World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Federer vs. Nishikori

KeiRoger Federer is already through to the World Tour Finals semis regardless of Thursday’s round-robin outcome against Kei Nishikori. For Nishikori, who is 1-1 through two matches, a win is absolutely essential to his tournament hopes.

Roger Federer and Kei Nishikori will be squaring of for sixth time in their careers and for the first time since this same tournament last year when they clash on the final day of round-robin action at the World Tour Finals on Thursday afternoon.

Federer is leading the head-to-head series 3-2 after getting the best of Nishikori 6-3, 6-2 at the O2 in 2014. The 34-year-old Swiss has won two of their three previous hard-court meetings, including two of two indoors. He also prevailed 6-1, 6-3 in front of his home fans in the 2011 Basel final. Nishikori pulled off upsets on the clay courts of Madrid in 2013 and one season later on hards in Miami.

The world No. 8 will have everything to play for in this one, even though he also needs some help from Tomas Berdych later in the day in order to reach the semifinals. Nishikori wins the group if he upsets Federer and Berdych stuns Djokovic.

After getting double-breadsticked 6-1, 6-1 by the world No. 1 on Sunday, Nishikori righted the ship two days later. Japan’s top player held off Berdych 7-5, 3-6, 6-3 to keep his hopes alive. The back-injury concerns and horrendous serving that plagued him against Djokovic were things of the past.

Federer–not Djokovic–has been the class of the tournament so far. The 34-year-old opened by hammering Berdych 6-4, 6-2 before upsetting the 10-time major champion 7-5, 6-2 on Tuesday night. Thus Federer has already clinched a semifinal spot regardless of what transpires on Thursday.
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That will give Federer an opportunity to work on whatever he wants to involving his game, which almost certainly means a handful of SABRs will be on display. The showdown should be more competitive than it looks on paper because Nishikori will be inspired while Federer may be holding just a little bit back. Once it nears the finish line, though, the six-time World Tour Finals champion will be motivated by ranking points, prize money, and quite simply another win.

Pick: Federer in 3

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81 Comments on World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Federer vs. Nishikori

  1. Kei seems to have fitness issues most of the time. Its a 2 hours match and Kei looked so out of breath by the end of it. Its a pity, for he never gave up and fought to the very end but still came out short.

    He has all the skills and great shot making but lacks fitness to go the distance when he has to.

  2. Roger lost focus. But got it done in the end. Court seems to be slow again, from what I gather. When will these people learn….

    • I am glad that I don’t have to listen to this guy Castle! As it is, we have our tennis commentators who do the same thing when it comes to Fed. Some are worse than others. PMac comes to mind! Mary Carillo is not only a shameless Fed worshipper, but she’s also a pure Rafa hater. I cannot bear listening to that woman. Annacone does say great things about Fed, but he also praises Rafa a lot.

      • nny, yes it does get a bit much to say the least!
        are you feeling better now?? i left you some messages a while back asking you but i don’t think you saw them…

  3. maybe Fed and Andy could go for a joint venture marketing scheme … buy the ultimate-stubbler and get a free shear/trimmer kit

    • amy,

      Sorry, but I didn’t see your messages or I would have responded. I would never ignore you! πŸ™‚

      Unfortunately, it’s not that much better. It’s been quite tough. I am not trying to be enigmatic or anything. I just don’t like to say too much here.

      It’s my lower back. An old problem that has now come back but with some new problems. Yesterday was funny because I had to leave for physical therapy in the midst of Rafa’s match. So there I was following the score on my iPhone and I yelled out loud and everyone there heard me! I had to explain that I am a devout tennis fan and was following my favorite player, Rafa! My physical therapist was okay with it, but she did tell me that I had to put away my phone and focus on the therapy.. I just came home and watched the recording without knowing who won.

      I think the best medicine is Rafa winning! πŸ™‚

      • nny, oh dear, i am so sorry. of course i understand that you would not want to write too much here. i left messages because i was worried about you and am sorry that you are not better yet. am glad at least to catch up with you even if things are not as good as they could be.
        rafa winning is a real tonic. i hadn’t seen him play in months so that i was amazed by the change and how good he was yesterday. i really think he is getting back to his best now and could challenge for the AO.
        am so annoyed fed beat nole so that rafa has to play him! i would bet on rafa beating fed…

  4. I dont think the court is slow. The problem for Fed is Kei. Kei played much more aggressive tennis than Novak did, his court position was even more aggressive than Novak’s.

    Fed didnt serve well this match, he probably was more relaxed thinking Kei wasnt as tough an opponent as Novak and was taken by surprise how well Kei played.

    • That’s what I also thought about the match, luckystar. Normally would be bummed that Kei lost – I like his tennis a lot. But Nole needs to be in the semi’s, imo. He’s the perfect foil for Fed and Raf. Could help Rafa if he played Fed in a semi. Is that still possible?

    • Just before the Djokovic encounter, Nadal fans were saying how Djokovic would have the advantage because the court looked slower. :p

      Of course the sudden change in position when it comes to the surface speedcould also be because their guy managed to win the RR. Those posts I’m sure can be easily culled out.

      Anyway, Roger has played some intelligent tennis. Not the best I’ve seen but good in terms of being mentally present barring that set and half versus Nishi.

      • Seems like you’re the one who brought up the court being slow; I dont see anyone else said anything about the court speed during this match. Its an exciting match and both players could hit winners all over the court and the match lasted about 2 hours for a 3 sets match, that means not too many long rallies, no indication that its a slow court.

        It has nothing to do with Rafa winning the RR matches; Rafa used to win RR matches, since 2006 when he started playing at the YEC, when courts were quick at Shanghai; he also won matches at London whether the court there was quick or slow.

      • Lucky doesn’t get it, misses the point and I suspect is arguing for the sake of argument but can believe what she wants (I think that’s everything she’s said about me unless I’ve forgotten something.).

        The WTF court is relatively slow compared to a few years ago and not particularly low bounce.

      • No Ricky, not slow doesnt mean its fast; its just medium pace, not slow and not fast. Its certainly not fast like Dubai but its also not slow like IW/Miami.

        I thought this court is supposed to be like Basel and Paris?

      • Luckystar ( at 6:36 pm),

        Yep, I have repeated this several times:
        The Paris Masters website: €€ The BNP Paribas Masters is played on GreenSet – resin on wood – which is absolutely identical to the surface at the ATP World Tour Finals in London which will be held from 15 – 22 November 2015.€€

      • Everything has to do with Me for I am Lord Majesty, of all that is totally fair and objective here on Tenngrand.

        Now you are intentionally nitpicking. We are talking slow for a hardcourt and slow compared to WTF being historically fast several years ago.

        Paris has been slower the past couple of years too.

    • amy,

      It’s hard to go back and catch up when I miss some of the discussion. I guess that I missed your messages. I guess we could talk about this on the non-tennis forum.

      Yes, it’s for real now. You came back at a good time! Rafa has beaten the #2 and #4 players in the world!

      However, I am in agreement with you in wishing that it would be Rafa and Fed in the semis!

      • Well. Duhh. Obviously. The Court being slow is not okay with anyone that doesn’t enjoy the ping-pong backboards of the Djokovic-Nadal-Murray triumvirate.

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