World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Federer vs. Nishikori

KeiRoger Federer is already through to the World Tour Finals semis regardless of Thursday’s round-robin outcome against Kei Nishikori. For Nishikori, who is 1-1 through two matches, a win is absolutely essential to his tournament hopes.

Roger Federer and Kei Nishikori will be squaring of for sixth time in their careers and for the first time since this same tournament last year when they clash on the final day of round-robin action at the World Tour Finals on Thursday afternoon.

Federer is leading the head-to-head series 3-2 after getting the best of Nishikori 6-3, 6-2 at the O2 in 2014. The 34-year-old Swiss has won two of their three previous hard-court meetings, including two of two indoors. He also prevailed 6-1, 6-3 in front of his home fans in the 2011 Basel final. Nishikori pulled off upsets on the clay courts of Madrid in 2013 and one season later on hards in Miami.

The world No. 8 will have everything to play for in this one, even though he also needs some help from Tomas Berdych later in the day in order to reach the semifinals. Nishikori wins the group if he upsets Federer and Berdych stuns Djokovic.

After getting double-breadsticked 6-1, 6-1 by the world No. 1 on Sunday, Nishikori righted the ship two days later. Japan’s top player held off Berdych 7-5, 3-6, 6-3 to keep his hopes alive. The back-injury concerns and horrendous serving that plagued him against Djokovic were things of the past.

Federer–not Djokovic–has been the class of the tournament so far. The 34-year-old opened by hammering Berdych 6-4, 6-2 before upsetting the 10-time major champion 7-5, 6-2 on Tuesday night. Thus Federer has already clinched a semifinal spot regardless of what transpires on Thursday.
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That will give Federer an opportunity to work on whatever he wants to involving his game, which almost certainly means a handful of SABRs will be on display. The showdown should be more competitive than it looks on paper because Nishikori will be inspired while Federer may be holding just a little bit back. Once it nears the finish line, though, the six-time World Tour Finals champion will be motivated by ranking points, prize money, and quite simply another win.

Pick: Federer in 3

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42 Comments on World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Federer vs. Nishikori

  1. ed,

    You just asked the question I wanted to ask. I just turned on the match and found out what I have been missing. This is really something!

      • It’s not that I’m discrediting Rafa. He was pretty consistent in that match, but Wawa didn’t really test him much. Wawa was pulling the trigger far too early that night.
        When Wawa wants to play, he doesn’t shy away from long rallies. Rather, he embraces it. It was clearly not the scenario that day.

        Rafa played with much more authority against Murray yesterday. Though, he will really need to rep up his serve if he faces Nole in the semi. Nole will not spare such a serving performance.

      • abhirf, as some other people here, sees what he wants to see…

        Wawa was pushed 3m behind the baseline and couldn’t play his game…he is no defender, he can only beat Rafa when Rafa plays crappy defensive tennis…this time around Rafa did not indulge him with it…

        sorry to jump in…couldn’t resist… 🙂

      • @nats,
        Wawa not a defender!
        Are you kidding me?
        Looks like you haven’t really seen him play much then. He does defends a lot when he needs it.
        That’s the interesting facet of his game : the ease with which he generates tremendous power even after standing so far from the baseline.

      • @ abhirf, 5:42

        It’s not only me thinking that…tennis channel commies where saying the same thing…as I said, you see what you want to see…

      • nats, many here don’t put a lot of faith in what commies say about Rafa and Fed but now we are supposed to believe what they say about The Sulker?

        One might say you hear what you want to hear, no? 🙂

        Wawrinka IS a good defender.

        Wawrinka IS a relatively poor indoor player. Worst career record in the Top 8 at just over 50%.

        Majesty says abhirf is right.

      • @ hawkee 6:18 pm,

        weren’t you the one saying those commies, i.e. so called experts must be trusted? You quoted a lot of them…why the shift now? The Majesty will lose the title soon if continuing this way…

        Wawa is good as long as he can position himself for attacking tennis…if he is pushed behind the baseline with heavy top spins he is done and dusted…ask Rafa about it… 🙂

    • abhirf,

      Oh I agree absolutely about Rafa! I think he played very well and also smart in that match. That wasn’t Stan even close to his best and the stats bear that out. I think you are correct about Stan pulling the trigger too early, but I also believe that at times he seemed to mentally check out in that match.

      Rafa did play so much better against Murray. Great stuff from Rafa in that one! I don’t think there is any disagreement about Rafa’s serve. That’s going to have to improve if he wants to beat Novak. He’s got too good of a ROS, putting so much pressure on his opponents.

  2. I repeat my earlier posting…

    This is the only way that Fed won’t top the group.

    Regardless of score, if T. BERDYCH defeats N. DJOKOVIC and K. NISHIKORI defeats R. FEDERER, then K. NISHIKORI wins the group and R. FEDERER qualifies 2nd.

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