Congratulations on French Open title No. 11, Rafael Nadal…. Or something like that.
That seems to be the general sentiment in the tennis world following Thursday’s draw ceremony in Paris. Of course, Nadal was already an overwhelming favorite even prior to those festivities. It’s not like he needed a great draw–but a great draw is what he got. If everyone else (or at least the 64 players on the other side of the bracket) is playing for second place, what a battle that could be. Alexander Zverev, Grigor Dimitrov, Dominic Thiem, David Goffin, Kei Nishikori, Novak Djokovic, and Stan Wawrinka all find themselves in the bottom half.
Nadal’s quarter
On paper, Nadal’s eighth of the bracket is riddled with players who have plenty of flair and almost as much talent. Unfortunately that is where the good news ends for said players. First-round opponent Alexandr Dolgopolov is less than 100 percent these days, nearest seed Richard Gasquet is not the Gasquet of old (and he is also 0-15 lifetime against Nadal), Jack Sock is in disastrous form, and Denis Shapovalov is only 19 years old. As usual, week one of the French Open will be a snooze-fest for the 10-time champion.
The only real question in this section, other than who will lose to Nadal in the fourth round, is who will lose to Nadal in the quarterfinals. Sixth-seeded Kevin Anderson has never been at his best on clay and he recently retired from a Rome match due to a thing injury. If Anderson falters, the winner of a first-round contest between Aljaz Bedene and Pablo Cuevas could capitalize. It would also open the door for the likes of Diego Schwartzman, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Borna Coric.
Best first-round matchup – Joao Sousa vs. Guido Pella
Somehow, this is the first-ever head-to-head meeting between Sousa and Pella. Although both men are without question all-court players, it could be especially fun on clay. A five-set, five-hour baseline grind would not be unexpected, as both guys will be willing to trade groundstrokes and stay out there for as long as it takes. Sousa recently captured an emotional title in front of his Portuguese fans in Estoril, while Pella turned in quarterfinal performances on the red clay of Houston and Geneva.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (24) Denis Shapovalov vs. Ryan Harrison
Best potential third-round matchup – (11) Diego Schwartzman vs. (22) Philipp Kohlschreiber
Possible surprises – This is the one quarter in which there is guaranteed to be no surprise semifinalist. But there is a real chance that Nadal could be joined in the fourth round by three unseeded players–and an even better chance that he is joined there by three players outside the top 20. The winner of three first-round matchups in particular could go a long way: Kohlschreiber vs. Coric, Cuevas vs. Bedene, and Ryan Harrison vs. Maximilian Marterer. Of those, the Kohlschreiber-Coric victor will have the best draw and a shot at even the quarterfinals.
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Cilic’s quarter
Cilic landed in Nadal’s half instead of Zverev’s, but other than that he was dealt arguably the luckiest hand in the entire field. The Croat’s toughest possible test through three rounds would come against whoever wins the Adrian Mannarino vs. Steve Johnson first-round match, and that is not exactly anything special. Kyle Edmund could challenge Cilic in the fourth round, but Edmund first has to navigate waters that include Alex de Minaur, Geneva finalist Marton Fucsovics, and 18th-seeded Fabio Fognini. Can Cilic take advantage? Although he is not amazing on clay, the 2014 U.S. Open champ reached the Rome semis and lost to Zverev 7-6(13), 7-5.
Juan Martin Del Potro would be a trendy semifinal pick in this section, but he is once again a question mark due to physical problems (this time a groin injury). If Del Potro cannot bring his best to the table, an already up-for-grabs draw would become even more enticing for John Isner and Tomas Berdych. Isner is dangerous under any circumstances, of course, while Berdych is a former Roland Garros semifinalist.
Best first-round matchup — (18) Fabio Fognini vs. Pablo Andujar
This will be a classic clay-court contest between two veterans who have never faced each other on any other surface. Fognini leads the head-to-head series 3-1, but they have not squared off since the 2015 Barcelona event—where Andujar cruised 6-1, 6-3. Making a comeback from injury, Andujar won the title in Marrakech and reached the Barcelona third round as a qualifier. Fognini made a quarterfinal appearance in Rome and took a set off Nadal, and the Italian warmed up for Roland Garros by reaching the Geneva semis.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (16) Kyle Edmund vs. Marton Fucsovics
Best potential third-round matchup – (9) John Isner vs. (17) Tomas Berdych
Possible surprises — With Del Potro seemingly less than 100 percent, Cilic should take care of business in this section. But the fourth-ranked Croat is not exactly reliable—especially not at the French Open, where has never reached the semifinals and has advanced to the quarters only once (when he got a fourth-round retirement from Anderson last year). Isner or Fognini could capitalize. The former is underrated on clay (2017 Rome semifinalist, once pushed Nadal to five sets at Roland Garros) and the latter’s recent run to the Rome quarterfinals was highlighted by an impressive defeat of Thiem.
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Dimitrov’s quarter
This is where everyone wants to be. It’s on the opposite side from Nadal while also avoiding the Zverev-Thiem-Nishikori-Wawrinka-Tsitsipas Group of Death. In other words: congrats on your draw, Djokovic! Of course, that doesn’t mean it will be easy for the 2016 champion. His sample size of recent success is small, as his semifinal result in Rome was encouraging but also not enough to confirm that he is back to his slam-winning self. Djokovic may have to go up against David Ferrer in round two, Roberto Bautista Agut immediately thereafter, and Dimitrov in the last 16.
The French Open owes Goffin a favor after the Belgian suffered a freak ankle injury early in his 2017 appearance that derailed the rest of his season until a resurgence in the fall. Consider this draw his favor. Goffin’s nearest seed is a rusty Gael Monfils and one of his potential fourth-round foes is an even rustier Nick Kyrgios. Pablo Carreno Busta could present a problem in the last 16, but this does not seem to be the same Carreno Busta who reached the quarterfinals last spring.
Best first-round matchup — Nicolas Jarry vs. Jared Donaldson
Very little in the rankings separates these two up-and-coming stars (Donaldson is No. 57; Jarry is 59th), and the story could be a similar one on the court during first-round French Open action. Donaldson has more experience at this level (42 career ATP match wins compared to his opponent’s 21), but Jarry has an advantage on clay. The 22-year-old Chilean was the breakout star of February’s Golden Swing, with a quarterfinal showing in Quito, a semifinal finish in Rio de Janeiro, and a runner-up performance in Sao Paulo.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (30) Fernando Verdasco vs. Taylor Fritz
Best potential third-round matchup – (13) Roberto Bautista Agut vs. (20) Novak Djokovic
Possible surprises — As a No. 4 seed at a Grand Slam, you’re just about expected to win five matches in the tournament. Dimitrov has won five French Open matches in his entire career. The Bulgarian is also a mere 2-4 in his last six clay-court contests, so it goes without saying that this section is there for the taking. Jarry may be able to have a slam breakout in the form of a third-round or fourth-round appearance, while Verdasco could also be the beneficiary. Watch out, as well, for qualifier Martin Klizan; the outlandish lefty has a friendly draw through two rounds.
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Zverev’s quarter
There is no debate that this is the toughest part of the bracket. That being said, it really isn’t as bad for Zverev as one might think. Having never advanced to a major quarterfinal and having reached a fourth round only once (last summer at Wimbledon), the key for him is week one. And week one should be easy (Ricardas Berankis to begin, Damir Dzumhur as his nearest seed). As long as the German can sink his teeth into the tournament by beating Dusan Lajovic in round two, he will likely settle down and pick up the pace starting in the last 16. That’s where Zverev could face Wawrinka, but the slumping 2015 RG champ will be hard-pressed to make it that far.
It’s at the top where this section is especially loaded. Thiem will likely run into Stefanos Tsitsipas four a mouth-watering second-round matchup, and Tsitsipas just upset the Austrian in Barcelona. The winner could meet Ernests Gulbis in the last 32 and Kei Nishikori for a spot in the quarters. As for Nishikori, Benoit Paire (second round) and either Sam Querrey or Frances Tiafoe (third round) likely stand in his way of the second week.
Best first-round matchup — (15) Lucas Pouille vs. Daniil Medvedev
Pouille has basically been all or nothing in 2018. Before picking up one win in Rome and then losing to Edmund, the Frenchman either reached the final (three times, with one title) or lost his opening match (six times) in nine straight tournaments. It certainly won’t be “all” at Roland Garros, and there is good chance it could be “nothing” because Medvedev is one of the toughest unseeded players in the field. Although the 22-year-old Russian has also struggled on clay, he is still 13-9 this season with a title in Sydney.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (7) Dominic Thiem vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Best potential third-round matchup – (19) Kei Nishikori vs. Frances Tiafoe
Possible surprises — Khachanov advanced to the fourth round last season, ousting Jarry, Berdych, and Isner in the process. The Russian’s draw is much better this time around; in fact, if Wawrinka remains as lackluster as he has been of late, it’s probably the best unseeded draw in the tournament. A fourth-round effort is possible if not even probable for Khachanov, at which point Zverev could be line for another slam letdown. Meanwhile, Gulbis and Tiafoe could do some damage on the other side of this quarter—possibly some serious damage if Thiem and Tsitsipas sap each other’s energy in some kind of epic, five-set second-rounder.
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thoughts?