Unpredictability is one of the reasons why we love women’s tennis. Three different players won the first three Grand Slam titles so far in the season, and the world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is not among them. She was so close in each of those tournaments, and now the Belarusian is left with one last chance to win a major in 2025. With the US Open right around the corner, the latest tennis Vegas odds show Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka leading the pack as the top favorites. Sabalenka is the US Open defending champion, which gives her a reason to believe that she can win in New York and a huge dose of pressure at the same time.
Aryna Sabalenka’s 2025 Season
Sabalenka has won three titles so far in the season, but since none of those came in a major tournament, the season cannot be labeled as successful. Still, she is safe on top of the WTA rankings with more than 3,000 points advantage over Iga Swiatek.
The first title in 2025, Sabalenka won in the opening week of the season in Brisbane, defeating Polina Kudermetova in the final. She went on to win the first 11 matches of the season, but unexpectedly lost in the Australian Open final to Madison Keys. That loss completely crushed her confidence, and Sabalenka won only one match in February in Doha and Dubai.
She returned to her recognizable form in March, losing in the final in Indian Wells to Mirra Andreeva and then winning the title in Miami, defeating Jessica Pegula in the final. April brought the same scenario as Sabalenka first lost in the Stuttgart final to Julia Ostapenko, and then won the title in Madrid, defeating Coco Gauff in the final. These two met in the French Open final the following month, but this time Sabalenka lost after winning the first set.
The grass season was just average for Sabalenka, as she lost in the semis in Berlin to Marketa Vondrousova and then to Amanda Anisimova at Wimbledon. After taking a month off, Sabalenka returned to action in Cincinnati just to lose to Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals.
Sabalenka goes to the US Open with a 51-10 record in the season and 26-5 on hard surface. No matter what happens in New York, she will stay on top of the WTA rankings.
Who Can Stop the World No. 1?
Sabalenka’s biggest rival has been Iga Swiatek, and the Pole is her main threat in New York as well. After a rough start to the season, Swiatek won Wimbledon in dominant fashion and will be on top of her game at the US Open. Swiatek won the title in New York in 2022 and has a 9-5 record in head-to-head matches against Sabalenka, but the Belarusian has won their last two meetings, at the French Open semis this season, and the same stage of the Cincinnati tournament in 2024.
World No. 3 Coco Gauff is another player who may be a huge problem for Sabalenka. The 2023 US Open champion will have the support of the home crowd in New York and defeated the Belarusian in the French Open final this season, for a 6-5 record in the head-to-head meetings between the two. Gauff moves well on hard surface and is one of the very few players who do that on the highest possible level, like Sabalenka.
World No. 4 Jessica Pegula is not playing her best tennis so far in the season, but just like Gauff, she will have the support from the stands in New York. Pegula reached the final last year and will look for another opportunity to win her first major title.
Can Sabalenka win in New York?
There is no doubt that Sabalenka is the best player at the moment, but as usual, women’s tennis is tough to predict. That’s why everyone is already keeping an eye on the live Vegas odds for tennis, which highlight just how much of a favorite she is coming into New York. Sabalanka has been playing exceptionally well in New York over the last couple of seasons, reaching the final in her previous two appearances and winning the title last year. She comes with a chip on her shoulder since she hasn’t won a major since then, and that will be a huge motivation for her. Sabalenka is the type of player who plays on a high level in every match, and no player will be a real threat in the first four rounds of the tournament. When the real battle starts in the second week of the tournament, things may become difficult for the World No. 1, but still, Sabalenka is the one to beat in New York.
Her tie-break ride will go on…but I dont think she will defend her title