Wimbledon final preview and prediction: Murray vs. Raonic

For the first time since 2002, the Wimbledon singles final will be without Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, or Novak Djokovic. Instead, Andy Murray will battle first-time Grand Slam finalist Milos Raonic for the title on Sunday. Raonic has survived five-setters in two of his last three matches.

Andy Murray and Milos Raonic will be squaring off for the 10th time in their careers and for the fourth time this season when they battle for the Wimbledon title on Sunday afternoon.

Murray is leading the head-to-head series 6-3 after once trailing it 3-1. The Scot’s five-match winning streak at Raonic’s expense includes a flawless 3-0 mark in 2016. Murray prevailed 4-6, 7-5, 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-2 in the Australian Open semifinals, 6-2, 6-0 on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo, and 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-3 in the recent Queen’s Club championship match. Their first-ever grass-court meeting saw Raonic lead by a set and a break only squander all of his advantage by losing four of his last eight service games.

“I got sucked into his game,” the Canadian said of their Queen’s Club contest. “I didn’t play on my terms.”

“I don’t know what that means,” Murray responded when told of Raonic’s assessment. “I don’t know what I was doing to suck him into my style of play. I don’t know. I generally don’t know what it is I do.”

What Murray generally does is win, and that is exactly what he has been doing ever since losing last month’s French Open final to Novak Djokovic. The two-time major champion is a perfect 11-0 on grass with victories this fortnight over Liam Broady, Yen-Hsun Lu, John Millman, Nick Kyrgios, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Tomas Berdych. Tsonga pushed Murray to five sets after dropping the first two, but Murray’s other five outings en route to Sunday were straight-set beatdowns.
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Raonic, meanwhile, has required two five-setters along the way. The world No. 7 even trailed David Goffin by two sets to love during fourth-round action on Monday but roared back to get the job done 4-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. Roger Federer had Raonic on the ropes to an even greater extent in Friday’s first semifinal, but the underdog staved off a handful of seemingly virtual match points before triumphing 6-3, 6-7(3), 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 in three hours and 25 minutes. Raonic’s trek through the All-England Club also includes routine wins over Pablo Carreno Busta, Andreas Seppi, Jack Sock, and Sam Querrey.

“Milos is a very tough opponent,” Murray assured. “He’s played very well on the grass this year and has earned his right to the final by beating one of the best, if not the best player ever, at this event. So he deserves to be there.”

“Andy is one of the premier workaholics, let’s say,” Raonic noted. “He’s given himself a lot of opportunity through that. I think he tries to sort of get you doing a lot of different things. He’ll try to throw you off, give you some slower balls, some harder balls, all these kinds of things. I guess my goal is to keep him away from that, play it on my terms, be aggressive, not hesitate.”

The sixth seed knows what he must do in order to be successful, but executing the plan is easier said than done against one of the best returners in tennis. Murray’s ability to return serve and his overall outstanding defense has owned Raonic of late and there is no reason to think the trend will suddenly end under these circumstances. The world No. 2 has already contested two Wimbledon finals and won in his second appearance three years ago. Raonic, on the other hand, is competing in a slam final for the first time in his career.

A vast majority of the British fans left the Federer-Raonic semifinal showdown unhappy after sitting through it for more than three hours. They won’t have to wait as long to go home ecstatic on Sunday.

Pick: Murray in 3

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8 Comments on Wimbledon final preview and prediction: Murray vs. Raonic

  1. It’s been hard for Andy to win GS finals the last three years with Novak and Roger in the way. Honestly, it would have been shocking if he let Raonic win. This was his one chance to sneak one in.

    • I don’t care how Andy got it. I knew when Novak was knocked out early that it opened things up for Fed and also Andy. Raonic was able to take advantage and got a place in the final.

      I thought Andy has a good shot at winning Wimbledon even before started. He has been playing some of his best tennis and getting Lendl back as his coach was a great move.

      Andy did get a break not having to face Novak in the final. But that’s how it goes. I hope Andy gets the chance to face Novak in a slam final and finally beat him. Andy has been in the shadow of Fed, Rafa and Novak.

      This was his time and I am really glad that he made the most of it!

  2. The best grass courter in the world won Wimbledon in my view. Murray would have definitely beaten federer and most likely Novak too.. Murray also loves the surface at USO so he has a great shot there as well.

    Andy should rest now… he has played A LOT since Monte Carlo… He’s hit the peak of his career now. And, congrats to his brilliant coach as well who knows how to get the best out of his man.

  3. Don’t be fooled into thinking that this Murray is just like last year’s Murray..he is far better in every aspect! And, Roger had an abnormal serving day last year….

  4. Tennis became boring last year because big 4 became big 1 and nextgen did not break through. Fedal created huge interest in tennis and now there is so much money in this sport. The moment a young player is seen as talented, sponsors rush to sign him up before his price can go through the roof. Kid becomes less hungry and more distracted…

  5. I do think Rafa has a very strong run left in him GIVEN he no longer faces injury breaks… it would be too much mentally for him….his knees look fine now and given that he has had decent rest over the last 2 years due to other injuries and appendix issue, the knees should be fine I guess. I hope this left wrist issue never resurfaces. He hasn’t complained about the back lately so hoping that will be fine too. My goodness it is a long list….poor Rafa!

    Saw the Rome highlights few days ago and his tennis was there…to me he was ready to beat Novak at RG :/

    Anyway, congrats to Murray and his fans and now we have Olympics and USO left…

    • vr,

      I certainly echo your thoughts about Rafa, he really was there, right on the brink to challenge Novak at RG. I sincerely hope that his injury woes are behind him. I don’t want him to lose the progress he made up to RG.

      Rafa can have one more great run, provided NO more injuries! It’s took are on him mentally.

      However, this is truly Andy’s day! He should be the focus for finally winning another slam after three long years. He’s playing some of his best tennis right now. I think this will give him a huge boost as he moves forward. I expect to see him contending for the USO.

      I would love to see Rafa, Fed, Novak and Murray all playing at the USO. Some great tennis ahead for us and there is the Rio Olympics, too!

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