U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Del Potro

It will be a rematch of last year’s U.S. Open semifinals when Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro meet again at the same stage on Friday for their third encounter in the last three Grand Slams and fourth in the last five majors.

Nadal has extended his lead in the head-to-head series to 11-5 with three consecutive victories and a 7-2 record in their last nine matches since losing three in a row to Del Potro back in 2009–including a 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 beatdown in another U.S. Open semifinal showdown. The world No. 1 prevailed 3-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 in last summer’s semis in New York City, dominated 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 at the French Open this spring, and survived a 7-5, 6-7(7), 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 Wimbledon thriller.

A 17th chapter in this rivalry was almost postponed, as Nadal found himself on the brink of defeat against Dominic Thiem on Tuesday night (or more like Wednesday morning). The three-time U.S. Open champion outlasted Thiem 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5) in a four-hour and 49-minute battle that ended at 2:04 a.m. Nadal preceded that triumph with wins over David Ferrer, Vasek Pospisil, Karen Khachanov, and Nikoloz Basilashvili, dropping one set to both Khachanov and Basilashvili.

Del Potro enjoyed much smoother sailing to the semis. The 2009 U.S. Open winner smoked Donald Young, Denis Kudla, Fernando Verdasco, and Borna Coric in straight sets before getting the best of John Isner 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-2 on Tuesday afternoon. Del Potro is now an amazing 42-10 this season and well on his way to his first Nitto ATP Finals appearance since 2013.

“It could be another big battle, as the Wimbledon match was,” the third-seeded Argentine said of Friday’s upcoming date with Nadal. “I like to play always [against] the No. 1 of the world, doesn’t matter the tournament or the conditions or the weather. I just have the chance to play the greatest on this sport, and it’s amazing for me.”

Nadal also relishes the challenge.

“(It) will be a big challenge,” the Spaniard assured. “(It) a [matchup in which] we know each other very well. I know he’s playing well. I know that I will have to play at my highest level to keep having chances of success.

(It) will be a very tough one. In Wimbledon he’s a great player; he’s a great player on grass. He’s a great player everywhere. But the challenge of playing him on hard, of course, is even higher for me personally than playing against him on clay–like happened in Roland Garros. Even [there] I had a very lucky first set.”

Even on hard courts, though, this has become a favorable matchup for Nadal–especially given his current form (45-3 overall this year, 10-0 on hard courts this summer). The top seed’s relentless topspin works well to the Del Potro backhand, which is a much-improved shot but still vulnerable. Nadal’s key weapon against the world No. 3 is his down-the-line forehand, as Del Potro frequently runs around his backhand and leaves the deuce side of the court wide open. Nadal was hitting that shot exceptionally well throughout the marathon against Thiem.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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55 Comments on U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Del Potro

  1. Great win for Delpo; very happy for him. First set was very close, but I feel like it was a bit of role reversal for Nadal. He was the better player on paper (more winners, less UE) but delpo was better in the big points. That is usually what one says about Rafa.

    I suspect I speak for a lot of non-Nadal fans when I say I don’t know what to make of the retirement. Of course it’s his body, he knows it best. but I honestly don’t believe that he would have retired when he did had he won the first set. And that’s a problem, imo.

    • Joe Smith,

      I could just scream when I read this utter crap. Just because Fed hasn’t won lately and got knocked out here, does not make it necessary to one more time trot out there insidious conspiracy theories. The idea that if Rafa had won the first set his knee pain would have magically gone away, is just stupid.

      You just cannot leave it alone. Oh, I don’t know what to make of the retirement! Spare me! I do! Rafa would have to be in unbearable pain to quit.

      You know nothing.

    • I didn’t see all the first set, but was surprised to see Rafa lost it on a tiebreak, he looked the better player. So, once he went down a break in the second, any niggling injury became more prevalent to his comeback over five.

      • No doubt, Al, but that doesn’t mean that retiring is acceptable. Again, the pertinent question is whether Rafa would have retired had he been even in the match, as opposed to behind. If not, then imo he shouldn’t have retired when he did. That’s not being a fierce competitor; it’s being the opposite.

        Has Nadal ever retired in a match when leading or tied?

        • There are far more instances of him NOT retiring when he was down in the game. If he wanted to retire with an injury, there would not be a more opportune moment than the 6-0 lost set against thiem. You know what speaks faking an injury when you do not even take the court against nole and show up a week later for davis cup.
          I know you are trying to rub it in and i am taking the bait but what you speculate is absolute rubbish especially when rafa has fried bigger fishes after being down a set

          • I am not trying to rub anything in. I think Rafa had a great tournament and played some great tennis.
            I have said many times that Federer was wrong not to take the court against Nole at the WTF. (Why does everything I say about Nadal have to be about Federer somehow?)

            I’ll ask you the same question. Do you think Rafa would have retired had the match been 1 set apiece? Why do you think he has never retired except when he’s been behind?

          • Absolutely silly logic.. there are far fewer isntances of him behind if he is healthy and playing well. If he is injured it makes sense to not over play and aggravate the injury than to underplay and taking on the wrath of the spectators like at the aussie open.

            He retired after two rounds at the french open when i would say he was ahead because he had routed the opponents in the first two rounds.

            If it is a conditioning issue it can be fought through. If the knee gives up, do you want him to fight through a lost cause. You are talking about rafa here, not kyrgios. He does not do retirements unless ne essary and certainly not in a gs.

          • You didn’t answer the question. He easily could have won the first set, and his physical condition would be exactly the same at the end of two sets. I doubt he would have retired in those circumstances, and I suspect you agree.

            And your reasoning is exactly why people ridicule Nadal fans for effectively thinking that if Rafa loses it must be because he was injured: a healthy Nadal won’t lose.

          • Joe, it is quite a hypothetical question. How do u know he would not have ? With the benefit of hindsight we know he did not when he was behing against thiem and karen when as per u, he would have..

            As far as ridiculing goes, in the past few months the number of instances u have picked against rafa and the reasons that you gave are subject to a whole lot more ridicule in my opinion

          • Of course I don’t know that Nadal wouldn’t have retired even tied. But I think it’s striking that (as far as I’m aware) he never has.

            Perhaps you can appreciate why it would rub some people the wrong way. It makes it seem as if Nadal will never retire if he thinks he can win the match. Imo, that’s not in the proper spirit of what retirement is about: retiring from a match is supposed to do with a player’s physical conditioning, not with how likely he is to win the match.

          • Wrong again, Joe. He knew he is not winning mebourne 14 or rotterdam 09. He played and completed it which u conveniently ignored.

          • I didn’t say Nadal always retires when he thinks he can’t win. Obviously he doesn’t.

            Very hard to compare Rafa’s condition today to AO 2014 (I’m not familiar with the Rotterdam tourney you mention). In that one he should have retired when he could barely hit the serve over the net.

          • Yeah absolutey, you are the authority on what constitutes a valid retirement or otherwise. By the way of all the retirements, please tell me of instances where a player has retired while being ahead?

          • I have no idea how often a player has retired when he is ahead. I suspect you’re right that it’s extremely rare.

            Here is perhaps a case where Federer deserves credit for never having retired from a match in 20 years.

          • Rafa did retire against Hewitt at Queens club one year, when he won the first set and then lost the second; so he did retire when both players were leveled at the score. He also retired against Dzumhur at Miami, after winning the first set, lost the second and was down 0-3 in the third, suffering from heat stroke. So, it all depended on the circumstances and how badly/painful he felt at the time.

          • Fed didn’t retire but he did withdraw from matches. He knew he couldn’t play or couldn’t win, so he withdrew. He also withdrew from playing tournaments he’s scheduled to play.He just handled things differently.

            Rafa OTOH would go out there to try, and only retired when he really couldn’t continue.

          • Vmk1,

            Thanks for some common sense and reason. I said what I had to say and then left because I would have said some things that would have been worse.

            IIt just boggles the kind that this trash talk goes on all the time with Rafa. I am glad that he did not risk more serious injury by continuing to play. He said in his presser that he felt a pain with a certain movement this time. He obviously could not be competitive.,
            Whatever he does will be picked apart by some Fed fans when can’t handle their guy’s problems. So they have to go after Rafa.

            It’s like an obsessive sickness. I hope Rafa recovers soon. That’s all I care about.

            Haters gonna hate.

        • What kind of question is that? Rafa started having knee problems in the first set & called a trainer. He lost a tb. He played badly in the 2nd set and then called a halt. He’s more likely to retire these days when he’s injured and knows he can’t win. Maybe with age comes wisdom. In the 2009 Rotterdam final vs Murray he finished the match even though he couldn’t move and he and everyone in the stadium knew it was hopeless. 2010 AO quarters vs Murray he retired down 2 sets and 0-3 at Toni’s urging and absolutely hated doing it. 2011 Rafa pulled a groin muscle in the AO quarters, 1st set vs Ferrer, but finished a hopeless loss despite Toni screaming at him to retire. He retired in the 5th set vs Marin in AO this year but in last year’s WTF he finished the match v Goffin even though he knew he was pulling out of the tournament either way “because it was the worst he’d ever felt on a tennis court and he didn’t deserve that”.

          My guess, fwiw, is that he retired today because he’s hoping to recover in time for Davis Cup in a few days. If he’d won the first set, I don’t know. Watch his presser. I expect he’ll be asked about it.

          • Ramara, if you’re right then Rafa’s retirement today is comparable to Fed’s declining to take the court against Novak in WTF (both having to do with wanting to play DC). Again if you’re right, I don’t agree with either decision.

          • I watched the presser. I think I was wrong. The subject did not come up but I’ll be very surprised if Rafa plays DC this weekend. He did say that his problem is tendonitis but the pain was the result of a “bad movement” which made it worse than his normal tendonitis. It happened early in the first set.

          • Fed totally avoided the WTF final, whilst Rafa was out there competing in this SF, and Joe is saying they’re comparable??

            Rafa injured his knee during the match, then he retired, if he hadn’t injured his knee, you think he would retire, just because he wanted to concentrate on DC??

            What are you talking about??

          • Rafa won’t play DC when his knee isn’t well. He won’t force himself to play for his country when he’s likely to lose. He would rather his healthy teammates do the job, for they may have better chances of winning the matches with fit and healthy body.

          • Anyway, Spain is not going to win the tie, PCB, Agut are not in top form; the doubles of Feli and Granollers will not have easy time vs Mahut/Herbert. Now that Rafa is injured, it’s even worse.

            Spain not having the best team this year, a pity, as it’s the last time they’re playing in the old DC format, will be meaningful to win it for the last time. Of course other DC teams would think the same too.

        • A very nice article on Nadals competitiveness and perspective towards wins and losses.

          http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2018/09/rafael-nadal-2018-us-open-semifinal-juan-martin-del-potro/76806/

          If you are saying he is not a fierce competitor. its clear you are just not a fan. Its a matter of liking someone vs not. A lot of us Rafa fans are well aware of his unyielding spirit as well as his limitations with injuries. He has lost a 188 matches and we arent saying everytime he loses he is injured. Its a statement often non Rafans make. No we are just saying he ended up being injured in a significant amount of critical matches he could have won. “Could have” not saying “Should have”

          Rafa says the same thing. its not about winning or losing its about fighting. Yes he has retired in some, carried on in some to the finish but it was never about only winning or losing. He says he knew what happened and tried to either cope with it or see if it improves somehow. We can sit here and be judgemental and for a guy that grinds 5 + hours and overcomes extreme exhaustion. choosing for himself to say ok this is just not going to work today isnnt a bad thing. Retiring less than say 10( I am assuming) in almost 1000 matches doesnt make him any less of the fiercest competitor. its not for no reason his peers caled him the best fighter in the game.

          Again as fans, we all know Rafa and Fed (and including Djok) are at the later end of their careers and yes as a Rafanatic I would want him to atleast scrape through and equal Fed’s 20 and yes I wouldnt want Djokovic to close in too easy. Its just a fans mindset.

  2. I am sure the match with Thiem did not help. While I was happy to see him pull out the win initially, I asked myself – at what cost?

    ESPN showed Rafa’s presser. He really looked gutted. He came here hoping to defend his title. You could see it in his eyes. And what a show he put on! Thrilling the crowd with his comebacks. But it came at a cost.

    I hope he can take care If the knee and recover. The ovation he got when he walked off the court and said good bye, brought me to tears! My fellow New Yorkers love him and appreciate what he has given us.

    There is simply no one else like him.

  3. I’m so bummed for Rafa that he had to retire. He had to retire from both hardcourts slams this season.

    Given the nature of the Ashe court and all the intense defending he had to do in the tournament, the continuous oppressive conditions, and his recent history of knee problems, I can’t say that I wasn’t concerned for Rafa’s risk of injury and retirement.

    I wasn’t available to watch the match. Was it one specific moment where the injury occurred? Or does it seem like it was building over time?

    • It’s been building over the course of the tournament. Rafa called the trainer and had tape put on during the first set. Some games later he’d pulled the tape off, but called the trainer again early (I think) in the 2nd set and got a heavier tape job. The belief so far is that it’s tendinitis, not an acute injury.

  4. Absolutely right. It also goes against everything the game is trying to accomplish with speeding up the game, make attacking play more rewarding, etc. They have also been very inconsistent with using the shot clock.

  5. Rafa should just go rest and recover, and for goodness sake, go and improve the serve. When his serve was working fine last year, he was doing well and not having to grind to win his matches, at least not that many. This year, he practically grind through those tough matches at Wimbledon (vs Delpo and Djoko)and USO (all his matches from R3-QF); at AO too vs Schwartzman and then Cilic. Without a good enough serve, it’s hard for him to play more offensive tennis and shortens points, and that means he has to grind more often, leading to injuries. With injuries he couldn’t train well, his serve will suffer, his BH will suffer (I notice he hardly hit his BH CC this USO, probably couldn’t put more weight on his knee for fear of injuries). his game will suffer and he ends up playing grinding tennis all over again. It’s a vicious cycle; he needs to get out of it quick.

    • We’ll see. But I think that pulling the plug on his 2016 season was one of the best decisions he ever made. It gave him the training time he needed to improve his serve and backhand and get his forehand working again.

      I’d love to see DelPo win the final, but it might be better for Rafa if Djoko does. Maybe he’d be less inclined to fight for the year end #1.

      • Well if Delpo wins, Delpo may also become no.1 late on! Do you know their race points aren’t that much differences?

        Rafa has 7460 race points and he’s most likely to skip Beijing and Shanghai. Delpo now has 3710 race points, if he wins USO he will leapfrog both Fed and Djoko to become no.2 in the race. He’ll have 5710 race points, Djoko would then have 5645 race points and Fed 4800.

        So, both Delpo and Djoko will have chances to become no.1, and it depends on how well they do during the Asian swing and indoor HC swing. As for Rafa, if he recovers and trains well, he may still retain his no.1 if he plays and wins one or two of the indoor HC titles. The Vienna tournament director may get his wish of having Rafa to play there, if Rafa skips the Asian swing totally.

        As I said, Rafa needs his good serve; and if he’s well rested and recovered, while others are battling out there, he may be physically fresher when he comes back and thus will have his chances of winning again.

        He really is not playjng badly even if he has to battle for four five sets. So, with proper rest and recovery, and playing BO3 thus not as much grinding necessary unlike BO5, he may be in better position to win.

        • Lucky…I think Novak will end year as no 1 and Rafa will be 2. This maybe the year the no 1 has least number of points…around 9000 max..Rafa will not play mostly for a month now…if Novak wins uso he will be only 1000 behind in the race and it depends what all he cleans up later between Beijing Shanghai Paris and wtf. It’s not tough for him at all

          • Rafa will have 1100 more points than Djoker if Djoker wins USO, I am taking out last year gained points. I think it will all boil down to who wins WTF. I think at the end of year Fed will be 4.

            I dont think 1 and 2 will matter a lot to Rafa . He should be healthy for AO.

          • Yes but if Rafa ends year as no 1..he ties fed for year end no 1..same with Novak…

            Imagine the 3 best of this gen all have 5 year end no 1

          • Sanju, I doubt Djoko would clean up all those events, esp when he has to play Laver Cup which is just one week before Beijing.

            Djoko while able to win his matches, wasn’t convincing in his wins, unlike his 2011 or 2015. I won’t be surprised that Delpo beats him to win the USO here.

            Delpo has yet to play his best match here at the USO, and I feel he’s the one other than Rafa who could beat this Djoko. Djoko was defending and retrieving and doing his usual of moving his opponents left and right to extract errors. Djoko is very fortunate with the draw, and has Millman instead of Fed, has Kei instead of Cilic in his QF and SF respectively. It’s just like at Wimbledon, he had Kei and not Delpo as his QF opponent.

            I think Delpo will bring his best tennis in the final; I do feel Rafa frustrates Delpo with the way Rafa could neutralize Delpo’s serve and FH. He losing to Rafa at all their recent slam matches would cast doubts in Delpo’s head. Of course facing Djoko in a final is nothing easy, a daunting task, but at least the last time Delpo lost to Djoko at a slam was long time ago. They had not faced each other in 2018 before the USO. Rafa retiring in the SF helped Delpo to save some precious energy.

            I think it’s 50:50 between Djoko and Delpo in the final. Regarding Beijing and Shanghai, Shanghai is a quick court and Fed and Delpo may not make it easy for Djoko to win there.

            As I said earlier, Rafa wasn’t playing badly despite not having a good serve, so if he has sufficient rest and recovery for his knee, works on his serve, he may come back during the indoor HC swing and does some damage when he’s physically fresh while the others may not, after battling through the Asian swing. We’ll see, I’m not convinced that Djoko is back to his conquering self.

  6. I think Rafa, Djoko, Delpo and Fed will be top four in whichever order by year end. It looks right finally with Delpo replacing Murray inside top four. Sasha, Dimi simply not good enough to stay in top four esp if they can’t win slam or reaches a slam final.

    If Delpo wins the USO, then it’s like 2012 all over again with the top four each winning a slam. Delpo deserves a stint at no.1 and winning another slam, for all those sufferings he had gone through and for being the player who had beaten a no.1 player the most time (10 times) not being no.1 himself.

  7. Three times in the past 1.5 year I had emotionally invested in Rafa for a tourney n all 3 times i was left with a void..2017 ao , 2018 wimby , 2018 uso. Fed had never beaten him at a slam since 2007 n Rafa fought all adversity n reached the final at ao 2017, was up a break in final set , was aiming double career slam n fed took it away from him by playing brilliant . At 2018 wimby , Rafa was playing well n was a tad unlucky to play djoko under closed roof and external circumstances played against him. At 2018 uso, injury did him in.

    I think I should not emotionally invest in any slam and just see what happens.

    • Yeah. Rafa retired from two HC slams this year, not a good sign. I guess he really really needs his good serve so that he can at least win some cheap points or at least be in an advantageous position to be able to execute a more aggressive game.

      He’s always hitting his first serve into the net, and his second serve was predictable, unlike last year. He has to work so hard to win points, and hes already doing well by reaching SF at both Wimbledon and USO without a good serve.

      We have to wait and see what happens going forward. Its better not to set any high expectations, that way we wont be so disappointed. I can’t imagine how disappointed Rafa is, when he has to face such disappointments so often in his career.

      • During the Thiem match the commentators were discussing Rafa’s body. Darren Cahill said that Rafa has a great tennis physique, but the parts he’d want are his mind and heart. Me, I’d take his spirit. Like a phoenix Rafa will rise again. He loves what he does and, almost as much, he loves to see other people succeed. As he said after the Thiem match, it’s not about winning or losing, it’s about giving your best.

  8. Woke up to see the result😢
    Rest up and heal rafa darling!
    As for those casting aspersions apart from the obvious trolls ie Joe and al why don’t the pair of you just sod off!you both have been derogatory about rafa for months now starting at rg.
    Vamos Delpo for the title!

    • Yes Amy when their own fav is doing far worse…they talk more about Rafa n less about fed. Guess dislike n grudge for Rafa is more than love for fed. Hehe

      • Sanju, I regularly comment on Fed’s matches. I give credit to his opponents for their deserved wins, and I don’t make excuses for him when he loses.

        Fed is not playing any more in this tournament, so I don’t have a lot to say about his play right now.

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