World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Federer vs. Nishikori

KeiRoger Federer is already through to the World Tour Finals semis regardless of Thursday’s round-robin outcome against Kei Nishikori. For Nishikori, who is 1-1 through two matches, a win is absolutely essential to his tournament hopes.

Roger Federer and Kei Nishikori will be squaring of for sixth time in their careers and for the first time since this same tournament last year when they clash on the final day of round-robin action at the World Tour Finals on Thursday afternoon.

Federer is leading the head-to-head series 3-2 after getting the best of Nishikori 6-3, 6-2 at the O2 in 2014. The 34-year-old Swiss has won two of their three previous hard-court meetings, including two of two indoors. He also prevailed 6-1, 6-3 in front of his home fans in the 2011 Basel final. Nishikori pulled off upsets on the clay courts of Madrid in 2013 and one season later on hards in Miami.

The world No. 8 will have everything to play for in this one, even though he also needs some help from Tomas Berdych later in the day in order to reach the semifinals. Nishikori wins the group if he upsets Federer and Berdych stuns Djokovic.

After getting double-breadsticked 6-1, 6-1 by the world No. 1 on Sunday, Nishikori righted the ship two days later. Japan’s top player held off Berdych 7-5, 3-6, 6-3 to keep his hopes alive. The back-injury concerns and horrendous serving that plagued him against Djokovic were things of the past.

Federer–not Djokovic–has been the class of the tournament so far. The 34-year-old opened by hammering Berdych 6-4, 6-2 before upsetting the 10-time major champion 7-5, 6-2 on Tuesday night. Thus Federer has already clinched a semifinal spot regardless of what transpires on Thursday.
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That will give Federer an opportunity to work on whatever he wants to involving his game, which almost certainly means a handful of SABRs will be on display. The showdown should be more competitive than it looks on paper because Nishikori will be inspired while Federer may be holding just a little bit back. Once it nears the finish line, though, the six-time World Tour Finals champion will be motivated by ranking points, prize money, and quite simply another win.

Pick: Federer in 3

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6 Comments on World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Federer vs. Nishikori

  1. racket swing โ€@racket_swing 17m17 minutes ago
    RT SkySportsTennis “There’s still time to get your questions in for ATP Chairman, Chris Kermode.
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  2. Still think the RR format is a good one for the WTF. Sometimes you do get a dead rubber for the last day of RR. But Singapore WTA final this year is a fine example that each round can be interesting, right down to the end.

    The anti-climactic part of any tournament or draw (imo) can be the pointy end. But casual fans, fans of primarily one player or those uninterested in a variety of players and match-ups during early rounds will lose interest or be disappointed if their favorite bombs out. In RR format, the dullest part for me is when players qualify early. Though I want Nole in the semi’s and final here, I do rather enjoy the days when there’s more tension: that’s where the excitement mainly is. The same is true at a GS, 1000, 500, even a 250. If my main favorite is out, I don’t quit watching, unless it’s clear that the ones left in are ones who have a truckload (upwards of 5, even for a favorite, is past my personal limit) of wins at any tournament, having been around longer than mud, or winning for a decade straight at the same tournament. Not that I don’t like and respect these icons, it’s just I appreciate new competition and winners. Not everyone shares this opinion, that’s for sure! Not trying to change anyone’s opinion or tout mine as a gold standard, just stating the way I watch and feel about RR format and tennis tournaments in general.
    How many of these WTF’s does Fed have?

    I’d rather pay for a day pass and hang-out at serious practice sessions during a tournament than have a ticket in hand for an exhibition. Watching Rafa practice forehands — Ferrer and Rafa going at it for hours, is fun! Part of it is getting more for my money, have to admit.

    It would be nice if Ferrer won this match. Rafa has nothing to lose, except a couple hundred points. Rafa may be a little preoccupied on the semi’s already.

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