If everyone–specifically Rafael Nadal–is healthy, the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals should be one of the most entertaining year-end championships in recent memory. It marks the first time since 2015 that three of the Big 4 (or all of the Big 3 if you want to look at it that way) are participating.
Nadal heads to London after an abdominal injury forced him to withdraw from a Paris Masters semifinal against Denis Shapovalov. But there is plenty of good news for the Spaniard; he is now the world No. 1 and therefore the top seed at this event, and he avoided Roger Federer in his round-robin group–which would not be a favorable matchup on an indoor hard court. That’s not to say Group A is easy. Daniil Medvedev has been the hottest player on tour since the start of the summer, Stefanos Tsitsipas owns a 13-5 record this fall, and Alexander Zverev is the defending champion.
“I’m happy about [being talked about as the main challenger to the top players] because my results make people talk in this way,” Medvedev explained. “The most important (thing) is going to be continuing these results, this game that I’m showing, because the moment I drop, people forget good things quite fast. So I know that, and I want to work and improve every day.”
Both Medvedev and Tsitsipas are in stellar form right now and Zverev lifted the London trophy in 2018. Thus it is not going to be easy for Nadal–who has never won the year-end championship–even if he is 100 percent.
Whereas Group A appears to be somewhat up for grabs, Federer and Novak Djokovic are obvious favorites in Group B. The challengers are French Open runner-up Dominic Thiem and U.S. Open semifinalist Matteo Berrettini. Thiem is making his fourth trip to the O2 Arena and seeks his first semifinal qualification, while Berrettini booked a debut London appearance in improbable fashion. The 23-year-old Italian’s career-high ranking was 52nd prior to this season.
“I know that I am not a favorite, but I am very motivated to do well and give it all,” Berrettini commented. “For months I could not even dream of qualifying so I did not give up anything now. I think I am still not fully aware of what I have achieved by qualifying for this tournament.”
Berrettini has struggled since his New York breakthrough and just barely snagged the last London spot when Gael Monfils lost in the Paris quarterfinals. It is Thiem who has the better chance of pulling off an upset, as he is an impressive 7-8 lifetime against Djokovic and Federer combined. Even though the Austrian has improved on hard courts, however, he remains a clear underdog indoors against the two all-time greats.
Group A
Rafael Nadal
Daniil Medvedev
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Alexander Zverev
Group B
Novak Djokovic
Roger Federer
Dominic Thiem
Matteo Berrettini
Round-robin predictions:
Group A
Nadal over Zverev in 2
Medvedev over Tsitsipas in 2
Tsitsipas over Zverev in 3
Medvedev over Nadal in 3
Medvedev over Zverev in 2
Nadal over Tsitsipas in 3
Group B
Djokovic over Berrettini in 2
Federer over Thiem in 2
Thiem over Berrettini in 3
Djokovic over Federer in 2
Federer over Berrettini in 2
Thiem over Djokovic in 3
Semifinals: Federer over Medvedev in 3, Djokovic over Nadal in 2
Final: Djokovic over Federer in 3
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