2018 Nitto ATP Finals preview and predictions

The 2018 Nitto ATP Finals marks the third straight year-end championship in which two of the “Big 4” are participating. In 2016 it was Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray who battled it out for the No. 1 ranking. Last season saw Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal take the court inside the O2 Arena (although Nadal did not last long). This time around, Djokovic and Federer are the top two seeds.

With Nadal having withdrawn due to knee, abdominal, and ankle problems, Djokovic has clinched the No. 1 ranking at the conclusion of 2018. Still, there is plenty of intrigue for London to offer. Federer has not won this event since 2011, but recent developments in Paris suggest the 37-year-old Swiss can be a real threat to Djokovic. He pushed the reigning Wimbledon and U.S. Open champion to a third-set tiebreaker in the semis before Djokovic got upset by Karen Khachanov (the first alternate in London) in the title match. Although the world No. 1 remains an obvious tournament favorite, he suddenly no longer looks quite as invincible as he did while compiling a 31-1 record in the span of 32 matches—a stretch that included a streak of 21 wins in succession.

Moreover, Nitto ATP Finals debutants and Wimbledon semifinalists Kevin Anderson and John Isner could breathe some new life into London. While the two huge hitters will never be confused with being the most exciting players in tennis, they at least have a propensity for playing competitive matches (see their marathon and rules-changing Wimbledon semi, for example). That is something this event has lacked over the past four seasons.

Alexander Zverev, Marin Cilic, Dominic Thiem, and Kei Nishikori round out this year’s field. Nishikori snagged a spot when Juan Martin Del Potro pulled out, which preceded Isner’s replacement of Nadal. The Japanese veteran is a stellar 19-6 dating back to the start of the season, so his chances cannot be discounted even though he has rarely excelled in London. Zverev (0-for-1), Cilic (0-for-3), and Thiem (0-for-2) are a combined 0-for-5 in their bids to emerge from round-robin competition and reach the semifinals at the O2 Arena.

Djokovic and Federer are the obvious favorites based on current form and experience, but also watch out for Anderson and Isner in what seem like two relatively balanced groups on paper.

Group A
Novak Djokovic
Alexander Zverev
Marin Cilic
John Isner

Group B
Roger Federer
Kevin Anderson
Dominic Thiem
Kei Nishikori

Round-robin predictions:

Group A
Djokovic over Isner in 2
Zverev over Cilic in 3
Djokovic over Zverev in 2
Isner over Cilic in 3
Djokovic over Cilic in 3
Isner over Zverev in 3

Group B
Federer over Nishikori in 2
Anderson over Thiem in 3
Anderson over Federer in 3
Thiem over Nishikori in 3
Federer over Thiem in 2
Nishikori over Anderson in 2

Semifinals: Djokovic over Federer in 2, Anderson over Isner in 3

Final: Djokovic over Anderson in 2

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