Wimbledon final preview and prediction: Murray vs. Raonic

For the first time since 2002, the Wimbledon singles final will be without Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, or Novak Djokovic. Instead, Andy Murray will battle first-time Grand Slam finalist Milos Raonic for the title on Sunday. Raonic has survived five-setters in two of his last three matches.

Andy Murray and Milos Raonic will be squaring off for the 10th time in their careers and for the fourth time this season when they battle for the Wimbledon title on Sunday afternoon.

Murray is leading the head-to-head series 6-3 after once trailing it 3-1. The Scot’s five-match winning streak at Raonic’s expense includes a flawless 3-0 mark in 2016. Murray prevailed 4-6, 7-5, 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-2 in the Australian Open semifinals, 6-2, 6-0 on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo, and 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-3 in the recent Queen’s Club championship match. Their first-ever grass-court meeting saw Raonic lead by a set and a break only squander all of his advantage by losing four of his last eight service games.

“I got sucked into his game,” the Canadian said of their Queen’s Club contest. “I didn’t play on my terms.”

“I don’t know what that means,” Murray responded when told of Raonic’s assessment. “I don’t know what I was doing to suck him into my style of play. I don’t know. I generally don’t know what it is I do.”

What Murray generally does is win, and that is exactly what he has been doing ever since losing last month’s French Open final to Novak Djokovic. The two-time major champion is a perfect 11-0 on grass with victories this fortnight over Liam Broady, Yen-Hsun Lu, John Millman, Nick Kyrgios, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Tomas Berdych. Tsonga pushed Murray to five sets after dropping the first two, but Murray’s other five outings en route to Sunday were straight-set beatdowns.
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Raonic, meanwhile, has required two five-setters along the way. The world No. 7 even trailed David Goffin by two sets to love during fourth-round action on Monday but roared back to get the job done 4-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. Roger Federer had Raonic on the ropes to an even greater extent in Friday’s first semifinal, but the underdog staved off a handful of seemingly virtual match points before triumphing 6-3, 6-7(3), 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 in three hours and 25 minutes. Raonic’s trek through the All-England Club also includes routine wins over Pablo Carreno Busta, Andreas Seppi, Jack Sock, and Sam Querrey.

“Milos is a very tough opponent,” Murray assured. “He’s played very well on the grass this year and has earned his right to the final by beating one of the best, if not the best player ever, at this event. So he deserves to be there.”

“Andy is one of the premier workaholics, let’s say,” Raonic noted. “He’s given himself a lot of opportunity through that. I think he tries to sort of get you doing a lot of different things. He’ll try to throw you off, give you some slower balls, some harder balls, all these kinds of things. I guess my goal is to keep him away from that, play it on my terms, be aggressive, not hesitate.”

The sixth seed knows what he must do in order to be successful, but executing the plan is easier said than done against one of the best returners in tennis. Murray’s ability to return serve and his overall outstanding defense has owned Raonic of late and there is no reason to think the trend will suddenly end under these circumstances. The world No. 2 has already contested two Wimbledon finals and won in his second appearance three years ago. Raonic, on the other hand, is competing in a slam final for the first time in his career.

A vast majority of the British fans left the Federer-Raonic semifinal showdown unhappy after sitting through it for more than three hours. They won’t have to wait as long to go home ecstatic on Sunday.

Pick: Murray in 3

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34 Comments on Wimbledon final preview and prediction: Murray vs. Raonic

  1. I think Murray will win. I think it’s his time now. It’s been three years since he won Wimbledon and Novak is not in the final. Lendl us back as his coach for this one.

    I am just going back and forth about whether it will be 3 or 4 sets. The other thing is that Raonic will have to beat both the # 3 or # 2 players in the world. That’s s tough task. Raonic eill be feeling good about his win over Fed. That is an accomplishment. But can he do it again in the final?

    I can see Raonic getting a set if Murray has a brain cramp or loses focus the way he did in the quarterfinals in the fourth set. But I think Murray is looking determined and has his eye on the prize.

    I will just say 3 sets, possibly 4. I really want Murray to win. It’s time for him to get another slam win and doing it again at Wimbledon would be great,

  2. Raonic has unexpectedly been catapulted into the limelight but a Slam final is uncharted territory for him. Remains to be seen how well he will cope under the pressure. Agree with people who believe he could take a set if he keeps his wits about him but I’m more inclined to think it will be a steep learning curve for him and he will suffer the same fate as Berdy.

    Andy in 4

  3. I’m not too worried about this being first grand slam final for Raonic. I think he’s ready for this and has a competitive rivalry going against Murray.

    However, Murray is in career best form right now, as good as he was when he won the US Open beating an inform- Djokovic.

    This being Wimbledon, arguably Murray’s best surface with the home ground advantage, an easy run to the finals and Lendl in his corner should prove too much for Raonic. If Raonic is to win this he will have to play lights out tennis like Krajicek, Becker or Stich did in the 90s when they win their maiden grand slams.

    Murray is playing so well, serving great and defending as good as new ever done, the most likely outcome is Murray in 4.

  4. Well, until & unless Raonic feels completely frozen by the occasion, this match will go to 5 sets!
    Whether it will be Muzz or Milos holding the trophy, I’m not yet sure.

  5. Murray in 3 or 4 sets. He’s the best player this tournament, combining good serves with good returns, good varieties and good ground strokes, but tends to enjoy retrieving than attacking, preferring to play the cat and mouse game and outsmarts his opponents. Too bad, Fed didn’t make it to face Murray, it would be nice to see how Murray would pitch his varied game vs Fed on grass, I feel.

    Let’s see how one of the best returners of serves fares against Raonic’s improved huge and varied serve; some contrast of style there.

  6. Funny how Cilic actually played a much better match than Rao and still lost. Rooting for Murray here. This is his chance to raise his confidence and probably the only final he’s played without facing either Djokovic or Federer.

    • I think Cilic played better for 2 sets but relaxed and took his foot off the pedal for sets 3-5 thinking the sun would just come.

      • Not really. I think he got a little tight in the fourth set but hell, even Djokovic got tight against Querry and even Roger was tight on SPs. He played great all round tennis. Raonic-well, Roger pretty much handed him the two breaks of serve in the first and the fourth set. Otherwise, he was in all kinds of trouble during the match, including the fourth set. He was barely making any inroads on Federer’s service games except the two games he broke in thanks to Roger’s generous DFs. Cilic was phenomenal I thought. Del Po like composure. I expect Murray to win unless something goes really wrong.

        • If Cilic was composed, then he would have won the match. The fact is that he started making too many errors, list his focus and intensity and let the match slip away from him. Credit goes to Fed for coming up with the big serves when he needed them to win the fourth set, but he had help from Cilic.

          Raonic stayed tough, took what Fed gave him with the double faults and won the fourth set. It was Raonic who stepped up in that fifth set to get the break to make it 3-1.

          That was the difference between Cilic and Raonic.

          • Roger’s fall in the fifth cost him the set IMO. Raonic had absolutely nothing on Roger’s service games till then. And of course he took what Fed gave him. It’s not like the scoring system allows him to reject a point gained via a double.

  7. Raonic was thrown a lifeline in the fourth, and so he stepped it up in the fifth. Cilic just lost the fourth set and a two sets to one lead, so he’s more upset than anything else when playing in the fifth. It’s Fed with his narrow escape after facing MPs, who lifted his game in the fifth, after being thrown a lifeline, just like the way Raonic did in the fifth.

    Cilic and Raonic – two different scenarios. I do agree with Fedfan here, Cilic was composed for two and a half sets, grew tight when he’s about to win in three and Fed took advantage, held serve until the fourth set TB and grew tight in the TB, DF and lost it.

    Cilic was playing better tennis vs Fed than Raonic did against Fed. Fed after going through a five sets match, was still able to handle Raonic until that last game of the
    fourth set. To me Cilic’s game bothers Fed more than Raonic’s did – Cilic moves better, rallies better and returns slightly better than Raonic but Raonic is mentally much stronger at crucial moments and keeps fighting all the way.

    I think both couldn’t read Fed’s second serves and Fed was winning many free points on his second serves as he could serve aces, or varied the pace, or simply picked his spot and hit precisely. However, he was hitting too many second serves imo and hence finally DF ( and at the worse time).

  8. Thanks. That’s exactly what I wanted to say. If Roger could make as many inroads as he did, with a return that is a shadow of its former self, Murray will do a much better job. Raonic’s main option is to S&V consistently and put Murray under pressure to come up with the goods from the back Court.

  9. I disagree about Rao being mentally tougher though. Cilic is the guy with a slam right now. The real test for Milos is tomorrow.

    • Raonic does come up with better shots at big points. Cilic cruised through his last three matches in flushing meadows 2014. He didn’t really have a lot of big moments where he needed to come up with big shots. He probably did hit lots of big serves to save break points that tournament but in general Cilic isn’t that tough when it comes to the big points. He double faulted at 8-8 in the fourth set breaker for example. Raonic isn’t an amazingly clutch player but he does seem to come up with bigger serves and shots on break points typically. More than Cilic it seems.

      • Benny,

        Thanks for making that point. You get what I was trying to say. I absolutely agree with you about Raonic coming up with better shots on the big points. That’s because he can withstand the pressure and respond in the crucial moments of matches.

        Cilic did have that big serve working so well for him in the 2014 USO. That’s a powerful weapon to have. I also think that he lost his service rhythm in the latter part of the fourth set in his match with Fed. He wasn’t able to get the big first serves when he needed them.

    • The fact that Cilic has a slam is not proof that he is mentally tough. In the 2014 USO Cilic was serving out of his mind. He tweaked his service motion with the help of his coach. He played some brilliant tennis to win his first slam. But he has not been able to back it up. He did have injuries and has struggled in the last two year. This is the best he’s looked since the 2014 USO.

      Raonic has shown a great deal of composure right from the start. He has always been mentally strong. I think it’s one of his real strengths. He’s also put in the hard work to improve his groundstrokes and movement.

      Cilic was ahead in his match with Fed. He did outplay Fed. But he did start making sloppy errors in the fourth set and Fed played very well especially with his serving. Fed had the crowd firmly behind him at that point and Cilic just wasn’t able to stay strong and close it out in four sets.

      I think Ricky summed it up best when he recapped Fed’s ride to the semis, where the road ended for him. He said that Fed should have lost the match with Cilic and won the match with Raonic. I agree with him.

      • Yep that’s true. Didn’t think he would get out of the Cilic match but I thought he would win against Milos after winning the third set.

  10. It looks as if Raonic could now be more of a consistent threat at tournaments, especially in matches over 3 sets. I would love to see Murray and his superb variety win a 3rd GS. It will be interesting to see how Ranoic’s serve holds up after playing significantly more than Murray in the lead up to the final. I pick Murray in 3.

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