U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Del Potro

It will be a rematch of last year’s U.S. Open semifinals when Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro meet again at the same stage on Friday for their third encounter in the last three Grand Slams and fourth in the last five majors.

Nadal has extended his lead in the head-to-head series to 11-5 with three consecutive victories and a 7-2 record in their last nine matches since losing three in a row to Del Potro back in 2009–including a 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 beatdown in another U.S. Open semifinal showdown. The world No. 1 prevailed 3-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 in last summer’s semis in New York City, dominated 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 at the French Open this spring, and survived a 7-5, 6-7(7), 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 Wimbledon thriller.

A 17th chapter in this rivalry was almost postponed, as Nadal found himself on the brink of defeat against Dominic Thiem on Tuesday night (or more like Wednesday morning). The three-time U.S. Open champion outlasted Thiem 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5) in a four-hour and 49-minute battle that ended at 2:04 a.m. Nadal preceded that triumph with wins over David Ferrer, Vasek Pospisil, Karen Khachanov, and Nikoloz Basilashvili, dropping one set to both Khachanov and Basilashvili.

Del Potro enjoyed much smoother sailing to the semis. The 2009 U.S. Open winner smoked Donald Young, Denis Kudla, Fernando Verdasco, and Borna Coric in straight sets before getting the best of John Isner 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-2 on Tuesday afternoon. Del Potro is now an amazing 42-10 this season and well on his way to his first Nitto ATP Finals appearance since 2013.

“It could be another big battle, as the Wimbledon match was,” the third-seeded Argentine said of Friday’s upcoming date with Nadal. “I like to play always [against] the No. 1 of the world, doesn’t matter the tournament or the conditions or the weather. I just have the chance to play the greatest on this sport, and it’s amazing for me.”

Nadal also relishes the challenge.

“(It) will be a big challenge,” the Spaniard assured. “(It) a [matchup in which] we know each other very well. I know he’s playing well. I know that I will have to play at my highest level to keep having chances of success.

(It) will be a very tough one. In Wimbledon he’s a great player; he’s a great player on grass. He’s a great player everywhere. But the challenge of playing him on hard, of course, is even higher for me personally than playing against him on clay–like happened in Roland Garros. Even [there] I had a very lucky first set.”

Even on hard courts, though, this has become a favorable matchup for Nadal–especially given his current form (45-3 overall this year, 10-0 on hard courts this summer). The top seed’s relentless topspin works well to the Del Potro backhand, which is a much-improved shot but still vulnerable. Nadal’s key weapon against the world No. 3 is his down-the-line forehand, as Del Potro frequently runs around his backhand and leaves the deuce side of the court wide open. Nadal was hitting that shot exceptionally well throughout the marathon against Thiem.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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