There was a Sunshine Double on the WTA Tour last year, with Iga Swiatek winning both the BNP Paribas Open and the Miami Open, and now there is a very real chance it could happen on the ATP Tour after Carlos Alcaraz triumphed in Indian Wells last weekend. Alcaraz is also the top seed in Miami and the new world No. 1, having surpassed Novak Djokovic on Monday thanks to his 1,000-point haul in the desert.
Of course, Alcaraz will have plenty of challengers in the 305 even though both Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are on the sidelines. Daniil Medvedev has reached four consecutive finals (three titles) and other top contenders like Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz are also in red-hot form.
Here is a breakdown of the bracket and my predictions.
Miami Open
Where: Miami, Florida
Surface: Hard
Points: 1000
Prize money: $8,800,000
Top seed: Carlos Alcaraz
Defending champion: Carlos Alcaraz
Draw analysis: Nineteen opponents in a row took a loss at Medvedev’s hands in February and March, but once the Russian ran into Alcaraz in the Indian Wells final he promptly got crushed 6-3, 6-2. Good news for Medvedev: he once again won’t have to meet Alcaraz until the final. As the No. 4 seed in Miami, the Russian landed in the bottom half of the draw with second-seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. That makes Medvedev a clear favorite to reach a fifth consecutive final.
Medvedev has a mostly favorable draw the whole way, although potential quarterfinal opponent Hubert Hurkacz is a former Miami champion (2021) and has also played Medvedev tough in the past. Hurkacz, however, may have to look out for an in-form Cameron Norrie in the last 16.
Elsewhere in the bottom half of the bracket, either Felix Auger-Aliassime or Indian Wells semifinalist Frances Tiafoe should be able to take advantage of Tsitsipas’ current woes.
In the top half, Alcaraz awaits either Facundo Bagnis or a qualifier and is on a collision course with Andy Murray for the third round. Murray would at least make the 19-year-old Spaniard work for a win, and either Tommy Paul or Alejandro Davidovich Fokina would do the same in round four. Fritz is the likely quarterfinal foe for Alcaraz, so by no means is this an easy road for the world No. 1. In fact, that top quarter of the bracket is the most stacked of all. Meanwhile, in the second section whoever wins a projected fourth-round showdown between Sinner and Andrey Rublev will probably reach at least the semifinals.
First-round matches to watch are Gael Monfils vs. Ugo Humbert, Dominic Thiem vs. Lorenzo Sonego, Mikael Ymer vs. Alexei Popyrin, and Alexander Bublik vs. J.J. Wolf.
Hot: Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, Jannik Sinner, Cameron Norrie, Frances Tiafoe, Tommy Paul, Jiri Lehecka, J.J. Wolf, Yibing Wu, Mackenzie McDonald, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Taro Daniel
Cold: Casper Ruud, Matteo Berrettini, Denis Shapovalov, Diego Schwartzman, Dominic Thiem, Gael Monfils, Oscar Otte, Fabio Fognini, Kyle Edmund
Quarterfinal predictions: Carlos Alcaraz over Taylor Fritz, Jannik Sinner over Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev over Cameron Norrie, and Felix Auger-Aliassime over Karen Khachanov
Semifinals: Sinner over Alcaraz and Medvedev over Auger-Aliassime
Final: Sinner over Medvedev
who ya got?
Sinner should take it 😉
Let Alca prepare for the RG
Alcaraz over Medvedev or Sinner