Australian Open Day 2 picks, including Nadal vs. Verdasco and Duckworth vs. Hewitt

Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand and Steen Kirby of Tennis Atlantic preview and pick the four best men’s singles matches on Tuesday at the Australian Open. Rafael Nadal and Lleyton Hewitt are the headliners.

(5) Rafael Nadal vs. Fernando Verdasco

Ricky2009 ain’t walkin’ through that door. Nadal is no longer the player he was when he beat Verdasco in one of the best matches ever played, a five-set thriller in the ’09 Australian Open semifinals. Unfortunately for Verdasco, he is even further from his prime at this point in time. Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 14-2, and Verdasco’s two wins can be easily explained. One came on a joke of a surface (blue clay, Madrid 2012) and the other came when Nadal was a shadow of his real self early in 2015 (Miami). The world No. 5 is much-improved now–at least against anyone except Novak Djokovic. This should be beatdown city. Nadal 6-3, 6-3, 6-3.
Rafa33
Steen: This Australian Open rematch is almost certain to come nowhere close to their 2009 semifinal epic. Verdasco beat Nadal in Miami last year and that should give him some belief, but they have been trending in opposite directions since then. With Nadal looking motivated to boost his ranking this year, I doubt he’ll want to dance much with a troublesome countryman. Look for Rafa to roll. Nadal 6-4, 7-6, 6-3.

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(WC) James Duckworth vs. (WC) Lleyton Hewitt

RickySomething is wrong if this one does not result in a five-set marathon. It is, of course, Hewitt’s last hurrah. And nothing screams “five-set marathon” quite like Hewitt vs. Duckworth at the Australian Open. Combined, five of their last eight matches at this event have gone to five sets. Given the fact that Hewitt is probably focused on more on his upcoming Davis Cup duties and general life after tennis than on his actual game, there are not a whole lot of players in this draw whom he would beat. But Duckworth may be one of them. Don’t be surprised if Hewitt wins an epic before David Ferrer sends him on his way. Hewitt 6-3, 2-6, 4-6, 6-4, 11-9.

JoeyAt his age, Hewitt could be blitzed by the heavy pre-Australian Open farewell schedule (Hopman Cup, Sydney, Adelaide). This may well turn into his swan-song if Duckworth simply plays a consistent match and stays focused on winning amidst all the fanfare surrounding this one. But given the circumstances, it’s more likely Hewitt will put up a great fight and Duckworth will accede to his countryman under the lights. It would be far more fitting for Hewitt to be sent off by Ferrer, and thus I have him winning this one–somehow…regardless of form, record, or anything else. The former world No. 1 truly has nothing to lose now. Hewitt 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-5.

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Gilles Muller vs. (20) Fabio Fognini

Ricky
Fognini did not win a single hard-court match in 2015 until the U.S. Open. He has already won two this season (reached the Auckland quarterfinals before losing to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga). The Italian is obviously off to a much better start this season, but his third hard-court victory may not come Down Under. This is a bad first-round draw against Muller, who advanced to the Sydney semifinals last week. The 32-year-old Luxembourgian also made a run to the Aussie fourth round last season. In what should be a competitive contest, Muller will have the mental edge. Muller 6-3, 6-7, 6-1, 7-5.
Muller 1
SteenBoth veterans have started this year with winning records (4-2 for Muller and 2-1 for Fognini). Fognini’s performance at the U.S. Open last year demonstrates that when focused, he can be a top 20 hard-court player. Muller is more consistent as a cracking serve-and-volleyer, though, and the Sydney semifinalist reached the fourth round of the 2015 Australian Open. This one should be close, but Muller’s consistency will help him get the upset. Muller 5-7, 7-5, 7-6, 4-6, 6-4.

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(25) Jack Sock vs. (Q) Taylor Fritz

RickyIs it more than a coincidence that Sock withdrew from the Auckland final due to illness right after his favorite restaurant–Chipotle–announced it is shutting down for one day in February to hold a food-safety meeting? Hopefully not. If Sock is healthy (and he should be with two full days of rest), this all-American showdown is going to be straightforward. Fritz’s rise in the last half-year has been meteoric, but he is nowhere near ready from primetime. Although the 18-year-old came back from 4-0 down in the final set of the final round of qualifying against Mischa Zverev to win six games in a row, that had a lot more to do with Zverev than with Fritz. Sock 6-1, 7-5, 6-3.

SteenThis match would be easier to predict and more interesting if it wasn’t somewhat likely to end in a retirement. Sock has been playing well to start the season, he’s more experienced, and currently at a level well above Fritz. But the Auckland finalist had to retire this past Saturday due to the flu and looked miserable. Fritz is exhausted, as well, but making his first slam main draw as a qualifier should boost his spirits. He was lucky to qualify, and he may get lucky again if Sock is still sick. But Sock should grab a win if healthy. Sock 6-4, 6-3, 6-2.

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74 Comments on Australian Open Day 2 picks, including Nadal vs. Verdasco and Duckworth vs. Hewitt

  1. These kinds of early losses, especially in slams, are devastating for a champion like Rafa. I remember the look in his eyes after he lost early in Wimbledon to Brown. These last three early exits from slams are devastating for him.

    There is just no question that Rafa needs some help. He tried going it alone all last year and practicing harder and harder. It’s not working.

    • This video gives me new hope he has shown in pieces he has that magic but need to convert those pieces into a one frame to be the Rafa again the REAL Rafa

    • These clips of his sputtering intermittent genius just confirms my belief that his problems are not physical.

      Without a fix to his “mental problema” (as he called it), the consistency will never return and that is what’s been sorely missing for the last two years.

      I want to believe he can do it but time is not on his side.

      • Totally agree with what you said. I hope he would seek help from others but it is so frustrating that he’s wasted so much time sticking with what’s not working.

  2. I simply cannot imagine anyone looking at that presser and seeing the pain and sadness in Rafa’s eyes and not wanting better for him. There is no reason that he should carry this burden all on his own. He’s been practicing hard for a year now and it’s not carrying over into his match performances.

    Rafa deserves to have some help. No matter what kind of help it is, anything is better than seeing him like this.

  3. Rafa should seek help to fix his mental issues and his serve issues.

    Rafa was of course sad after the loss but he remained positive. I read a google translated version of his Spanish interview done before he left Melbourne. He mentioned something about the ball change – the balls are now hollow and light and wont stay long on the racket string so he’s not able to hit well with his topspin. When asked about his serve problem, he said something like now he’s not given much time to think and prepare so his serve is not as good as before.

    I do feel he will do better on clay. On clay, he knows he has more time to deal with the big hitters as the clay surface slows the ball down and he has time to get into position to set up his shots.

    On a side note, I really feel that Rafa should not play at AO last year, a return too soon imo. He should have taken Jan 2015 off to train hard and came back in Feb to play on clay just like he did in 2013.

    This early defeat, as painful as it is, does give him more time now to work on clay. I do feel that if he does well at SA, he will regain some confidence.

    What he also need to fix is his shot selection. He was hitting with topspin CC but landed short and so comfortable for Verdasco to attack. He should be hitting flatter more penetrating shots diagonally so he wont be overhitting but able to force Verdasco back. He was hitting too flat when going DTL and so the ball flew over the baseline, when hitting with topspin would let the ball dip just on the baseline. He was hitting a soft drop shot at the net when he should slam the ball hard to the corner when Verdasco was already rushing to the net. All these wrong shot selections made me felt that Rafa was not thinking clearly out there. Perhaps he’s still not sure when to hit flat and when to use his topspin, now that he’s trying to flatten his shots for the HCs.

    • His anxiety severely impacts his ability to think clearly which in turn negatively impacts his shot selection.

      Same can be said for feeling rushed on his serve. With the enforcement of the new time violation rule, Rafa no longer has time to perform his preserve rituals he used to calm himself.

      • Rafa is too stubborn; he should have cut out a lot of the rituals long ago. Whilst I think the enforcement of the TV is ridiculous, I don’t think the rituals helped with his serve, that much. Djoker cut out the never ending ball bouncing so really, Rafa should have worked out a new routine for his serve by now. He did well in the IPTL within the time limits between points.

    • luckystar (AT 4:18 AM)
      —I read a google translated version of his Spanish interview done before he left Melbourne. …—
      ===
      .
      Could you post a link to this interview or the headline of the article. I know that he practiced with the official ball of the 2016 AO in Mallorca, but I haven’t read more about that.
      This photo was taken during Rafa’s practice in Mallorca in Dec.:
      https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CXZu3nAWAAAOrh2.jpg

  4. At this point, I can only hope that Rafa can regroup in SA. He needs to regain some confidence after this latest loss. He’s still got I/W and Miami and then the clay season. But he needs to get some wins and maybe a title here and there to get himself going.

    Losing early in a slam doesn’t give confidence. I think these early exits at three slams in a row have to hurt.

    I thought it was apparent that Rafa was unable to think clearly in this first round match. He started off playing nervous and tentative in that first set. I had a bad feeling right from the beginning, but told myself that there was time for Rafa to work his way into the match. I thought he had it under control when he was up two sets to one.

    Rafa was not able to make the adjustments that seem to have come so naturally to him throughout his career. He’s been so good thinking on his feet in the middle of matches. He was always able to regroup. But that quality was lacking.

    He seemed to be on the right track in the closing months of the year. But it’s been one step forward and two steps back.

    • He’s getting used to new racket strings now ( he was using old racket during WTF) and the balls they’re using at the AO didnt help. He’s also learning when to hit flat and when with topspin, needs some mastering as he’s not used to doing that.

      To me the main problem is still his serve. He really needs to learn to serve within the time limit, ie be more instinctive when serving instead of having to think so much before he serves.

  5. I didn’t realize that Rafa was still using the old racket at WTF.

    It would be good for Rafa to play at BA and Rio and maybe get some good feelings back on the clay.

    • NNY, after reading some articles/comments, I come to a conclusion that Rafa is still in the transition phase of his game. He’s trying to find his aggressive game of 2010/2013 again but this time there are some complications:

      1) he’s still getting used to his new racket/strings;
      2) he recognizes that he has to hit a flatter FH to be more effective on the HCs, now that he has lost some power on his topspin FH;
      3) as a result of pt no.2, he’s a bit confused as to when to hit a flat FH vs a topspin one and fell into same old habit of hitting a CC topspin FH which was not effective vs Verdasco. He also tends to overhit his FH when hitting it DTL;
      4) he tried to move inside the court as shown during the WTF with success but because of his poor serve at the AO, he wasn’t able to do so and was forced to play more defence;
      5) the TV rule had affected his serve with him saying he didn’t have enough time to think and prepare;
      6) he’s caught between defending and attacking, hesitant whether to defend or to attack sometimes;
      7) his BHDTL is still a WIP, and his ROS too.

      I think he needs time to figure out how to play his more aggressive game with the implementation of the current changes he’s making. I think he will get there when he gets the balance between defence and offence right, and gets the gist of when to hit with topspin and when a flat shot. The most important thing is to fix the serve, by serving with instinct and not being deliberate. Maybe just practice serving to targeted spots until he can do it with eyes close! I feel if he gets the precision right he can then serve with confidence or at least at ease. He needs that serve down the T badly, the one he used to serve to get out of troubles in the past.

  6. Sela is beating Verdasco – he is 2 sets – 1 and 4:1 in the 4th set!

    I can’t believe that Rafa lost to Verdasco. What is wrong with Rafa???????????????

  7. I think that I was the only one who predicted Sela to win this match. He hasn’t won it yet, but the ESPN commies are talking about Nando seeming tired. That’s what Rafa takes out of his opponents.

    Nobody can believe that Rafa lost to Nando. It’s like being in a nightmare and then you realize that it’s actually happening.

    • thanks sanju…

      Uncle T is very smart and he will know where to go from here…I hope they add someone to the team to provide for fresh ideas on how to make small but significant changes…I agree Rafa can not make substantive changes to his style of play…it’s too late for it…but he can improve Rafa’s strategy against those “big hitting blood seeking opponents”…

  8. so in that Spanish article, is Rafa saying his string and changed racquet connect with newer balls is an issue? What can he do to correct it?

    Flat shots will not work as effectively as Topspin FH on clay..Rafa needs to learn to use both based on situation . The thing is flat shots will give him lesser time to react as ball will come back faster from other side in return .

    Technical gurus, inputs please?

  9. Ben Rothenberg
    ‏@BenRothenberg
    Rosol
    Darcis
    Wawrinka
    Kyrgios
    Berdych
    Brown
    Fognini
    Verdasco at #AusOpen

    8 straight have lost next Slam match after Nadal upset.”

    Without Rafa spoon feeding them short balls, they would all lose. Has little or nothing to do with their level and everything to do with Rafa’s lack thereof.

    The players that beat them in the next round aren’t as generous as this Rafa shadow.

    Get well soon Rafa.

    #MIA
    #AWOL

    • I think you are forgetting an important factor which is: Rafa lost his invisibility aura and all the players have belief in beating him! Rafa’s confidence is low and in key moments he makes uncharacteristic or so to say unexpected errors. For instance, if Rafa did not double fault in that first set tie-break he could have won the first set and everything could have been different from there on…

      Rafa losing to those hard hitting players was also Rafa’s weakness in the past but he would manage to pull out the wins due to his mental strength, his confidence and his belief…and the absence of belief on his opponents side was also helpful… that’s all gone now and Rafa is forced to do it hard way…

      • He lost his aura because he hit short and lost matches he shouldn’t.

        Players beat him because he lost his aura.

        Yes but he lost his aura because he repeatedly lost matches to lower ranked players.

        But the lower ranked players beat him because he lost his aura.

        It’s a chicken and egg situation.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpKqMC2YfwI

      • I do agree that Rafa has lost his aura of invincibility. Players do not fear him anymore. They think that they have a chance against him.

        Rafa double faulting in that first set TB was pure nerves. He seemed nervous and tentative right from the start in that match. Also Rafa had 4 double faults in his first two service games in that match. You just don’t see Rafa having many DF’s when he’s playing well.

        Rafa has won so many matches in his career on sheer mental will. He’s won when he was outplayed and should have lost. That’s why these losses are so alarming. Rafa always found a way to win.

  10. Toni says, “”I hope it is only a blip and we move forward.”

    Missing six slam semis in a row is more than a “blip”.

    #YouSerious???

    • I think he referred to Rafa’s recent success in the WTF and Abu Dhabi…he was not observing it on a long-time basis I would think…I am not defending Uncle T but at least he is talking about adding someone to the team…that’s a progress… 🙂 It’s still Rafa’s decision though…

      • natashao2013 (AT 2:21 PM)
        —I am not defending Uncle T but at least he is talking about adding someone to the team…that’s a progress…—
        ===
        .
        Could you quote U.Toni’s text.

        • I understand that in sport results come first and if you have to make a change, you have to do it,” Toni Nadal told Spanish radio station Cadena Cope on Wednesday.

          are you saying that Toni was interpreted wrongly and that he was talking about some other change? Well, we can only speculate but the title is on the subject of “coaching change” not something else…

          • natashao2013 (2:43 PM)
            — are you saying that Toni was interpreted wrongly and that he was talking about some other change? Well, we can only speculate—
            ===
            .
            I agree that you are speculating. 🙂
            The text in the article: ¤¤ Toni said that “I am aware that in the sport the things depend on the results and if you have to make a change you have to do it. The game plan he used for all his career now is lower. It’s not so easy to play in a different way after 15 years. Losing that early in Australia is one of the biggest disappointments we have had because in the last four months we have been playing well. Here we practiced well but things did not go as planned. I hope that it’s only a stumble and that we keep practicing and analyzing what we did not well to do better in the next tournament.” ¤¤
            I didn’t found anything about a coach change in U.Toni’s phrases.

          • so you are saying the author of this article is not telling the truth and the headline is misleading? well, then I say you are also speculating… 🙂

          • natashao2013 (AT 2:21 PM)
            —…Uncle T but at least he is talking about adding someone to the team…that’s a progress…—
            ===
            .
            It’s not the first time that the media is creating sensational headlines. 🙂

            For example:
            October 05, 2015: ¤¤ Uncle Toni Opens Door to ‘Super-Coach’ for Rafael Nadal.
            (Excerpts)
            “I think you need to ask Rafael,” he said at the China Open in Beijing, when asked by AFP if Nadal should consider a new mentor.

            “It’s true that this year he’s going a little down but I am sure the comeback of Rafael is coming soon.
            “Maybe if next year Rafael is playing not too good, then I think he can think about some changes in his game or in his team.” ¤¤
            http://sports.ndtv.com/tennis/news/249607-uncle-toni-opens-door-to-super-coach-for-rafael-nadal

          • natashao2013 (AT 4:08 PM)
            —are saying the author of this article is not telling the truth and the headline is misleading?—
            ===
            .
            I am saying that I would like to see/hear evidences. I haven’t found them so far.

  11. “Nadal admitted after the defeat to Verdasco that the new brand of aggressive tennis on the ATP tour was more difficult for him to handle.”

    Versdasco is the new brand.

    But apparently not for Sela.

    #BraveNewWorld
    #YouSerious???

    • I suppose Rafa meant the hard hitting sometimes going for broke brand of tennis that more and more players are employing these days – quick points, quick winners, not interested in point construction or any kind of strategy, many times going for broke.

      So my question is: since Rafa cant stop this trend or this brand of tennis, what’s he going to do to counter that and stays relevant?

      And…I suppose Rafa and his coach Toni are trying to work out something, be it minor changes to Rafa’s game, or some strategic gameplan, to deal with this current trend.

      I feel, like some here, that the 2013 Rafa will suffice. The 2013 Rafa was aggressive enough, willing to move forward and dictated points, served well, hit a great FH and moved well. The most important thing was, he had no fear but was full of confidence after overcoming the initial hiccup at his first clay event on his comeback.

        • Rafa had talked about this new trend during FO2015 after playing against Jack Sock. I wasnt referring specifically to this AO.

          • luckystar (AT 6:46 PM),

            But you commented the words the media put into Rafa’s mouth after his match this week.

          • Which comment? If you’re referring to the interview in Spanish, that wasnt done at the AO press conference.

          • Exactly hawkeye. There’re so many translation versions from Spanish to English. What I’m referring to is the ‘new brand’ of tennis, not what Rafa had said, or not.

            Rafa had mentioned this ‘new’ brand of tennis during FO2015, so its only logical for me to assume he’s referring to the same thing here at the AO.

          • Luckystar (AT 8:03 PM),
            ¤ Currently, the words NEW BRAND (put in Rafa’mouth) have nothing to do with translation from Spanish! The article is written in English and the author of it has also referred to Rafa’s real phrases from his post-match interview in English this week in Melbourne.
            .
            ¤ Some posters are commenting and laughing at words “NEW TREND” put into Rafa’s mouth THIS week. The author of the article writes about AO2016, not FO2015.

          • The issue is that Rafa’s level has dropped precipitously since 2013. Anyone who watched his matches that year and sees him now, could not help but notice the difference.

            There is no new brand of tennis out there. The truth is that there have always been guys who go out on the court, play aggressive, swing for the fences as though they have nothing to lose. They have been around forever. It’s nothing new at all.

            The other unfortunate truth is that Rafa used to know how to handle their brand of tennis and beat them.

      • Lucky, yes that’s obbviously what he meant when he said:

        “The game is changing a little bit. Everybody now tries to hit all the balls. There is no balls that you can prepare the point, no? Everybody hit the ball hard and try to go for the winners in any position. Game become a little bit more crazy in this aspect.”

        However he conceded that he didn’t do enough to put the ball in difficult position for them to do this.

        The Top 4 don’t seem to be too affected in slams by this brand of tennis.

        Nor would 2013 Rafa.

        #ProblemaMental

        • Yeah Hawkeye, we know Rafa clearly has his problem now.

          I do appreciate the big four that we have, they dont play hard hitting brute force, almost brainless tennis.

          When Rafa first started out, many people were so critical of him, saying he relied on his brute force or raw power. They looked at his physique and assumed his brand of tennis relied on brute force and speed and nothing else. They failed to see the intricacy of his game – how he patiently constructed points, getting himself into advantageous positions and then trapped his opponents before going for the kill.

          While Fed played his quick attacking brand of tennis using his variety of shots, Rafa used his strategic brain to beat his opponents. Rafa also has no shortage of shot making abilities.

          Both Novak and Murray too play thinking tennis, not using raw power to overcome their opponents.

          Fed always upgrade his game to stay relevant; I do believe Rafa can too as long as he’s willing.

  12. Toni says:
    “The strategy he has played with his whole life matters less now. It isn’t easy to change style after 15 years.”

    How does he know it matters less??? He’s rarely employed that strategy since 2013.

    #ToniYouSerious???

  13. “According to Clarin, Rafa will play probably his next tournament in Buenos Aires. A few weeks ago Rafa said that he would have trained to South America after Australian Open, but because of losing that early he is arriving to Mallorca to practice on clay. ‘Almost surely he will play Buenos Aires’ – said Nicolas Almagro.”

    Some have tried to “correct” others by saying Rafa would not return to Spain.

    #UnreliableSourcesAreEverywhere
    #WhereIsRafa?

    • Rafa’s comments are kind of concerning. Does he really believe that Verdasco did anything special in their match? Look at what happened in his next match against the likes of Sela! He didn’t look so good there. However, we do know that beating Rafa takes it out of players. I just don’t think that Verdasco did anything special. He pretty much took what Rafa gave him.

  14. had a quick skim read on tennis-x this morning. there is a piece by sean saying that in his view rafa’s problems are almost entirely mental. who would have thought that sean would be so perceptive!
    as he said though, at one level it’s good that it’s mental because that is fixable..at the other, it’s bad because he and his team don’t seem able to..

      • thing is though he’s one of the few to see and write the obvious…why all this talk about the game changing so much?? the 2013 rafa would still be beating people up fine…also the 2013 rafa would know how to add things to his game and adapt anyway…

      • When all is said and done, isn’t it about what is best for Rafa? That’s how I see it. I would hope that Sean Randall’s piece is out of genuine concern for Rafa and realization that he is important to this sport. That’s how I would like to take what he said.

    • amy,

      It’s bad because mental issues are more difficult to resolve. It’s not like changing a faulty technique on a shot or correcting a serving position. The comments from Uncle Toni do not give me any encouragement. This idea that somehow a new style of tennis has been invented, is really disingenuous. There have always been guys who come out blasting with big serves and big forehands and just go for it. There are tactics to counter it. Rafa used to know how to do it.

      • Nativenewyorker (AT 11:53 PM)
        —The comments from Uncle Toni do not give me any encouragement—
        ===
        .
        The comments that he did not say…

  15. —Nadal admitted after the defeat to Verdasco that the NEW BRAND of aggressive tennis on the ATP tour was more difficult for him to handle.—
    (AT 2:13 PM, AT 2:17 PM, AT 3:22 PM)
    ===
    .
    The thing is, I did NOT find THESE words in Rafa’s post-match interview on January 19, 2016:
    http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/news/interviews/2016-01-19/rafael_nadal_190116.html

    I would like to know when Rafa said THESE words (or has the journalist put them into Rafa’s mouth?).

  16. —Toni says, “I hope it is only a BLIP and we move forward.” —
    (AT 2:11 PM, AT 3:51 PM, AT 3:54 PM)
    ===
    .
    Somebody has put THIS word in U.Toni’s mouth. (And some clients of T-X have had fun here.)
    .
    europa press, Jan. 20, 2016: “But I hope it’s a setback and we’ll move forward in the near future, ” Toni Nadal said to Cadena COPE.

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