U.S. Open final preview and prediction: Kerber vs. Pliskova

Two days after upsetting Serena Williams in the U.S. Open semifinals, Cincinnati champion Karolina Pliskova will play in a Grand Slam title match for the first time in her career. Standing in Pliskova’s way of the winner’s trophy on Saturday is Angelique Kerber, who triumphed at this season’s Australian Open.

It will be a rematch of the recent Cincinnati final when Angelique Kerber and Karolina Pliskova battle for the U.S. Open title on Saturday night. Pliskova clobbered Kerber 6-3, 6-1 last month for the biggest title of her career, but it is the German who still leads the head-to-head series 4-3–including 3-2 on hard courts.

Heading into semifinal action on Thursday, a different rematch was expected: a third Grand Slam final this season between Kerber and Serena Williams. Pliskova, though, had other ideas and she stunned the top-ranked American 6-2, 7-6(5) in the first of the two semis. That breakthrough result was preceded by victories over Sofia Kenin, Montserrat Gonzalez, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Venus Williams (in a third-set tiebreaker), and Ana Konjuh. Pliskova’s 11-match winning streak dating back to the start of the Cincinnati event also features defeats of Svetlana Kuznetsova and Garbine Muguruza.

But, of course, it reached a whole new level with the 11th-ranked Czech’s semifinal upset of the No. 1 seed.

“It doesn’t happen often that you’re playing [in a] semifinal against Serena on center court here in New York,” Pliskova commented. “It doesn’t happen often that you’re in the final of Grand Slams. I’m really excited to be there and really excited to be in a Grand Slam final for first time in my life…. It was always a dream to get a title, get to the semifinal, get to the final. So it’s a big result for me. I hope I [don’t] stop yet, that there is still one more step to go. I’ll do anything [to get] the title.”

It won’t be easy with Kerber on the other side of the net. The second-ranked German has been the best player on the WTA Tour this season, with a title at the Australian Open, a runner-up finish at Wimbledon, and a silver medal at the Rio Olympics. For her efforts (and even without getting any points at the Olympics), she will be No. 1 in the world on Monday. Kerber already had that milestone wrapped up when Williams lost to Pliskova, after which she put an exclamation point on the day by beating Caroline Wozniacki 6-4, 6-3.

“It feels amazing,” the second seed said of her upcoming distinction as the world’s best. “It feels just great. I mean, the day came today and to be now the No. 1 in the world, that was always a dream for me. I was trying to not [think] too much the whole last few weeks about this, and now I [have reached] it. So it’s something really special for me, because I was dreaming for this No. 1.”

Kerber came within one match of locking it up last month, but that is when she succumbed to Pliskova in the Cincinnati final. This time around, she will not have the added pressure of needing to win in order to reach the top spot. Instead it could be Pliskova feeling the pressure even though she is an obvious underdog on paper, as she has never competed in a major title match. Kerber, on the other hand, is now a three-time Grand Slam finalist to go along with two additional semifinal appearances and two quarterfinal finishes. As such, the favorite should be able to turn the tables on Pliskova and exact revenge for what transpired in Cincinnati.

Pick: Kerber in 3

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