Hamburg, Newport, and Bastad previews and predictions

If you’re one of those tennis fans who need a week off—mentally—on the heels of a Grand Slam, you won’t like what’s coming; or you’ll just have to tune it out. Not only are three ATP events on the schedule, but the Davis Cup quarterfinals will also be taking center stage next weekend. While some of the top players in the world are taking the court for Davis Cup action, all three tournament titles should be completely up for grabs to a motley crew of contenders.

German Tennis Championships

Where: Hamburg, Germany
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 1,388,830 Euros
Points: 500

Top seed: Philipp Kohlschreiber
2015 champion: Rafael Nadal (not playing)

Draw analysis: Question: What happens when you get an injured Rafael Nadal and a spot on the schedule right after a Grand Slam? Answer: a dire field by 500-point standards. Nadal captured this title last summer, but he missed Wimbledon with a wrist injury and is obviously still on the shelf. That means all of zero top 20 players will be participating this week in Hamburg. Philipp Kohlschreiber, ranked 22nd in the world as of Sunday, leads the way as the No. 1 seed. He could run into Jeremy Chardy in the quarterfinals and either Pablo Cuevas or Nicolas Almagro in the semis. Cuevas owns five career ATP titles, all on clay, including two this season. The third-seeded Uruguayan, however, may have a tough opener on his hands against Halle champion Florian Mayer.

Two of the four seeded entrants in the bottom half of the bracket are Benoit Paire and Martin Klizan. As such, it goes without saying that the door to a final spot is open for just about anyone. Paire is in the midst of another cold spell and Klizan has not earned a main-tour victory in almost five full months. An in-form Alexander Zverev is an obvious favorite on paper to reach the title match, but he could be challenged by Leonardo Mayer in round two and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the last eight.

First-round upset alert: Igor Sijsling over (7) Martin Klizan. Klizan is 70 spots ahead of Sijsling in the rankings as of Sunday, leads the head-to-head series 2-0, and has an advantage on clay. But that is just about where the good news ends for the Slovak. Since a wild run to the Rotterdam title in early February, Klizan has not won a single ATP-level match.

Hot: Pablo Cuevas, Alexander Zverev, Florian Mayer, Stephane Robert

Cold: Benoit Paire, Martin Klizan, Carlos Berlocq

Semifinal predictions: Pablo Cuevas over Philipp Kolschreiber and Alexander Zverev over Jan-Lennard Struff

Final: Cuevas over Zverev

[polldaddy poll=9466322]

SkiStar Swedish Open

Where: Bastad, Sweden
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 463,520 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: David Ferrer
2015 champion: Benoit Paire (not playing)

Draw analysis: At 34 years old, David Ferrer has finally begun to tumble down the ATP rankings. A borderline disastrous 23-14 record this season has him wallowing at No. 14 in the world. One thing the Spaniard has not done, however, is lose early at a 250-point event on clay. He has reached the semifinals of two such tournaments in 2016; not exactly spectacular results by his standards, but also not terrible. If it happens this week in Bastad, a code-red alert may have to be issued on Ferrer’s career. The top seed will open with a qualifier following a first-round bye and he should eventually reach the quarters. Possible second-round adversary Dustin Brown is always dangerous, but there is no reason why Ferrer should lose to the rockin’ German on clay. A potential all-Spanish semifinal affair with Albert Ramos-Vinolas is where things could get especially difficult for Ferrer.
Ferrer 1
A much weaker bottom half of the bracket may also have a Spanish flavor, with Fernando Verdasco and Marcel Granollers possibly in line to meet in the quarterfinals. Joao Sousa for some reason has never done his best work on clay, so Istanbul champion Diego Schwartzman may be able to take advantage of that section of the draw. Three Swedes find themselves in the bottom half, but there may be no joy for the home crowd because Elias Ymer would face Verdasco if they both win their opening match.

First-round upset alert: Karen Khachanov over (8) Evgeny Donskoy. This all-Russian affair pits a veteran who has been on the pro tour since 2007 against one who is just now breaking onto the scene. Khachanov, a 20-year-old who stands at 6’6”, showed off his potential with a Barcelona upset of Roberto Bautista Agut to reach the third round as a qualifier. Later in the clay-court swing he reached consecutive Challenger semifinals.

Hot: Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Diego Schwartzman, Marcel Granollers, Karen Khachanov, Dustin Brown

Cold: David Ferrer, Michael Berrer, Elias Ymer, Albert Montanes

Semifinal predictions: Albert Ramos-Vinolas over David Ferrer and Fernando Verdasco over Joao Sousa

Final: Ramos-Vinolas over Verdasco

[polldaddy poll=9466323]

Hall of Fame Tennis Championships

Where: Newport, Rhode Island
Surface: Grass
Prize money: $515,025
Points: 250

Top seed: Steve Johnson
Defending champion: Rajeev Ram

Draw analysis: As one might expect for a small, 250-point grass-court tournament immediately following Wimbledon, the Hall of Fame Tennis Championships has a history of producing unexpected results. In fact, since Vijay Amritraj in 1976, John Isner is the only No. 1 seed to capture the title (he did it twice in 2011 and 2012). While this year’s tournament appears to be similarly wide open, Steve Johnson will have designs of following in Isner’s footsteps. The in-form American lifted a winner’s trophy for the first time in his career last month in Nottingham and he used that momentum to make a fourth-round run at the All-England Club. Johnson looks to have a favorable draw in a soft top quarter, but he could face either Gilles Muller or Adrian Mannarino in the semifinals.
Johnson 2
Two-time Newport champ Rajeev Ram is lurking in the bottom half of the bracket and will certainly not be overlooked despite lacking the distinction of a seed. The grass-court specialist should cruise through his first two matches before a possible quarterfinal date with Marcos Baghdatis. Ivo Karlovic and Vasek Pospisil are also on course for a potential quarterfinal collision, with the winner likely to go up against either Ram or Baghdatis.

First-round upset alert: Lukas Lacko over (7) Dudi Sela. From completely out of nowhere, Lacko advanced to the third round at Wimbledon. The 123rd-ranked Slovak had been a mere 1-3 at the ATP level this season, but he managed to pick up wins over Paolo Lorenzi and Ivo Karlovic before bowing out to Marin Cilic. Although Sela leads the head-to-head series 3-1, he is not exactly a force on grass.

Hot: Steve Johnson, Gilles Muller, Dennis Novikov

Cold: Vasek Pospisil, Sam Groth, Ryan Harrison

Semifinal predictions
: Gilles Muller over Steve Johnson and Rajeev Ram over Ivo Karlovic

Final: Ram over Muller

[polldaddy poll=9466422]

14 Comments on Hamburg, Newport, and Bastad previews and predictions

  1. ” Motley crew of contenders”, love that! Will be watching USA in Davis Cup. Taking the rest of the week off.

  2. Why in the world is Dreddy not at the ATP 250 on grass or at the home event that is 500 level but is at the 250 event in Sweden on clay?

    • He would make a deep run with his draw on grass but on clay I’m not so sure. It’s a good enough draw for him to still make a good run as long as he plays pretty well.

  3. Hamburg:
    QF-
    Kohlschreiber over Youzhny
    Cuevas over Almagro
    Zverev over GGL
    Klizan over Medvedev
    SF-
    Cuevas over Kohlschreiber
    Zverev over Klizan
    Final-
    Cuevas over Klizan

  4. Bastad:
    QF-
    Brown over Ferrer
    ARV over Khachanov
    Verdasco over Granollers
    Sousa over Elias
    SF-
    Brown over ARV
    Verdasco over Sousa
    Final-
    Verdasco over Brown

    • Now that khachanov lost I still think ARV will win through that section by beating one of the three he could play. If I had to pick one I would say he takes down Trungelliti for a SF spot.

  5. Am I the only one who thinks Kohlschreiber has a shot at the Hamburg title? He tends to do well in Germany, and I would love to see him get the win.

  6. Newport:
    QF-
    Johnson over Young
    Muller over Mannarino
    Ram over Baghdatis
    Karlovic over Thompson
    SF-
    Muller over Johnson
    Ram over Karlovic
    Final-
    Muller over Ram

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.