Australian Open Day 2 picks, including Nadal vs. Verdasco and Duckworth vs. Hewitt

Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand and Steen Kirby of Tennis Atlantic preview and pick the four best men’s singles matches on Tuesday at the Australian Open. Rafael Nadal and Lleyton Hewitt are the headliners.

(5) Rafael Nadal vs. Fernando Verdasco

Ricky: 2009 ain’t walkin’ through that door. Nadal is no longer the player he was when he beat Verdasco in one of the best matches ever played, a five-set thriller in the ’09 Australian Open semifinals. Unfortunately for Verdasco, he is even further from his prime at this point in time. Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 14-2, and Verdasco’s two wins can be easily explained. One came on a joke of a surface (blue clay, Madrid 2012) and the other came when Nadal was a shadow of his real self early in 2015 (Miami). The world No. 5 is much-improved now–at least against anyone except Novak Djokovic. This should be beatdown city. Nadal 6-3, 6-3, 6-3.

Steen: This Australian Open rematch is almost certain to come nowhere close to their 2009 semifinal epic. Verdasco beat Nadal in Miami last year and that should give him some belief, but they have been trending in opposite directions since then. With Nadal looking motivated to boost his ranking this year, I doubt he’ll want to dance much with a troublesome countryman. Look for Rafa to roll. Nadal 6-4, 7-6, 6-3.

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(WC) James Duckworth vs. (WC) Lleyton Hewitt

Ricky: Something is wrong if this one does not result in a five-set marathon. It is, of course, Hewitt’s last hurrah. And nothing screams “five-set marathon” quite like Hewitt vs. Duckworth at the Australian Open. Combined, five of their last eight matches at this event have gone to five sets. Given the fact that Hewitt is probably focused on more on his upcoming Davis Cup duties and general life after tennis than on his actual game, there are not a whole lot of players in this draw whom he would beat. But Duckworth may be one of them. Don’t be surprised if Hewitt wins an epic before David Ferrer sends him on his way. Hewitt 6-3, 2-6, 4-6, 6-4, 11-9.

Joey: At his age, Hewitt could be blitzed by the heavy pre-Australian Open farewell schedule (Hopman Cup, Sydney, Adelaide). This may well turn into his swan-song if Duckworth simply plays a consistent match and stays focused on winning amidst all the fanfare surrounding this one. But given the circumstances, it’s more likely Hewitt will put up a great fight and Duckworth will accede to his countryman under the lights. It would be far more fitting for Hewitt to be sent off by Ferrer, and thus I have him winning this one–somehow…regardless of form, record, or anything else. The former world No. 1 truly has nothing to lose now. Hewitt 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-5.

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Gilles Muller vs. (20) Fabio Fognini

Ricky: Fognini did not win a single hard-court match in 2015 until the U.S. Open. He has already won two this season (reached the Auckland quarterfinals before losing to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga). The Italian is obviously off to a much better start this season, but his third hard-court victory may not come Down Under. This is a bad first-round draw against Muller, who advanced to the Sydney semifinals last week. The 32-year-old Luxembourgian also made a run to the Aussie fourth round last season. In what should be a competitive contest, Muller will have the mental edge. Muller 6-3, 6-7, 6-1, 7-5.

Steen: Both veterans have started this year with winning records (4-2 for Muller and 2-1 for Fognini). Fognini’s performance at the U.S. Open last year demonstrates that when focused, he can be a top 20 hard-court player. Muller is more consistent as a cracking serve-and-volleyer, though, and the Sydney semifinalist reached the fourth round of the 2015 Australian Open. This one should be close, but Muller’s consistency will help him get the upset. Muller 5-7, 7-5, 7-6, 4-6, 6-4.

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(25) Jack Sock vs. (Q) Taylor Fritz

Ricky: Is it more than a coincidence that Sock withdrew from the Auckland final due to illness right after his favorite restaurant–Chipotle–announced it is shutting down for one day in February to hold a food-safety meeting? Hopefully not. If Sock is healthy (and he should be with two full days of rest), this all-American showdown is going to be straightforward. Fritz’s rise in the last half-year has been meteoric, but he is nowhere near ready from primetime. Although the 18-year-old came back from 4-0 down in the final set of the final round of qualifying against Mischa Zverev to win six games in a row, that had a lot more to do with Zverev than with Fritz. Sock 6-1, 7-5, 6-3.

Steen: This match would be easier to predict and more interesting if it wasn’t somewhat likely to end in a retirement. Sock has been playing well to start the season, he’s more experienced, and currently at a level well above Fritz. But the Auckland finalist had to retire this past Saturday due to the flu and looked miserable. Fritz is exhausted, as well, but making his first slam main draw as a qualifier should boost his spirits. He was lucky to qualify, and he may get lucky again if Sock is still sick. But Sock should grab a win if healthy. Sock 6-4, 6-3, 6-2.

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