona halep” ? [Sanju JANUARY 19, 2016 AT 12:10 PM]
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“Halep lost today to WTA #133…” [augusta08 JANUARY 19, 2016 AT 12:23 PM]
Well Halep is no Rafa. Secondly Halep has not won a single slam..Rafa has won 14 and understands game more.
Maybe he can make more sense of Cahills calming influence.
Simona herself said Cahill puts no pressure on her at all..calms her down..maybe Rafa needs just that.
I read Simona is bothered by some injury…that’s the main reason she was not ready to compete…i think Cahill will help her career…it was a wise decision IMO…
After Nole won three slams in 2011, he only won one in 2012 and 2013 losing two semis and FOUR finals.
He hired Becker because of Becker’s mental strength and experience in last rounds in slams.
It took a year for it to pay off.
Change doesn’t happen overnight.
Everybody laughed and criticized Nole for hiring Becker and it took some time to gel and his advice to have impact, but no one is laughing now and the hire is considered genius.
I was so distraught that I slept all day yesterday and I mean all day. I still had jet lag as I only returned from Dubai on Thursday but I went to bed at 7 pm on Monday night and got up at midnight to be wide awake for Rafa’s match full of hopes that I would enjoy watching Rafa for the next 2 weeks and all the hope disappeared right before my eyes on day 2.
Rafa must have cried before the presser, you could see it in his face. I just hope the level of disappointment will spur him on not to give away matches he should win. He did not do himself justice in that match at all.
For all you know..he may bounce back thinking..Enough is enough..I wont have any more of this..I am proving them all wrong going forth
He cannot do this alone.
Exactly. Nobody can. He needs help more than ever…
As all players do especially at the top.
Toni is the most successful coach of all time.
However, Rafa is the only tennis great in the last 20 years not to make some changes in coaching which is the normal thing when a player’s needs change throughout his career.
I agree with this. My belief is that the blame is not only on the player. There is a team that works with him, headed by at least one coach, sometimes more. They also have a responsibility. Rafa should not have to shoulder all of this himself. There are times when players need help and there is no shame in getting it. If the other top players can make changes, add sports psychologists to their team, add coaches and change equipment and implement specific changes to their games, then there is no reason why Rafa should not do the same.
Footspeed is declined and i was thinking about the ridiculous running forehands by rafa which are totally vanished, its more physical, and due to that he is getting nervous losing matches from winning positions i-e Us open and now Aus Open, Clay will also not help much IMO untill he finds his physical powers once again..
I am also inclined to think that way, although it may as well be both (mental letdowns)…I am too of the opinion that Rafa must change something big in his game as he is no longer fast as he used to be which is the main cause of his wrong court positioning and short forehands with less power…what can he do to compensate for his decline in speed? well, must rely on his serve more (which is not the case and may never be) or go to the net more often…and he definitely must improve his ROS…agressive play is what he needs but he must be confident in order to execute it right and to think clear. This is where a new pair of eyes or advise come in and seem mandatory…that’s why I think Rafa needs another (in addition to Toni!) coach on his team…
In the Verdasco’s match I noticed Rafa hesitating to leave the baseline even when there was a clear opportunity for it…waiting for the opponent to make errors brings him nowhere…
It’s a chicken and egg situation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpKqMC2YfwI
The eeeeeg. Hahahahahaha (sorry Ricky, I will stop, my bad.)
no-one suddenly slows that much overnight. rafa’s movement was explosive at stuttgart last year and then lousy at wimby…there’s no explanation for these changes happening within 2 weeks except mental ones.
also people keep talking about the decrease in rafa’s court speed but the point is also decrease in his anticipation. rod laver has spoken before about how rafa has an uncanny oncourt anticipation of where his opponents’ shots are going…that’s just not working in the same way and again that’s mental.
amy gets it
definitely not sudden reduction of speed…all the injuries and setbacks had to take tool on his body…Novak and Fed are lucky to be healthy and not injury prone..
Stuttgart is not an indication of anything…Rafa played difficult three setters with Bagdatis and Tomic…Monfils plagued with injuries was just not good enough and Troicki choked on key points…
I do not exclude Rafa’s mental issues as the factor existing mainly due to lack of confidence…but lack of confidence comes from not trusting his own game not from the fear of opponents…that’s what Rafa has been saying all along…
oh dear i just wrote a post which has disappeared so will have to write it again
i agree that it’s more to do with lack of confidence in his own game than fear of his opponents. but the problem surely runs much deeper than just that.
if you remember that horrible match with brown..in the second set rafa started to play well then in the third he suddenly missed a very easy forehand and just literally fell apart. that’s an extraordinary change from a player who used to play point by point, putting the negative behind him, and was famous for being so mentally strong…
oh sorry forgot the speed part of it…
well he was literally rooted to the spot when he fell apart that match..could scarcely move…
I totally agree…but again I think it is mainly because he does not trust his own game and makes uncharacteristic errors because he seems to either overthink or not think properly on the court…
we can make attempt to find the reasons behind his current inexplicable losses and we all may be right to some extent…I just refuse to think that Rafa suffers any type of mental disorder because he evidently used to have this type of problems in early rounds all his life but managed to find the way to win mainly due to
1. mental strength and confidence in his own game
2. mental lapses and disbelief of his opponents
however, both of these reasons are no longer existant and that is where problems arise…
Well, we are talking semantics.
A mental disorder could be caused by him not trusting his game for example.
That is what an anxiety disorder is – nervousness or anxiety to the point that it severely impacts your performance of your normal activities. For Rafa, that’s tennis and his tennis performance is severely impacted.
There is no shame or weakness in having an anxiety disorder (no different than a physical injury).
And nats, even Rafa said he had a “problema mental” in his own words which led to the multiple losses he said he thought he should have won so, again, semantics.
natashao2013 (AT 5:47 PM)
—I just refuse to think that Rafa suffers…—
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I’m glad you don’t let clients of “T-X” fool you! 🙂
natashao2013 (AT 5:20 PM)
—lack of confidence comes from not trusting his own game not from the fear of opponents…that’s what Rafa has been saying all along…_—
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Yep. And U.Toni also has explained it a zillion times.
U.Toni in his interview with COP, a radio network in Spain, in Dec.2015 : “Getting injured in the AO 2014 final was a big blow. When he recovered [therapies helped him temporarily], the wrist issue happened [July 2014] and then appendicitis [Oct-Nov. 2014] when he was trying to come back. All this caused him a huge stress and lack of confidence in his body [in the 2015 season]. He was going on court [in 2015] without knowing/trusting what his body would do.”
amy,
I do think the primary issue is mental. We have seen Rafa hit his forehand with authority in one match or tournament and then it goes away in the next. No player’s level goes up and down and all over the place like that.
I do think that Rafa has lost a bit of speed with age. I think that’s normal but it’s not the end of the world. I think that it’s important to try and win more efficiently as a player gets older. That’s why I don’t like seeing Rafa struggle to win against lower ranked players in tournaments like Doha. At this point in his career it’s not helpful to his body. He can’t keep slugging it out in these kinds of matches.
There are ways to compensate for aging and also to deal with lack of confidence and loss of mental strength. These issues can and should be addressed.
Verdasco is one of the biggest chokers in tennis and yet he knew he can beat this rafa from the start of the match, so these kind of players are not afraid of Rafa anymore today Dog lost to fed and just gave up coz he has no belief but in case of rafa players have no such fear now they Beleive the can win and thats not helping rafa either he needs to win a master 1000 atleast to make sure that he is back, i still have hopes and i didn’t give up on rafa. A champion like him cant just lose lose and lose he will be back, may be for a short period of time but he will be back and he will definitely beat nole thats what my heart says but he needs to change so many things time is not on his side A new coach will bring new mindset new strategies new hopes new belief, even if its not Toni’s fault he must tell rafa to hire a new coach he can be with the team but Rafa beeds something new NOW
exactly!
Hey hey!
Ho ho!
Uncle Toni has got to go!
#RinseAndRepeat
thanks for that hawkspeare….
# poet laureate…
i was reading tennis-x earlier today …the rafa fans there are nearly all in unison in wanting to see the back of toni..
most of the site seems to think he should go
amy (AT 5:15 PM)
—i was reading tennis-x earlier today …—
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Oh, that’s the place you get your knowledge from! I happened to read that site a few times during last 5 years (when I happened to open links to it)… It has been enough! LOL
TX has fans of all stripes much moreso than here amy.
This has historically been a Rafa-Hawkeye-centric site.
But even that’s been improving recently on both counts.
there is a nice rafa fan who posts there called okiegal…she was saying that she thought that toni should go as was her friend gypsygal (also a rafa fan)…they are both thoughtful and insightful posters IMO..
there is a lot of disillusionment with toni..
also there are some very nice posters who are fans of other players but who are very respectful of rafa. they want changes because they want rafa to come back strong as the game is poorer without him.
okiegal said that she thought that toni was too proud to stand down (this is a common theme)
Yes lots of great posters there with just a few bad apples as with any site.
Verging on tragic (in terms of sports) to see Rafa struggle like this with no end in sight and no new ideas other than continue to practise and hope.
Gypsy and Okie are Legend.
i absolutely agree that rafa needs a new coach..have been saying that since last year and been resoundly attacked by some for it…
problem is though is how is toni going to work with anyone?? can you really imagine it??
To them I say…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMzd40i8TfA
how can Vajda work with Becker? Could anyone imagine it? but it works…never say never…
I don’t see Uncle T as some monster…He cares about his nephew and he wants the best for him…also, it would help him release the pressure from his own life…and all the media and public coming after him like it’s his own fault that Rafa did not win matches that he should have won…
I disagree that Toni has to go! That would be plain wrong (and stupid!) thing to do! He knows Rafa the best and Rafa trusts him. I am for adding more people to his team, leaving Toni within the team!
I agree nats. Just making light of a difficult situation.
But he needs a co-coach for sure (or, ahem, sports psychologist).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njFuxKzhYLc
after this loss to Verdasco I am positive he will need a sport psychologist…
He needed one long before that.
natashao2013 (AT 5:36 PM),
—I am positive he will need a sport psychologist…—
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If I may ask, how do YOU know whether Rafa has seen a psychologist or not?
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Rafa’s post-match press conference, QF of the Shanghai Masters 2015:
(An excerpt)
Question: “You talked many times about how you control your emotions better on court now. What changed? Did you seek help from a mental coach, sports psychologist, or did you change your own attitude?”
RAFAEL NADAL: “Well, first thing is I think that’s a personal thing. So normally I don’t like to talk about personal things. I talk about my public things, and that’s a personal thing…”
natashao2013 (AT 5:29 PM),
—I don’t see Uncle T as some monster…—
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I’m glad you don’t let the AntiRafa sites (e.g. T-X) fool you! 🙂
@ augusta 6:26 pm,
I don’t know if he does. I agree with him that it’s rather personal matter. All I am saying is that I think he will really need one to assist him in overcoming the loss like this. If he already has one all the better…
nats gets it.
amy,
I know that you have been attacked for saying that Rafa needs a new coach. But you stuck to your guns. Time has shown that staying the course and doing the same old, same old, is not working.
I was reading on VB and even there some are saying that Rafa needs a new coach or at least an addition to his team and maybe a sports psychologist. These are very devout Rafa fans and even they are realizing that Rafa needs help.
ratcliff,
Are you from tennis-x? I don’t read there much now, so I am not up on who posts there.
For tennis posting Nny, I follow various blogs and twitters but I’m enjoying Tenngrand, Ricky and fine posters here. Had been reading Ricky…anyway…don’t want to hijack this thread with stuff about me. What I like about this site is the non-tennis thread, WTA thread, WTA match thread Bouchard v Aga – awesome to see. It’s a nice evolving work in progress.
Or, I could further introduce myself on the tourneytopia bracket comment section, if you’d like 😉
ratcliff (AT 7:17 PM),
–I like about this site is the non-tennis thread, WTA thread—
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Oh! A person likes men’s tennis site because of non-tennis and women’s tennis! That makes me laugh! LOL
Well, yes, as a matter of fact, augusta.
I can talk to myself in peace on the WTA thread because it’s in the same place every day – and that’s an improvement from other men’s tennis forums. At TX there’s little attention given to WTA AND the threads sink into oblivion too fast. I requested a non tennis forum there but got no answer. There’s more, but again – this is a nice Rafa thread and what I’m posting is off topic.
ratcliff,
I would be happy to continue this on tourneytopia. Do you have the link? I am not sure I know how to comment there, but maybe you can help me.
ratcliff,
I went on the site and saw the comments. You asked if someone was me. But I don’t know how to comment there. Can you help me out?
Nny,
See if you can read and respond to the comment I left you here, it’s at the very bottom of your bracket picks:
http://www.tourneytopia.com/RacquetBracketAussieOpenATP/TheGrandstand2016/pool/entrypicks.aspx?entryid=527191
Let me know on Tenngrand non-tennis forum, if you need more help.