Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Djokovic

Ten years later, there will be no final rematch of the 2008 Wimbledon epic between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. But the All-England Club faithful will be treated to a different historic rivalry two days earlier–Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic in the semis.

The two all-time greats are set to face each other for a hard-to-believe 52nd time in their careers on Friday, with Djokovic holding a lead so slim (26-25) that it will be all tied if he loses this one. Nadal had dropped seven in a row and 11 of their last 12 meetings before taking their two most recent encounters, also in semifinal showdowns (6-2, 6-4 last spring in Madrid and 7-6(4), 6-3 a couple of months ago in Rome). They have not collided on grass since the 2011 Wimbledon title match, which Djokovic won 6-4, 6-1, 1-6, 6-3.

Surprisingly, Nadal had not been back to even the quarterfinals of this tournament since that 2011 result. But it has all turned around for the world No. 1 this fortnight, with straight-set romps over Dudi Sela, Mikhail Kukushkin, Alex De Minaur, and Jiri Vesely prior to an epic 7-5, 6-7(7), 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 defeat of Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarterfinals. Nadal is now an awesome 35-2 this season and 31-1 in his last 32 matches since retiring against Marin Cilic in the Australian Open quarters.

“Anything could have happened (against Del Potro), so this is a big achievement for me to get to the semifinals at Wimbledon,” the Spaniard said following Wednesday’s thriller. “In the last set there was a little of everything: great points, great rallies, he was hitting crazy with his forehands. I tried to resist and maintain focus.

“Now is the moment to enjoy and then start to recover, as it was a tough physical battle. [Djokovic] is one of the toughest opponents. I am just excited to be in the semis.”

While Nadal has finally found greener pastures at Wimbledon following years of SW19 frustration, Djokovic’s all-around game appears to be back in business for the first time in a year. Physical problems derailed the second half of 2017 and the first half of 2018 for him, but the Djokovic of old has returned. The 21st-ranked Serb picked up some momentum on clay and has only improved on grass, with a runner-up performance at Queen’s Club and wins this fortnight over Tennys Sandgren, Horacio Zeballos, Kyle Edmund, Karen Khachanov, and Kei Nishikori. Djokovic is 17-3 in his last 20 matches since being saddled with a 6-6 mark through his first 12 of the year.

“I feel (that) if I have to compare the game that I’ve played, the level of tennis that I’ve had those years and today, I think it’s pretty close,” Djokovic assessed after beating Nishikori 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 6-2 on Wednesday. “I like the level of tennis that I’m playing right now; I really do. I think with the performances I’ve had, I deserve to be in the semifinals. I don’t want to stop here. I hope I can get a chance to fight for a trophy.”

While this Djokovic is something different than what was on display from January through April, his sample size of success remains small. The 12-time major champion owns just a single top-10 win since Rome last spring, and that has come at the expense of a slumping Grigor Dimitrov in the Queen’s Club second round. Toppling Nadal in the Wimbledon semifinals is a whole different beast of a task.

Nadal has quite simply been the best player this entire year and the best player throughout this tournament. Although it obviously isn’t clay, conditions are suiting him well this fortnight. If more of the same continues and he produces a similar level to what Del Potro saw on the other side of the net, the 32-year-old should advance to his sixth Wimbledon final.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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37 Comments on Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Djokovic

  1. Good luck Rafa!! Hope its a good match, we are rooting for you!! We know you will do your best! Stay sharp, no dfs on set/match point plz. lol!!

    Vamos, Rafa!!

  2. Hope Rafa will win…Hope too that aggressive Rafa who would turned up today…Otherwise,i will go to Wimby myself & kick your a@$ hard with my slippers!U hear Rafa??..And look at me!Talking to myself like a mad cow!!…Hehehe…Woohoo!!Vamos Rafa!!

      • Hey amy!..Hey Sanju!…I SWEAR!!U GUYS R AWESOME!!!!…Never before someone asked me how i feel xcept u guys!!!Ohohohohhoho!!…U GUYS R UNBELIEVABLE!!..And i’m just a stranger for u guys!!…Would u guys be my virtual brother & sister???I sure want one!!Hahahaha…

        Btw…I feel much better this evening…After Rafa win yesterday,i felt so sad & disappointed even tho the match itself was the most amazing match we’ve ever seen from Rafa at Wimby in a long time…But,at the same time,feel like a trophy slipping a little bit far away from Rafa & us…And knowing that this year is his best chance to get his 3rd…Anyway…hope to God that Rafa will win today…Please!please!please God!!…Grant our wishes!Amin!!…

      • By “them”, I mean Rafole.

        Cheers to the Rafa fans…all of them and I mean it!
        I won’t be posting or watching — taking a long weekend away.

        Go Angie!

        MA and Amy, love you both.
        Be strong amy and hope you are well.

        • Hey RC….U be careful when u rafting okay?No repeat of last year…U should bring Mr RC too…in case something happen…

    • Hey Sanju!…Thank u for your concern!!…I really appreciate it bro!…I’m okay Sanju!!…U??U don’t be nervous okay?Here’s my virtual arm for u to hold & break if need it!Hehe…

      It’s going to be rain today??Oh no!!…Hope Rafa would not be nervous much!

  3. Thanks darling!
    Am sick today!! Can’t go march!😢
    Have a lovely weekend
    !
    PS am I actually allergic to the fascist moron!??

  4. So there are 2 main reason why I believe Rafa should win today. It obviously helps Novak that he has won the last 7 matches they have played off of clay, and that Rafa hasn’t beaten Novak on a non-clay surface since US Open 2013. HOWEVER, after the first 7 match losing to Novak, Rafa turned it around with a couple of clay court wins in 2012. And what happened after those clay wins? He went on to have success again off of clay against Novak. I think that Rafa just getting a couple wins off of Novak on any surface/condition was precisely what he needed to end the mental block he had against Novak.

    And I see the same thing happening after the most recent 7-match losing streak. Rafa has won their past two matches, and I don’t believe it matters that they were on clay and today’s match is on grass. I believe that those two most recent wins have served to end, or at very least lessen, his mental Novak-block. So that is one reason I think Rafa will have an edge today- he’s won their last 2 matches, so he’s got that “mental momentum”, if you will.

    The other reason is very simple- Novak is just not the insane force he once was. I don’t even see two-thirds of the guy he used to be! Sure, he’s made big steps compared to where he was a few months ago. But those steps just haven’t been big enough if he wants to be the same player he was just a couple years ago. Surely a big part of Novak’s collapse and subsequent inability to regain dominance is his injury issues. But the reasons are irrelevant to this argument. Whatever the reasons are, there is just no denying that he is still a relative shell of himself from a couple years back.

    On the flip side, Rafa is playing much better than he was a couple years ago when Novak was killing it. As Ricky mentioned, if we include this Wimbledon fortnight, Rafa has arguably been the best player so far this year. Novak has not even been close to Rafa’s level. Rafa is just playing better tennis than Novak, period. So that’s another big reason why I believe Rafa should win this match (and the title).

    Please don’t get me wrong- I am NOT saying that Novak CANNOT win this match/title!! People on here too often think that when someone predicts that a player will lose, then that must mean they think that player CAN’T win. And that is ridiculous… Novak has won this tournament 3 times in the previous 7 years. He also has had Rafa’s number for the large part of the last 8 season’s. To say that he can’t beat Rafa is just false. Not to mention that he did win the one time they played at Wimbledon.

    Rafa is not the overwhelming favorite. But there is no doubt in my mind that Rafa is the SOLID favorite over Novak today, and is the solid favorite to win the title.

  5. Djoko serves and returns well and scrambling around the court doing unbelievable retrieving, he’s playing well at the moment.

  6. Rafa has to serve very well because Djoko is returning very well at the moment. Djoko holding serve a bit more easily than Rafa does.

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