Acapulco final preview and prediction: De Minaur vs. Paul

Tommy Paul and Alex de Minaur did it the hard way to battle into Saturday’s championship match at the Abierto Mexicano Telcel.

Paul played the longest match in Acapulco history in Friday’s first semifinal, outlasting fellow American Taylor Fritz 6-3, 6-7(2), 7-6(2) in an absolutely wild affair that lasted three hours and 25 minutes. De Minaur had to wait around for that match to end and then defeated Holger Rune 3-6, 7-5, 6-2 in two hours and 48 minutes, ending right around 3:00 am.

Fortunately for Paul, his first three contests this week (against Emilio Gomez, Michael Mmoh, and Mackenzie McDonald) ended in straight sets. That’s probably why the world No. 23 had just enough in the tank to get past Fritz, as both players were struggling in a big way physically at the end of that thriller.

In the second semifinal it was Rune whose body gave out. That isn’t too surprising, as the 19-year-old Dane has endured such issues in the past whereas De Minaur is one of the fittest players on tour. Those are exactly the kind of matches the 22nd-ranked Australian likes to play. De Minaur preceded that result by beating Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez, Jacopo Berrettini, and Taro Daniel while losing a grand total of eight games at the hands of those three opponents. Despite the late finish to the semis, De Minaur should without question be 100 percent for the title match.

If Paul is less than his best in any way, De Minaur is the last opponent he wants to be facing. After all, the 24-year-old’s defensive skills are some of the best in the world and to say the points won’t be short on Saturday night is a gross understatement.

The experience edge on this stage also goes to De Minaur, who is playing in his 11th ATP final and is 6-4 in those situations so far. This is just Paul’s second ATP final (1-0). The American won’t go down without a fight, but you have to like De Minaur’s chances.

Pick: De Minaur in 3