Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Djokovic

Ten years later, there will be no final rematch of the 2008 Wimbledon epic between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. But the All-England Club faithful will be treated to a different historic rivalry two days earlier–Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic in the semis.

The two all-time greats are set to face each other for a hard-to-believe 52nd time in their careers on Friday, with Djokovic holding a lead so slim (26-25) that it will be all tied if he loses this one. Nadal had dropped seven in a row and 11 of their last 12 meetings before taking their two most recent encounters, also in semifinal showdowns (6-2, 6-4 last spring in Madrid and 7-6(4), 6-3 a couple of months ago in Rome). They have not collided on grass since the 2011 Wimbledon title match, which Djokovic won 6-4, 6-1, 1-6, 6-3.

Surprisingly, Nadal had not been back to even the quarterfinals of this tournament since that 2011 result. But it has all turned around for the world No. 1 this fortnight, with straight-set romps over Dudi Sela, Mikhail Kukushkin, Alex De Minaur, and Jiri Vesely prior to an epic 7-5, 6-7(7), 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 defeat of Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarterfinals. Nadal is now an awesome 35-2 this season and 31-1 in his last 32 matches since retiring against Marin Cilic in the Australian Open quarters.

“Anything could have happened (against Del Potro), so this is a big achievement for me to get to the semifinals at Wimbledon,” the Spaniard said following Wednesday’s thriller. “In the last set there was a little of everything: great points, great rallies, he was hitting crazy with his forehands. I tried to resist and maintain focus.

“Now is the moment to enjoy and then start to recover, as it was a tough physical battle. [Djokovic] is one of the toughest opponents. I am just excited to be in the semis.”

While Nadal has finally found greener pastures at Wimbledon following years of SW19 frustration, Djokovic’s all-around game appears to be back in business for the first time in a year. Physical problems derailed the second half of 2017 and the first half of 2018 for him, but the Djokovic of old has returned. The 21st-ranked Serb picked up some momentum on clay and has only improved on grass, with a runner-up performance at Queen’s Club and wins this fortnight over Tennys Sandgren, Horacio Zeballos, Kyle Edmund, Karen Khachanov, and Kei Nishikori. Djokovic is 17-3 in his last 20 matches since being saddled with a 6-6 mark through his first 12 of the year.

“I feel (that) if I have to compare the game that I’ve played, the level of tennis that I’ve had those years and today, I think it’s pretty close,” Djokovic assessed after beating Nishikori 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 6-2 on Wednesday. “I like the level of tennis that I’m playing right now; I really do. I think with the performances I’ve had, I deserve to be in the semifinals. I don’t want to stop here. I hope I can get a chance to fight for a trophy.”

While this Djokovic is something different than what was on display from January through April, his sample size of success remains small. The 12-time major champion owns just a single top-10 win since Rome last spring, and that has come at the expense of a slumping Grigor Dimitrov in the Queen’s Club second round. Toppling Nadal in the Wimbledon semifinals is a whole different beast of a task.

Nadal has quite simply been the best player this entire year and the best player throughout this tournament. Although it obviously isn’t clay, conditions are suiting him well this fortnight. If more of the same continues and he produces a similar level to what Del Potro saw on the other side of the net, the 32-year-old should advance to his sixth Wimbledon final.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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66 Comments on Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Djokovic

  1. Nadal over Djokovic in 4. Rafa is just too good this year, only lost 2 matches (one by retirement) and is on a 17 match winning streak. However, if the final is against Isner, that will be VERY tricky

    • Has he ever lost to Isner? At the end of the day, the guy’s only a servebot. Anderson is less of a servebot, but not that strong mentally. Plus if it’s Anderson v Nadal in the final, Kev will surely have that US Open rout in the back of his mind. Just because of that I think he’s a better chance against Djokovic.

        • Sure, and he’s certainly no walkover on grass, but how many times has he beaten them vs lost?

          Being a servebot doesn’t mean you can’t get the occasional win against good players, because you can. It just means that your game is pretty one-dimensional and that you generally lose those encounters because of it.

        • Yes, Sanju, you are right. The big servers always have a chance on a good day for them and a mediocre day for their opponents. Isner has rarely beaten one of the Big Four, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. Ithink, it’s arrogant to believe that Isner/Anderson have no chance against Rafa or Novak. Roger is Exibit A. And lately Isner has been almost as successful as Anderson. Unlike Anderson he actually won a Masters, although he has never been very successful at the slams.
          I think it’s premature to believe that the match Rafa vs Novak is the true final. Isner and Anderson are in grass way more dangerous than Ferrer on clay.

        • Sanju i left you a post earlier to the one you addressed to me earlier up the thread. Just in case you didn’t see it!!😀

          • yes amy i read it. i just hope rafa wins tomorrow ..will chat after he wins..till then nerves 🙂

      • In Miami, Isner was cracking both his forehand and his backhand. People don’t realize this about John, but when’s confident and at his best, he has absolutely thunderous groundstrokes. Plus his volleys are constantly improving, and he was serve and volleying a lot against Tsitsipas and Raonic, and it was working a lot. In fact, he hit a diving backhand volley to save set point in the second set tiebreak against Raonic!!

      • Anyone who watched Anderson beat Fed couldn’t say that he’s just a serve bot. He has a massive serve, sure, but he had a lot more to his game than that. He often controlled the rallies from the baseline, he moved better than I ever thought a guy 6’8” could move, and even his BH was pretty strong.

        I think the point a few people are making is that both Anderson and Isner have improved a lot in the last couple of years. And Anderson has gotten a lot stronger mentally; the match against Fed will have done wonders for his confidence.

  2. Olly July 12, 2018 at 10:21 AM

    ‘if the final is against Isner, that will be VERY tricky’

    Especially if it’s Anderson who gets into the final

  3. oh, sorry, I hand’t read your post properly… you wrote ‘if’ the final is against Isner…. my bad… was trying to be cheeky

  4. Not exactly a clever idea by isner to invite twitler to come watch him! Most brits think that twitler is an idiot/insane/revolting/a conman/an absolute joke/completely corrupt/a raving narcissist/a sex pest/a threat to the planet/ a warmonger/someone who makes you want to vomit…
    He’s not exactly going to endear himself to the crowd is he??

    • That’s why I hope that Anderson will make the final!
      I read somewhere though, that The Donald ist one of the greatest Rafafans, lol! Oh, well, you can’t chose all of your fans. But if there will be a final Nadal/Isner – could that mean, someone will get into his presidential plane and head for London??

        • I don’t quite understand your question, Amy.
          But if I haven’t expressed myself clearly – I’m on the same page with you re: The Donald. I truly Hope He will decline Isner’s invitation. But since The Donald ist a self proclaimed Rafafan, I thought, that a final Isner/Nadal might tempting him to come. It would be a pairing where The Donald cannot lose. And that’s the kind of Position he likes 😮

        • Sorry littlefoot! I thought maybe you were suggesting he wouldn’t come but someone would come in his place!?
          I think the security issues would be absolutely monumental in terms of twitler coming. And it absolutely wouldn’t be good pr for him if wimby is surrounded by massive crowds of protesters – as it would be -and if he was heckled by the crowd. There will be some horrible brexiteers there who would cheer him but london is a cosmopolitan Remain vote stronghold and there would definitely be a lot of people who would boo and heckle him.
          Am praying Anderson wins!!!

          • Just seen footage of the fascist moron arriving here…ugh! And ugh to melania as well. Just sod off you pair of cheap spineless grifters!
            The only place you truly belong and which would welcome having you is a jail!!
            Rant over!
            PS fascists are marching in London tomorrow holding trump posters! They know what he stands for!

          • He had better not ricky!
            I don’t see how he could as the protesters would block the streets so how could anyone actually get in to watch!!!

          • Amy, I was totally disconnected from the background of this discussion. Trump is there of course. And I do know that he is a tennis fan, and he has had contact with tennis players before. I remember that he has contact with Monica Seles. There we’re even rumors about a short affair. I understand Isner a bit better now. I truly wonder now if Trump will go to the final if Isner will play. And as I said before Trump is a great Rafafan – which isn’t Rafa’s fault of course. But sometimes I do wish that Rafa would pull a Kyrgios, lol! But that’s of course not Rafa’s style.
            I really hope that Trump stays away from Wimby! 😣

          • I’m with you, Hawks. I would be really annoyed if Isn’tner managed to win Wimbledon. Especially if our scumbag President were there cheering him on.

            Kevin Anderson may possibly be hardest guy to root against of all-time haha. He’s just so nice. And his wife is so cool, too. I would love to see him give Isn’tner the biggest slaughtering ever.

          • I agree, Kevin.
            I would also hate if Trump would go to a Rafa/Isner final, and Trump would cheer for Rafa if he wins!
            Anderson simply has to beat Isner! Someone should tell him that this isn’t just about tennis anymore, lol! I do know that Anderson is politically interested and active. So, he certain would listen ☺

        • Amy,

          I am sorry that your country has to be invaded by the fascist moron. I am just so embarrassed for my country to have this lying thug representing us. He has insulted our allies and cozied up to the likes of Putin and Kim Jong Un and other tyrants and dictators. He is a traitor to his country and belongs behind bars.

          I hope that the British people will protest long and loud to let him know what they think of him.

          • Nny Actually today has brought it home to me how dreadful it must be for the Americans who detest him! Having him on our soil makes me want to vomit! Yet you have to put up with him every day! It must be torture!
            Solidarity!!!

          • Nny and Kevin
            I really want to write more to you but I am feeling quite unwell today…think I need to try and lie down to rest up for tomorrow!
            F*** trump!!

          • Pss nny I am a member of Stop Trump who are organising the mass protests! A lot of people will come out although quite disturbingly the government has leant on the police to curtail certain legal methods of assembly which has never happened before. A sign of the moral decay which is taking place here as a result of brexit.😡😡

          • NNY, thank you for recognizing us! It’s importsnt for everyone around the world to remember that the MAJORITY of the United States does NOT support Trump! Even if you just look at the people who voted in the election, it is a fact that more people voted for NOT Trump than for him. Our electoral system does not use the actual votes like they should. If it did, Donald Trump would not be President because less people voted for him than Hillary Clinton. I’m not saying that Hillary Clinton would have been a good President herself, but we at least wouldn’t have this hateful scumbag in office.

  5. Anderson just 3-8 career vs Gods Country Trump fan good ol’ boy Isner.

    Add to that a predictable let down and some fatigue makes another win a “tall” order.

    Advantage boring Isner FTW in four tiebreaks.

    Yawn

  6. I know this has been said many times before but one marvels at the longevity of the big 4 and it will be a sad day when they all walk off into the sunset. Andy Murray is already being groomed as a future commentator (hence his stint alongside the regulars at Wimby this year)and has his finger in a number of different pies; Rafa has his academy and his fishing ; Djokovic has a career in politics mapped out; Federer will surely be appointed the official Ambassador for tennis and earn ever more mind-boggling sums of money.

    Meanwhile I thank my lucky stars to have been around to witness this amazing epoch in tennis.

  7. It’s not one bit crazier than your own predictions – which haven’t been very successful for quite a while, lol! The truth is that these semis are very hard to predict, since so many uncertain parameters come into play quite literally. We are not at the French Open where it’s not hard to predict the eventual winner. This year all tennis experts have been 100% correct with their predictions. Even Steve Tignor, whose well documented curse normally dooms a player before he even hits a ball, got it right 😉
    But this year’s Wimby turned out to be tricky, although you have to be definitely over thirty in order to have a chance. This goes for the women as well btw. The last youngster has been ruthlessly eliminated today.

  8. It is so comical how you all turn this forum into something political. Do you seriously have something against Isner other than his political beliefs?? Or you just dislike him because of who he voted for? Btw, Kevin Anderson is a permanent United States resident (as is his “cool” wife)… How is it known that he did not vote for Trump other than the fact he has not said it pubicly?? Very interested in the responses to come………..

      • And considering that Anderson is an ardent enviromentalist, it’s highly unlikely that he would’ve voted for Trump if he could’ve voted.

    • Cb23, Previously I had nothing whatsoever against Isner except that I intensely dislike his way to play tennis – although I don’t hold it against him personally, since he just tries to be as successful as he can. But now I hate his political leanings, and I do hold this against him personally. It’s not so much how he voted. Many have voted for Trump and regret it now. We all make mistakes. But Trump turned out to be even worse than expected, and Isner still publicly supports this moron. Even Mr. Sandgren retracted publicly some of his more controversial opinions. Isner however even would like to give Trump a platform to show himself at a popular event! And that’s reason enough for me to hope sincerely that Isner will lose against Anderson and not win the trophy. It may happen nevertheless, though. Our preferences don’t influence the outcome of matches…

  9. Never actually made my pick. This is a tough one to call. I’m gonna go with Djokovic in 5 (slightly rooting for Nadal though)

  10. From the little I’ve seen of Djokovic in this tournament, I’d say this. His serve, movement, and BH look near what they were at their best. His FH does not; it’s consistent enough but lacks punch, which will give Nadal an extra chance at some balls that previously would have been winners. Nadal, in contrast, is more aggressive than he’s been in the past, but somewhat less consistent on this surface. Long rallies will favour Djokovic.

    Given that I would say peak (2014-15) Djokovic beats 2018 Nadal on grass pretty handily, I think the current version has just enough to win. Novak in 5.

    • We’ll see! I’ll say Rafa in four! This Djoko needed four sets to put away a relatively easier opponent when he should be doing so in three sets. I doubt Rafa would let this slip away from him, unless he’s overcome by nerves! I trust that he’ll come out with the right strategy instead of playing grinding tennis.

      I’ll even say that the 2014 Djoko might be on par with this Rafa; the 2015 version might be better but still not as great as the 2008 version of Rafa on this surface (that version of Rafa moved like snake on grass and was almost perfect with all his shots though still not as varied as himself of 2018). I mean who could almost put Fed away in straight sets at Wimbledon if not for the rain?

  11. I’m no tennis expert but from an armchair point of view, the last thing Rafa should do is allow Djokovic to settle on the baseline where he can hit the balls to his heart’s content till the cows come home. Rafa needs to be offensive and not play the Ping-Pong King’s game.

      • I agree, Novak’s best surface ist clearly hardcourt, although it came to pass that he was -so far – a bit more successful on grass than Rafa. But there were times when grass was considered to be Novak’s worst and Rafa’s second best surfrace, lol! That’s the true! And being more successful on grass doesn’t necessarily translate into being the better player on grass. The margins are too narrow for making such a claim with any confidence. Their head-to-head on grass ist 2:1 for Rafa, and he also has two more final appearances at Wimby. But all this doesn’t count today because both have changed considerably during the last few years. Recent successes for Rafa and Novak’s lack of any recent notable wins over top ten players clearly have the momentum on Rafa’s side. And I think, Ricky partly based his prediction on that. However, the fact that Rafa had a gruelling quarterfinal and that he might still have to face some remnant demons in matches against the Djoker might favor Novak. As a Rafafan I will close my eyes and hope for the best ☺

        • Littlefoot, as far as I understand you came much earlier than me on this forum. People here used to mention you sometime. I just want to say you bring a good, healthy balance to this place. You are one of those real Rafafans, who tries to analyse things as objectively as possible from that position. And also one of those tennis fans who know that a Fedfan&Rafafan can be friends. It has nothing to do with them (players) anyway. It’s about understanding that tennis is amazing, but life is more than tennis and not taking things personally.

  12. Rafa needs to win the first set here. Djoker serve improves when he is in the lead. Serve speed and accuracy just goes way up.

    Rafa need not woory about Djoker BTL shot. That is one shot which is not at all working for him. Rafa can continue to leave door open and let Djoker try it out. But Rafa can surprise Djoker with FH DTL . So Djoker is much more handicapped and his FH DTL is also not great.

    • I’m not sure about that. Novak’s tactics for the last few years have been to test Nadal’s lateral movement to his FH. In the match against Nishikori, Djokovic was getting great angles on the cross-court BH. That’s the shot that I think will cause Rafa trouble.

      OTOH, Nadal has to hit his inside out FH at every opportunity, and make Novak try to hit the DTL FH. Two years ago I think Novak would return that shot with a sharply angled FH, but this is where I think his wrist lacks the strength to do that effectively. Basically, the more Nadal can hit to the Djokovic FH, the better.

  13. Not going to predict anything. Hard to call. Hope the best wins and the best player at this tournament wins the whole thing.

    • The thing ist that we haven’t really enough recent data for making a well founded prediction for the Rafa/Nole match. Their last match on grass was seven years ago and took place 2011, when Novak was virtually invincible, and Rafa was on a long losing streak against Novak . But when have the two last met on another surface than clay? Was it at the WTF final 2013? While Novak won that indoor match easily, Rafa in general had shaken the hold Novak had over him for so long. Anyway, this was a long time ago,and both players changed considerably since then. Therefore it’s very hard to predict what will happen today. I do suspect, though, that Novak is still lodged into Rafa’s head to a certain degree. But Novak might’ve to fight demons of his own.
      Let’s just say that as a Rafafan I’m still extremely weary of that match up. There’s a lot at stake for both, since such a good shot at the Wimby trophy might not offer itself again: the old maestro gone (although Rafa as well as Novak might’ve won a hypothetical final against Fed, since he wasn’t at his very best this year), and the young guns still not ready for taking over. Neither Rafa nor Novak are that young anymore. Eventually being over thirty might cease to be a requirement for winning a slam, lol!

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