U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Wawrinka vs. Nishikori

A relatively surprising bottom-half U.S. Open semifinal will pit Stan Wawrinka against Kei Nishikori on Friday. Nishikori is coming off a five-set victory over Andy Murray. The winner of this match will battle either Novak Djokovic or Gael Monfils for the title.

Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori will be facing each other for the sixth time in their careers and for the second time at the U.S. Open when they battle for a place in the title match on Friday.

Wawrinka is leading the head-to-head series 3-2, but he has lost two of their last three encounters dating back to the quarterfinals of this event in 2014. That one certainly did not disappoint, as Nishikori picked up a 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(7), 6-7(5), 6-4 victory on the way to his first and so far only Grand Slam final appearance. Interestingly, all of their other four matchups ended in straight sets–including a 7-6(6), 6-1 decision in Nishikori’s favor earlier this summer in Toronto.

It has been full speed ahead for Japan’s top player since finishing runner-up to Novak Djokovic in Toronto, as he captured the bronze medal at the Rio Olympics and now finds himself in the U.S. Open semis. Nishikori booked his spot in the last four by beating Benjamin Becker, Karen Khachanov, Nicolas Mahut, Ivo Karlovic, and Andy Murray. The world No. 7 was especially impressive in a straight-set beatdown of Karlovic and a 1-6, 6-4, 4-6, 6-1, 7-5 triumph over Andy Murray on Wednesday afternoon.

Nishikori in Atlanta

Wawrinka is on a second life of sorts in Flushing Meadows. The third-ranked Swiss came within one point of crashing out in round three but he staved off defeat in the fourth set against Dan Evans and eventually prevailed 4-6, 6-3, 6-7(6), 7-6(8), 6-2. He has also taken out Fernando Verdasco, Alessandro Giannessi, Illya Marchenko, and Juan Martin Del Potro. Wawrinka is a respectable 37-12 this year, but he has not reached a final since Geneva in mid-May and he was just 5-5 in his last 10 matches prior to the U.S. Open.

“It’s going to be interesting, for sure,” the No. 3 seed said. “We (have) played many times against each other. I saw him play [against Murray]; he was playing really well. It’s going to be tough match. We will see also how I’m going to feel physically in two days to get ready for that.”

When healthy, which he is right now, Nishikori has never had physical problems dealing with tough matches. Two summers ago, for example, he won consecutive five-setters against Milos Raonic and Wawrinka before upsetting Djokovic in the semis. Based on current form, the way Nishikori handled his 2014 semifinal, and the fact that he is 5-0 lifetime against top-1o opponents at this event, he should have an ever-so-slight edge.

Pick: Nishikori in 5

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21 Comments on U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Wawrinka vs. Nishikori

  1. Yes Stan wins! Well done! Hope he wins his third slam here, that will be something – I mean if he can do it, that means he’s 3 for 3 in finals, and has been winning one slam a year for three straight years! Impressive in his own way; Stan has become a big match player these days and he’s smart enough to concentrate on winning the slams more than winning the smaller tour events.

  2. I read somewhere that one crazy journalist asked Stan a question about what he’s aiming for playing tennis now when he can never be like Fed, Rafa and Djoko. Stan was calm in his response, when he asked in return – what he expect Stan himself to do? To go to the beach everyday to relax, at age 31? Stan said he enjoys playing tennis and has learned tennis from young.

    I mean that journalist, is he for real? So if you’re not Fed/Rafa/Djoko, you shouldnt be playing tennis?? Then what about Murray, Kei or even Monfils? They all should be quitting soon as they are not going to be like the ATG trio?

    Stan makes a good living out of tennis, he earns some good endorsement money too esp after winning his slams. Why must he think of quitting? No wonder Stan mentioned Fed and Rafa being great champions in his on court interview; must be feeling hurt being treated in that manner by that particular stupid journalist.

    Anyway Kei is making tons of money from sponsorship when he hasnt won any thing big but has become famous when he’s in top ten.

    • Writers ask questions that they think will lead to a good quote, not because they want to know the answer. Agree with your points though. They apply to Monfils too. Monfils is a very popular player and I expect he makes a very good living doing his thing. What tournament wouldn’t want him there? Guaranteed to fill some seats.

      Kei is a huge star in Japan and was famous there long before he made the top ten.

  3. I had a feeling the match would go down pretty much the way it did. Kei had a really tough semifinal v Murray, and he seems a little fragile compared to the other top guys.

    The final should be interesting. I don’t think Stan will be tired and Novak is clearly not at his best and does not intimidate Stan. Stan may get his 3rd slam of the 4, but it’ll be a really cold day in the nether regions before he wins Wimbledon.

      • That was why I was struggling to make a prediction for this match. U.K. I knew that Stan was capable of winning if he could impose his power game. But Nishi was looking very good. I was concerned that he might hit a wall in this match.

        Stan has s better chance of defeating Novak. He hasn’t been able to play his best tennis this year, but when he’s on his game then we know he can best Novak.

        I do expect Novak to come out playing better in the final. If Stan can play well enough consistently in the final, then he has a chance to win. At least we should get a decent final.

        It was just nice to see two players come out and give it their best in this semifinal. Even though Nishi was feeling the effects of his tough five setter against Murray, he still kept on fighting.

        Good for both guys!

  4. So with Nishi’s loss, is Rafa no.4 in the rankings? Nishi now will have 4875 points, whilst Rafa 4940 but they include the 90 pts from BA thus counting 7 instead of 6 250/500 events, strange.

    I hope Rafa stays in top 4 for the sake of his seedings in the coming Masters events.

    • Luckystar (AT 3:41 AM),

      They are counting Buenos Aires instead of the Canada Masters because Rafa was allowed to skip the latter. (ATP Rulebook, page 196.) He is allowed to skip two Masters during this season.

      • I thought they are allowed only 6 countable 250/500 events?

        Rafa will be no.4 if they include his BA points. No.4 is better for him of course as he avoids the top 2 guys until the SF stage. Hopefully he’s able to reach the SF stage at least, he has many points to defend and to gain too so hopefully he remains in top 4 for the YE rankings.

        • Luckystar (AT 10:51 PM),

          As for the nearest future, retaining the No.4 spot until the Shanghai Masters doesn’t depend only on Rafa. Raonic and Nishi are not far behind Rafa in the reankings.
          Before the Shanghai Masters, Raonic is going to play in St. Petersburg (W in 2015) & Beijing (zero in 2015) and Nishi in Tokyo (SF in 2015).
          Rafa earned 300 points in Beijing last year. Rafa has to play before the Shanhgai Masters better than Raonic & Nishi do. 🙂

          Live rankings before the USO final:
          https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsEk4fmWEAAVgKN.jpg

          • Beijing and Tokyo ranking points not counted for Shanghai seeding as they’re the week before Shanghai, ie past the cut off date. Raonic is the defending champion at St Petersburg so he can only drop points should he fail to defend his title.

        • Luckystar (AT 10:51 PM),

          As for the countable events, the ATP Rulebook says:
          ¤¤ NOTE: A player who is eligible for a reduction of his ATP World Tour Masters 1000 commitment tournaments per Section 1.08 who withdraws prior to the withdrawal deadline and uses his exemption may have the number of his results from all other eligible tournaments in the ranking period, that count for his ranking, increased by one (1) for each milestone reached with a maximum of three (3).¤¤

  5. That’s the thing about Stan…no matter how poorly he is playing in the earlier rounds, he can find his game in the ending stages of a slam. His game is so imposing and he is so much self-belief as well.

    Based on the semis, Stan is the favourite. I don’t know what to say about Djokovic. If he plays like he did in the semi he’ll surely lose but we know he’ll raise his level.

    I don’t think his shoulder is that serious but at this level, even small issues can affect you because they can create doubts in your mind.

    Stan has pushed him to 5 sets at USO but this time he needs to win 3 sets.

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