U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Del Potro

It will be a rematch of last year’s U.S. Open semifinals when Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro meet again at the same stage on Friday for their third encounter in the last three Grand Slams and fourth in the last five majors.

Nadal has extended his lead in the head-to-head series to 11-5 with three consecutive victories and a 7-2 record in their last nine matches since losing three in a row to Del Potro back in 2009–including a 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 beatdown in another U.S. Open semifinal showdown. The world No. 1 prevailed 3-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 in last summer’s semis in New York City, dominated 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 at the French Open this spring, and survived a 7-5, 6-7(7), 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 Wimbledon thriller.

A 17th chapter in this rivalry was almost postponed, as Nadal found himself on the brink of defeat against Dominic Thiem on Tuesday night (or more like Wednesday morning). The three-time U.S. Open champion outlasted Thiem 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5) in a four-hour and 49-minute battle that ended at 2:04 a.m. Nadal preceded that triumph with wins over David Ferrer, Vasek Pospisil, Karen Khachanov, and Nikoloz Basilashvili, dropping one set to both Khachanov and Basilashvili.

Del Potro enjoyed much smoother sailing to the semis. The 2009 U.S. Open winner smoked Donald Young, Denis Kudla, Fernando Verdasco, and Borna Coric in straight sets before getting the best of John Isner 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-2 on Tuesday afternoon. Del Potro is now an amazing 42-10 this season and well on his way to his first Nitto ATP Finals appearance since 2013.

“It could be another big battle, as the Wimbledon match was,” the third-seeded Argentine said of Friday’s upcoming date with Nadal. “I like to play always [against] the No. 1 of the world, doesn’t matter the tournament or the conditions or the weather. I just have the chance to play the greatest on this sport, and it’s amazing for me.”

Nadal also relishes the challenge.

“(It) will be a big challenge,” the Spaniard assured. “(It) a [matchup in which] we know each other very well. I know he’s playing well. I know that I will have to play at my highest level to keep having chances of success.

(It) will be a very tough one. In Wimbledon he’s a great player; he’s a great player on grass. He’s a great player everywhere. But the challenge of playing him on hard, of course, is even higher for me personally than playing against him on clay–like happened in Roland Garros. Even [there] I had a very lucky first set.”

Even on hard courts, though, this has become a favorable matchup for Nadal–especially given his current form (45-3 overall this year, 10-0 on hard courts this summer). The top seed’s relentless topspin works well to the Del Potro backhand, which is a much-improved shot but still vulnerable. Nadal’s key weapon against the world No. 3 is his down-the-line forehand, as Del Potro frequently runs around his backhand and leaves the deuce side of the court wide open. Nadal was hitting that shot exceptionally well throughout the marathon against Thiem.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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30 Comments on U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Del Potro

  1. He should let his knee recover and then train to improve his serve! He’s basically playing attritional tennis on the HCs so far; a regression from last year when he’s able to be more aggressive.

    Rafa should just retire after losing the second set; just go back and rest!

    • This is hard to see. The knee again. I guess he needs to stop and rest and take care of the knee. I hate to see this happening to him.

  2. Rafa should retire from this match, he’s obviously not fit. He usually plays matches when he is clearly struggling with injury and no one ever remembers that he wasn’t fit but would go on talking about the loss for years like the AO 2014 when he lost to Stan with a back injury.

    • Sorry for Rafa. Of course Rafa’s injury must be very serious to retire in the SF of USO.

      Delpo wouldn’t want to win like this. But Delpo has suffered many, many disappointments and many years lost due to injury.

  3. I don’t want Rafa to do any more damage to the knee. This is what I was afraid of – that despite two days rest it would act up in this match.

    I do not think he has had this for a while. The way he played at Wimbledon showed that he was moving well. He looked okay in Toronto.

    The problem is that he has to work so hard because his serve is not good enough. He is st a point where he has to be aggressive and win matches as efficiently as possible.

    These marathon slugfests are killing his knee..

  4. Not Rafa’s day fellow Rafans.

    Rafa ran too many miles falling behind one too many.

    Still the GOAT.

    Sad to see Rafa injured again but he’s a true champ.

    Happy for any of the three remaining players to win the title. All deserving.

  5. Probably leaning towards Del Potro. I just think the season he’s had with his losses along the way has set him up for another US Open title.

  6. the moonballer is done! a victim of his own play style. he needs to readjust his approach to the game otherwise he won’t be able to play tennis for much longer.

    • Hate to admit but I actually agree with you! Rafa’s style of tennis is taxing on his body and unlike Fed he will not endure much longer playing like this. But I also know it’s impossible for Rafa to reinvent his style and suddenly become s&v player…anyway, too late for drastic changes of style…

      Vamos Rafa no matter what!

      • Nats, actually Rafa had started playing more aggressive tennis last year. It need not be S&V to be aggressive, Rafa was moving to the net, stepping inside the court often, hence he’s able to win at Beijing and reached final of Shanghai fast HC, not forgetting how he won at RG.

        It’s after his hip injury this year that I feel also affected his serve; and so he wasn’t able to be aggressive without a good serve to start with, unlike last year. It’s even worse now with knee issue. He has to rest and let that knee recovers, improves his serve again.

        He has to rely more on his offense rather than being defensive and doing all the running. I know he loves to run, but he should know his own body better, that doing all the running would cause him, his knees in particular, all sorts of injury issues. If he keeps playing attritional tennis, not listening to his own body, he’s going to end his career soon.

        How much running he had to do even on grass at Wimbledon! His matches were always long, if only he had a better serve, he would at least save his knees from too much running. It all added up and finally his knee gave way again.

    • Yeah. After all of his injuries, I’d love to see him do it but Nole has the upper hand out of the final three.

      Vamos Delpo!!!

      Will be happy for Nole and Nishi if they win too.

  7. Rafa played great in the first set. I think he was the better player but his serve wasn’t great because his knee was bothering him. I wish he had retired against Stan in AO 2014 because everyone has forgotten that he had back problem in that match.

    • Agreed. Rafa was definitely the better player in the first set and he would have won if there were no injuries.

      I also love Delpo, he is such a nice guy, but I don’t give him much chance against Novak unless he raises his level, plays on adrenaline and cuts on those unforced errors…

  8. I think Rafa will skip everything until the indoor season. I think he may rest for two months and comes back to play Paris Masters and WTF.

  9. That long match v Thiem was too much – maybe? Rafa also had lost sets to Khachanov and Basilashvili.

    For Federer it was the muscular younger Australian. Millman is a bleeping wall. Nole won in 3 sets but those were incredibly hard fought rallies. Nole appeared wiped-out, depleted from the conditions – and as thin as I’ve seen him. He looked better when he started Cincy.

    It’s not a given that Nole will beat Kei. But that win over Cilic was tough. Depends on who has the better recovery.

    As I said before I would be so happy for Delpo if he won another USO! Sure I want Nole to get #14 but may the best man win! Kei getting his first GS – I always hope for that.

    Feels kinda like Delpo’s time though. 😀

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