Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand and Steen Kirby of Tennis Atlantic preview and pick the four best men’s singles matches on Tuesday at the Australian Open. Rafael Nadal and Lleyton Hewitt are the headliners.
(5) Rafael Nadal vs. Fernando Verdasco
Ricky: 2009 ain’t walkin’ through that door. Nadal is no longer the player he was when he beat Verdasco in one of the best matches ever played, a five-set thriller in the ’09 Australian Open semifinals. Unfortunately for Verdasco, he is even further from his prime at this point in time. Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 14-2, and Verdasco’s two wins can be easily explained. One came on a joke of a surface (blue clay, Madrid 2012) and the other came when Nadal was a shadow of his real self early in 2015 (Miami). The world No. 5 is much-improved now–at least against anyone except Novak Djokovic. This should be beatdown city. Nadal 6-3, 6-3, 6-3.
Steen: This Australian Open rematch is almost certain to come nowhere close to their 2009 semifinal epic. Verdasco beat Nadal in Miami last year and that should give him some belief, but they have been trending in opposite directions since then. With Nadal looking motivated to boost his ranking this year, I doubt he’ll want to dance much with a troublesome countryman. Look for Rafa to roll. Nadal 6-4, 7-6, 6-3.
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(WC) James Duckworth vs. (WC) Lleyton Hewitt
Ricky: Something is wrong if this one does not result in a five-set marathon. It is, of course, Hewitt’s last hurrah. And nothing screams “five-set marathon” quite like Hewitt vs. Duckworth at the Australian Open. Combined, five of their last eight matches at this event have gone to five sets. Given the fact that Hewitt is probably focused on more on his upcoming Davis Cup duties and general life after tennis than on his actual game, there are not a whole lot of players in this draw whom he would beat. But Duckworth may be one of them. Don’t be surprised if Hewitt wins an epic before David Ferrer sends him on his way. Hewitt 6-3, 2-6, 4-6, 6-4, 11-9.
Joey: At his age, Hewitt could be blitzed by the heavy pre-Australian Open farewell schedule (Hopman Cup, Sydney, Adelaide). This may well turn into his swan-song if Duckworth simply plays a consistent match and stays focused on winning amidst all the fanfare surrounding this one. But given the circumstances, it’s more likely Hewitt will put up a great fight and Duckworth will accede to his countryman under the lights. It would be far more fitting for Hewitt to be sent off by Ferrer, and thus I have him winning this one–somehow…regardless of form, record, or anything else. The former world No. 1 truly has nothing to lose now. Hewitt 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-5.
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Gilles Muller vs. (20) Fabio Fognini
Ricky: Fognini did not win a single hard-court match in 2015 until the U.S. Open. He has already won two this season (reached the Auckland quarterfinals before losing to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga). The Italian is obviously off to a much better start this season, but his third hard-court victory may not come Down Under. This is a bad first-round draw against Muller, who advanced to the Sydney semifinals last week. The 32-year-old Luxembourgian also made a run to the Aussie fourth round last season. In what should be a competitive contest, Muller will have the mental edge. Muller 6-3, 6-7, 6-1, 7-5.
Steen: Both veterans have started this year with winning records (4-2 for Muller and 2-1 for Fognini). Fognini’s performance at the U.S. Open last year demonstrates that when focused, he can be a top 20 hard-court player. Muller is more consistent as a cracking serve-and-volleyer, though, and the Sydney semifinalist reached the fourth round of the 2015 Australian Open. This one should be close, but Muller’s consistency will help him get the upset. Muller 5-7, 7-5, 7-6, 4-6, 6-4.
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(25) Jack Sock vs. (Q) Taylor Fritz
Ricky: Is it more than a coincidence that Sock withdrew from the Auckland final due to illness right after his favorite restaurant–Chipotle–announced it is shutting down for one day in February to hold a food-safety meeting? Hopefully not. If Sock is healthy (and he should be with two full days of rest), this all-American showdown is going to be straightforward. Fritz’s rise in the last half-year has been meteoric, but he is nowhere near ready from primetime. Although the 18-year-old came back from 4-0 down in the final set of the final round of qualifying against Mischa Zverev to win six games in a row, that had a lot more to do with Zverev than with Fritz. Sock 6-1, 7-5, 6-3.
Steen: This match would be easier to predict and more interesting if it wasn’t somewhat likely to end in a retirement. Sock has been playing well to start the season, he’s more experienced, and currently at a level well above Fritz. But the Auckland finalist had to retire this past Saturday due to the flu and looked miserable. Fritz is exhausted, as well, but making his first slam main draw as a qualifier should boost his spirits. He was lucky to qualify, and he may get lucky again if Sock is still sick. But Sock should grab a win if healthy. Sock 6-4, 6-3, 6-2.
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who ya got?
monfills – sugita
i do see value here to go with the dog, since monfills was injured a lot recently, i dont believe that he is 100% good to go,..afaik sugita feels very comfortable on hard and it will be a very tough one for monfills.
what u guys think ?
probably won’t happen but worth a flier
You never know with Monfils. What are Sugita’s odds?
on 365 @6.50
sugita winning would be awesome for my 10game parlays due to the 50 % bonus on 365 .
who else do you have
i added f.lopez; ferrer; Sock; Hewitt; wawrinka; anderson; raonic; isner and murray @26
all should win
Muller in four sock in four Nadal in three and Hewitt in five.
Nadal, Fognini Duckworth and Sock.
OOP
Rod Laver Arena 11:00 AM Start
1. Women’s Singles – Round 1
Anett Kontaveit (EST) vs. Garbiñe Muguruza (ESP)[3]
2. Women’s Singles – Round 1
Venus Williams (USA)[8] vs. Johanna Konta (GBR)
3. Men’s Singles – Round 1
Rafael Nadal (ESP)[5] vs. Fernando Verdasco (ESP)
Rod Laver Arena 7:00 PM Start
1. Men’s Singles – Round 1
James Duckworth (AUS) vs. Lleyton Hewitt (AUS)
2. Women’s Singles – Round 1
Victoria Azarenka (BLR)[14] vs. Alison Van Uytvanck (BEL)
OOP
Margaret Court Arena 11:00 AM Start
1. Women’s Singles – Round 1
Madison Keys (USA)[15] vs. Zarina Diyas (KAZ)
2. Men’s Singles – Round 1
Alexander Zverev (GER) vs. Andy Murray (GBR)[2]
3. Women’s Singles – Round 1
Anastasija Sevastova (LAT) vs. Jarmila Wolfe (AUS)
Margaret Court Arena 7:00 PM Start
1. Women’s Singles – Round 1
Shuai Zhang (CHN) vs. Simona Halep (ROU)[2]
2. Men’s Singles – Round 1
Dmitry Tursunov (RUS) vs. Stan Wawrinka (SUI)[4]
I decided that I will go with Rafa winning in 3 sets. I thought that Verdasco might get a set, but I think Rafa will be ready for him.
Hewitt over Duckworth in 4 sets.
Muller over Fognini in 4 sets.
Sock in 3 sets.
I still think Verdasco will take a set off Rafa. I don’t know enough about Duckworth, but Hewitt will probably win. Muller and Fognini is a toss up, I’ll go with Fognini having a good day and Muller a bad. Sock and Fritz, all depends on how Sock is feeling. He should win, but if he’s still sick, could be interesting. Sorry to see Ivo retire and what happened with Querrey? Only saw part of that match.
I wasn’t able to see the matches. I think the tennis channel is replaying them today. I saw Novak and Chung this morning. I was surprised to hear that Karlovic retired. I thought he would get through the first round. I also checked the scores today and saw that Querrey retired while being up two sets. That’s tough.
If Sock is still under the weather with that flu bug, then that would be the only problem I could see. The thing about being sick is that you don’t necessarily recover your physical strength that quickly. I remember so well what happened to Rafa in 2011 when he got so sick at Doha. He never really got his strength back in time for the AO and ultimately lost to Ferrer in the quarterfinals.
I went back and forth so many times about whether Rafa will lose a set to Verdasco. The only way I see it happening is if for some reason Rafa starts slow or isn’t on his game. We know that players try to peak as they get into the second week. In the first week, it’s all about getting through the early rounds.
I picked Muller for my bracket. But it very well could go either way. I think that I also picked Querrey, too. I did pick Hewitt over Duckworth. That’s why I think the early rounds are the hardest to pick. You just don’t know at times who will make it through. Retirements can’t be anticipated.
My first round picks will stink, Nny. Already know it! And I’ve been doing ATP brackets 7 years. All in fun. (well, admit I’ve put a little money down a few times but not on an early round – not that brave) Wish I would have put 5 dollars on Flavia Pennetta US Open!!
Nativenewyorker (AT 3:55 PM),
—Rafa in 2011 when he got so sick at Doha. He never really got his strength back in time for the AO and ultimately lost to Ferrer in the quarterfinals.—
===
.
Plus Rafa suffered a (left) hamstring injury in the second game of the first set.
i’m going for hewitt, foggy and sock.
i admit to being very nervous about how rafa plays in the early rounds. even when he’s playing really well he gets nervous at the beginning of slams and however much he may have improved recently he’s nowhere near peak rafa. also, he’s done so badly in the last 2 slams that i am worried he will be even more nervous than usual and feel under pressure. i think he beats verdasco but i wouldn’t be surprised to see him lose a set and make uncharacteristic errors with his forehand.
amy, I might be too optimistic and underrating Fernando to say Rafa in 3. After 1st round who does Rafa have: Harrison, Kuznetsov, Gulbis, or Chardy; then it does get harder with Monfils, Anderson, Raonic, Troicki, Sock, Rosol, or Wawrinka. The only one I see as truly dangerous is Stan. Of course, I may be wrong. Imo, Rafa’s draw is not as easy as Andy Murray’s draw but not that bad.
just worried about the nerves issue ratcliff…also, i didn’t see the matches in doha but i’ve read the comments and lucky especially has commented on his problems putting opponents away quickly. that’s been a problem for some time, the squandering of breaks and letting matches go on far too long. if he has to play long matches in the early rounds he’ll be significantly disadvantaged against both stan and andy. andy’s draw is very easy and he could come into the semis fresh while his opponent could be frazzled (literally in the heat!!)
Not sure further comment from me is what the Rafa fan base wants 😉
Agree about long matches = not good. It does matter more now. That’s why picking Rafa in 3 – he’ll be more able to tackle a depleted Stan in 4; then Andy in 4 and have something left for the final. Sticking by my pick after Doha – the one to beat Rafa is Nole.
And who does Nole have? Halys then Kudla or Seppi; then, Simon, Tsonga, Kei, Federer, Berdych, Dimi, or Kyrgios. Tsonga or Simon and then Kei could be tricky but I don’t see Nole losing anywhere. Out of Fed, Berd, Dimi, Kyrgios, the most interesting opponent to me is Kyrgios — the others we’ve seen and they’d need some genuine good fortune cookies. Any match can take a toll on Nole, but Berdych is the easiest of the bunch. Should have picked Berdych. Kyrgios is a silly stretch of imagination, I know.
My biggest worry at the moment for Nole is the heat and how red his face looked during his Chung match. Chung did push him for awhile. Kudos to Hyeong Chung – bright future.
poor nole!! i expect he will glow in the dark after that one…we know he doesn’t like the heat but i still think he will handle things…he’s so tough mentally and physically now…
hope so, because i want him in the final!!
As with all AO’s, the top seed in the same half as Rog gets the day match while Rog creates genius in the evening cool.
Nothing new.
haha…hawk. Perks. Tribal Elder statesman.
That’s why Seppi beat him last year.
Rare day match and the sun blinded his night biased retinas.
is quite hard to see dolgo, dimi and co really troubling fed unless he is just having a dreadful day at the office. i do think nick could do damage. berdy doesn’t seem to be able to pull off the big wins any more…
i would like to see a fedole semi anyway…i don’t see anyone stopping nole getting to the final unless something unforeseen happens.
if stanimal shows up in the quarters he would be a very tough test while ferrer won’t bother andy…i expect andy to be fresh as a daisy come the semis….but sometimes when he’s had things too easy that hasn’t helped him in the later rounds.
I too think Nick may be the guy to trouble Nole the most.
Rafa in 3
Sock in 4 (if he’s 100%, in 3)
Hewitt in 5…go Rusty!
Fogna takes his time in 5…go Fabs!
ratcliff,
I appreciate your optimism about Rafa in his first match. I did finally go with 3 sets, but with a caveat. The good thing is that Rafa will know what to expect. But he usually isn’t at his best in the early going and that’s to be expected.
I agree that Rafa has a good draw, second only to Murray. I can’t complain. He avoided some really dangerous guys in the early rounds.
How comes no comment on the match fixing allegations? Who are the players involved?
some stuff is probably coming out
I did read some of it. All I saw from what I read was about Davy.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/more-sports/djokovics-comments-push-tenniss-match-fixing-scandal-to-centre-court/article28239970/
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/playPopup?id=14596803
Keep calm, stay focused, be confident and show your fighting spirit, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZC5_u4WEAAqPth.png
Rafa and Nando in the house!
I am watching the match on iplayer because Eurosport is till showing Fog vs Muller instead of the match they say everyone is looking forward to?????????????????
So far they’re doing you a favour.
You haven’t missed much.
Rafa not looking good AT ALL in the early goings.
Zero aggression.
Luckily nando not good enough to take advantage.