Wimbledon final preview and prediction: Murray vs. Raonic

For the first time since 2002, the Wimbledon singles final will be without Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, or Novak Djokovic. Instead, Andy Murray will battle first-time Grand Slam finalist Milos Raonic for the title on Sunday. Raonic has survived five-setters in two of his last three matches.

Andy Murray and Milos Raonic will be squaring off for the 10th time in their careers and for the fourth time this season when they battle for the Wimbledon title on Sunday afternoon.

Murray is leading the head-to-head series 6-3 after once trailing it 3-1. The Scot’s five-match winning streak at Raonic’s expense includes a flawless 3-0 mark in 2016. Murray prevailed 4-6, 7-5, 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-2 in the Australian Open semifinals, 6-2, 6-0 on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo, and 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-3 in the recent Queen’s Club championship match. Their first-ever grass-court meeting saw Raonic lead by a set and a break only squander all of his advantage by losing four of his last eight service games.

“I got sucked into his game,” the Canadian said of their Queen’s Club contest. “I didn’t play on my terms.”

“I don’t know what that means,” Murray responded when told of Raonic’s assessment. “I don’t know what I was doing to suck him into my style of play. I don’t know. I generally don’t know what it is I do.”

What Murray generally does is win, and that is exactly what he has been doing ever since losing last month’s French Open final to Novak Djokovic. The two-time major champion is a perfect 11-0 on grass with victories this fortnight over Liam Broady, Yen-Hsun Lu, John Millman, Nick Kyrgios, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Tomas Berdych. Tsonga pushed Murray to five sets after dropping the first two, but Murray’s other five outings en route to Sunday were straight-set beatdowns.
Murray2
Raonic, meanwhile, has required two five-setters along the way. The world No. 7 even trailed David Goffin by two sets to love during fourth-round action on Monday but roared back to get the job done 4-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. Roger Federer had Raonic on the ropes to an even greater extent in Friday’s first semifinal, but the underdog staved off a handful of seemingly virtual match points before triumphing 6-3, 6-7(3), 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 in three hours and 25 minutes. Raonic’s trek through the All-England Club also includes routine wins over Pablo Carreno Busta, Andreas Seppi, Jack Sock, and Sam Querrey.

“Milos is a very tough opponent,” Murray assured. “He’s played very well on the grass this year and has earned his right to the final by beating one of the best, if not the best player ever, at this event. So he deserves to be there.”

“Andy is one of the premier workaholics, let’s say,” Raonic noted. “He’s given himself a lot of opportunity through that. I think he tries to sort of get you doing a lot of different things. He’ll try to throw you off, give you some slower balls, some harder balls, all these kinds of things. I guess my goal is to keep him away from that, play it on my terms, be aggressive, not hesitate.”

The sixth seed knows what he must do in order to be successful, but executing the plan is easier said than done against one of the best returners in tennis. Murray’s ability to return serve and his overall outstanding defense has owned Raonic of late and there is no reason to think the trend will suddenly end under these circumstances. The world No. 2 has already contested two Wimbledon finals and won in his second appearance three years ago. Raonic, on the other hand, is competing in a slam final for the first time in his career.

A vast majority of the British fans left the Federer-Raonic semifinal showdown unhappy after sitting through it for more than three hours. They won’t have to wait as long to go home ecstatic on Sunday.

Pick: Murray in 3

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43 Comments on Wimbledon final preview and prediction: Murray vs. Raonic

  1. Raonic doesn’t have those superstar qualities to play lights out tennis on there big occasion. Has always been suspect mentally.

  2. Andrew Hardcastle rabbiting on about Raonic coming back twice from two sets down. But it wasn’t Andy the other side of the net was it 🙂

    • Murray has just been too good. His superior movement, great serving, cc backhand abs great defense has been too much for Raonic.

      This is the first slam final for Raonic and it will be a learning experience. It’s a whole other thing to win at a slam.

      Murray has not had any lapses in concentration today.

  3. This defensive tennis sucks. Andy only wins bcuz the missile was tired from semi just like 2013 when Andy won.

  4. Yes! Well done Murray! Congrats! 3rd slam title, 2nd Wimbledon, great job.

    He’s so emotional winning this one. I’m so happy for him winning this one after the two slam finals this year. Now he’s ahead of Stan where slams are concerned.

    • Yay Andy! I was confident that he would beat Raonic. I would have picked Murray over Fed, too. I thought he looked great throughout the whole tournament. Having Lendl back as his coach was like the last piece of the puzzle.

      Well done and wee deserved, Andy! It’s been a long wait. Three years. It was his time. Three slams, two of them Wimbledon!

      Andy is too good not to have more slams. I am so happy for him!

    • I hedged my prediction by saying it could be 3 or 4 sets, if Murray lost his focus at some point. But I knew he would win this. I should have just stood firm on 3 sets.

  5. Wow so this bloak now has the same number of Wimbledon titles as the great Rafael Nadal. How is that possible?

    • It’s possible because Andy is a better grass-courter than Nadal and has a natural feel for the surface. Toodles. 🙂

      • Andy v Rafa @ Wimbly: O – 3, I believe? But Andy’s a much better player than he was, and Rafa, alas, has struggled (to put it mildly) at Wimbly since 2012.

        I was very impressed with Andy’s composure today and found the match surprisingly enjoyable. Usually I can’t even watch the big servers, just fast forward to the inevitable tiebreaks.

  6. Good for Muzz! Congrats to him!
    Milos played some of his poor tennis in the breakers! All for Muzz being a great returner, he broke serve only once!

    Darn! Really missed Roger in the final!!

  7. Serve speed stats for Raonic:
    1st serve 2nd serve
    126 107 Average speed
    147 129 Maximum speed

    Somebody described Muzz as a bomb disposal expert.

  8. RT @PseudoFed: For sale: Fashionable white blazer with “18” stitched onto the pocket in gold thread. Never been worn. P.S. Congratulations Andrew ?

  9. Milos failed to rise to the ocasion. He was mentally and physically spent after such great comeback vs the greatest grass court player ever!

    Milos will have his chances! Andy was certainly the better player out there!

    Great win for Andy! I am so happy for him. He played two finals in the row, deserved to win this one…

    Congrats to the lovely fans of Andy! ?❤️

  10. Consistency and dominance: big 4
    At least one of the 4 in the final of:
    Wimbledon: Since 2003
    RG: Since 2005
    AO: Since 2006 ( Since 2004 except for 2005)
    USO: Since 2004 except for 2014

      • It’s an accomplishment just for a non-big four player to get to a slam final. Delpo made his mark by winning the 2009 USO when Fed was still in his prime. No one saw that coming.

        I guess one could say that Stan was the next big surprise, winning the 2014 AO against an injured Rafa. Then the other big shock was Cilic winning the 2014 USO. But for the last few years Novak has been the dominant player in slams.

        Raonic did well to get to his first slam final. Andy was the more experienced player and that really stood out in the two TB’s. Raonic will need to take the positives out of this match and work on improving even more. But it’s a learning experience and he gained a lot of that in this match.

        Cilic did not have to beat a top four player to win the USO, because Nishi knocked out Novak in the semis. That was the rare occasion when no top four player made it to a slam final.

        Now it will be interesting to see what happens at the USO. Can Murray get to the final again? Will Novak get through and reassert his dominance? What about rafa?

        Will another young player go deep and have a chance to get to the final? Both Novak and Stan were knocked out early at Wimbledon. We will have to see if it happens again.

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