2023 Nitto ATP Finals preview and predictions

The 2023 ATP season is finally coming to end, but not before one last tournament that is as prestigious as it gets outside of the four Grand Slams. It’s the Nitto ATP Finals, an eight-man showdown that will be played out in Turin, Italy for the third time.

With Novak Djokovic on fire and Carlos Alcaraz struggling this fall, the year-end world No. 1 ranking has been all but decided (Djokovic needs to win just a single match; even if he goes 0-3 in round-robin play, Alcaraz would have to go undefeated on his way to the title). Still, the stakes are sky high not only in the ranking-points department but also in terms prize money and general prestige.

Let’s break down the upcoming festivities as the best eight players in the world come together for the season’s grand finale.

Nitto ATP Finals
Where: Turin, Italy
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 200 for RR win, 400 for SF win, 500 for final win
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic
Prize money:

Alternate	$152,500
Participation Fee	$325,500*
Round-robin match win	$390,000
Semi-final match win	$1,105,000
Final win	$2,201,000
Undefeated champion	$4,801,500

Green Group
Novak Djokovic
Jannik Sinner
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Holger Rune

Red Group
Carlos Alcaraz
Daniil Medvedev
Andrey Rublev
Alexander Zverev

Djokovic is the obvious favorite as a six-time champion of the tournament (including last year) and having not lost a match since the Wimbledon final. Two of the guys in Djokovic’s group (Stefanos Tsitsipas and Holger Rune) have wins over the 24-time slam champion, but right now the biggest threat in the Green Group is the player who is 0-3 lifetime against Djokovic (Jannik Sinner). This particular draw should not seriously trouble the top seed–not that any potential draw would have given him any issues.

That being said, this event sets up great for Sinner. Obviously landing in the same group as Djokovic decreases anyone’s chances for semifinal qualification, but it could actually be favorable in a bid to to go all the way or at least reach the final. After all, nobody in Djokovic’s group can face him in the semis. Moreover, Sinner doesn’t have to go up against the Serb in the first-round robin match so there is a chance Djokovic will have either already qualified for the semis by the time they square off or at least not be in a must-win situation. Finally, the Italian has home-court advantage in Turin and also heads into this tournament playing incredible tennis–including fall-swing titles in Beijing and Vienna.

Alcaraz’s group is where seeds 3 through 8 wanted to find themselves. For Medvedev, Rublev, and Zverev, Thursday’s draw ceremony was kind in that regard. All three of those competitors have a very good chance to advance out of the group stage and qualify for the semifinals. In fact, Alcaraz may be the longshot of the quartet given his recent woes and his history–albeit brief–of wearing down late in the year.

Picks

Green Group
Djokovic over Rune in 2
Sinner over Tsitsipas in 3
Sinner over Djokovic in 3
Tsitsipas over Rune in 3
Djokovic over Tsitsipas in 2
Rune over Sinner in 3

Red Group
Zverev over Alcaraz in 3
Rublev over Medvedev in 3
Zverev over Rublev in 3
Medvedev over Alcaraz in 3
Medvedev over Zverev in 2
Rublev over Alcaraz in 2

Semifinals: (1G) Sinner over (2B) Medvedev in 3, (2G) Djokovic over (1R) Rublev in 2

Final: Djokovic over Sinner in 3