World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Berdych

Novak Djokovic may have to take at least one set or even win the match in order to reach the semis when he goes up against Tomas Berdych at the World Tour Finals on Thursday. Djokovic is trying to bounce back from a round-robin loss to Roger Federer.

Regardless of what happens in Thursday afternoon’s match between Roger Federer and Kei Nishikori, Novak Djokovic will not have clinched a spot in the World Tour Finals semis when he takes the court for the nightcap against Tomas Berdych.

Djokovic put his London campaign in unexpected doubt by losing to Federer 7-5, 6-2 on Tuesday. If Nishikori beats Federer, Djokovic must beat Berdych. Should Federer defeat Nishikori, the world No. 1 only has to take one set against the Czech. As for Berdych, he will already be eliminated if Nishikori wins.

This will be the 23rd meeting between the two players, with Djokovic dominating the head-to-head series 20-1. Berdych has never defeated the Serb on hard courts in 17 tries, as his lone victories came at Wimbledon in 2010 and on the clay courts of Rome in 2013. Djokovic’s 17-0 mark on hard courts includes eight indoor wins and four at the O2. He is 8-1 in total sets against Berdych at this event, although a 2011 round-robin showdown ended with a 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(3) scoreline.

Berdych also managed to be competitive two weeks ago in Paris, where he never dropped serve en route to a 7-6(3), 7-6(8) setback.

Djokovic’s loss to Federer kept Berdych mathematically alive in Group Stan Smith, but it also means the top seed will be eager to make amends for that performance in what could be a must-win situation. Despite the recent setback, Djokovic is still an amazing 79-6 for the season. Tuesday marked just the second time in 2015 that he has lost prior to a final (vs. Ivo Karlovic in Doha).

Although Berdych is one of the most powerful players on tour, even he is struggling to hit through this court. He played particularly well against Djokovic in Paris, still lost in straight sets, and has not yet found the same level in London. The world No. 6 kicked off his campaign with a 6-4, 6-2 loss to Federer and a similar scoreline should be expected in this one.

Pick: Djokovic in 2 losing 7 games or fewer

[polldaddy poll=9185609]