It will be a rematch of last year’s U.S. Open semifinals when Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro meet again at the same stage on Friday for their third encounter in the last three Grand Slams and fourth in the last five majors.
Nadal has extended his lead in the head-to-head series to 11-5 with three consecutive victories and a 7-2 record in their last nine matches since losing three in a row to Del Potro back in 2009–including a 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 beatdown in another U.S. Open semifinal showdown. The world No. 1 prevailed 3-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 in last summer’s semis in New York City, dominated 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 at the French Open this spring, and survived a 7-5, 6-7(7), 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 Wimbledon thriller.
A 17th chapter in this rivalry was almost postponed, as Nadal found himself on the brink of defeat against Dominic Thiem on Tuesday night (or more like Wednesday morning). The three-time U.S. Open champion outlasted Thiem 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5) in a four-hour and 49-minute battle that ended at 2:04 a.m. Nadal preceded that triumph with wins over David Ferrer, Vasek Pospisil, Karen Khachanov, and Nikoloz Basilashvili, dropping one set to both Khachanov and Basilashvili.
Del Potro enjoyed much smoother sailing to the semis. The 2009 U.S. Open winner smoked Donald Young, Denis Kudla, Fernando Verdasco, and Borna Coric in straight sets before getting the best of John Isner 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-2 on Tuesday afternoon. Del Potro is now an amazing 42-10 this season and well on his way to his first Nitto ATP Finals appearance since 2013.
“It could be another big battle, as the Wimbledon match was,” the third-seeded Argentine said of Friday’s upcoming date with Nadal. “I like to play always [against] the No. 1 of the world, doesn’t matter the tournament or the conditions or the weather. I just have the chance to play the greatest on this sport, and it’s amazing for me.”
Nadal also relishes the challenge.
“(It) will be a big challenge,” the Spaniard assured. “(It) a [matchup in which] we know each other very well. I know he’s playing well. I know that I will have to play at my highest level to keep having chances of success.
(It) will be a very tough one. In Wimbledon he’s a great player; he’s a great player on grass. He’s a great player everywhere. But the challenge of playing him on hard, of course, is even higher for me personally than playing against him on clay–like happened in Roland Garros. Even [there] I had a very lucky first set.”
Even on hard courts, though, this has become a favorable matchup for Nadal–especially given his current form (45-3 overall this year, 10-0 on hard courts this summer). The top seed’s relentless topspin works well to the Del Potro backhand, which is a much-improved shot but still vulnerable. Nadal’s key weapon against the world No. 3 is his down-the-line forehand, as Del Potro frequently runs around his backhand and leaves the deuce side of the court wide open. Nadal was hitting that shot exceptionally well throughout the marathon against Thiem.
Pick: Nadal in 4
[polldaddy poll=10098663]
who ya got?
#GOAT!!!
I have some interesting news off BG which is that he reckons as the weather cools the court is going to play faster. He says that the humidity has slowed the court down and it will get faster as it cools down..Also that it usually plays faster in the second week. What faster means is somewhat unclear!!
Rafa actually prefers somewhat faster courts. High bounces also favor him, although not so much vs JMDP since he’s tall. Less heat/humidity is going to help everyone so I think that’s pretty much a wash.
Yes I think Rafa prefers slightly faster courts as well. Don’t think it helps Nole for the court to play faster as the slower it is the better for him in terms of ros.
How long has rafa spent on court? He surely has spent the most time on court of the remaining 4 with Nole having spent the least time??!
Rafa spent the most time on court, over 15 hours and 54 min, Djokovic second most, 12h 46 min, Nishikori 3rd, 12 h 42 min, and Delpo spent the least time on court, 12 h 15 min.
Really? Nole spent nearly 13 hours on court!! Am gobsmacked! How did he manage that!!??
Matches with Fuscofics, Sandgren and Milman lasted close to 3 hours, Matches with Gasquet and Sousa lasted 2 hours. Matches with Fuscofics, Sandgren were 4 setters so it’s not a surprise they were long, match with Milman had a lot of long games so i think that’s why it was nearly 3 h
Matches with Fuscofics, Sandgren and Milman lasted close to 3 hours, Matches with Gasquet and Sousa lasted 2 hours. Matches with Fuscofics, Sandgren were 4 setters so it’s not a surprise they were long, match with Milman had a lot of long games so i think that’s why it was nearly 3 h
By playing nobodies. That’s how he’s done it.
As long as it is a long grinding 5 setter i don’t care who wins. A prospect of Nadal running 10-12 miles on a night is satisfying for me. Need to admit that heart says Delpo.
Hmm. Many expect a Nadal – Djoko final. That’s 50-50. At least one will probably lose in the semi.
Joko will left the trophy no matter who he plays
Normally I’d say that Rafa is a lock for the final since he usually wins against Delpo. But he has accumulated an awful lot of mileage already while Delpo seems to be in splendit form. I still think that Rafa will edge out a win because his mental fortitude.
Djoker has to be the favorite for the title, though. But he hasn’t been tested so far since he avoided all potentially challenging opponents. And he didn’t display a dazzling form so far. But I think that his overall chances for lifting the trophy are very good. Rafa may have done himself in by not closing out his matches sooner.
Rafa always makes life difficult for himself! I don’t understand why he has to get nervous so often, even on clay at RG! All I heard from his coach after the matches where Rafa had to work so hard to win, was ‘he was nervous before or during the match’ and ‘he’s human too’!
Don’t tell me other players are/were not nervous before an important match, but, I didn’t see a ‘nervous’ Delpo, or Schwartzman, or Thiem played badly, but rather, they just went out there to play as aggressively as possible vs Rafa for example. They somehow played their best tennis against Rafa, whether they’re nervous or not; Rafa OTOH was often nervous and then couldn’t play his best tennis!
It’s always when his back is against the wall, that he starts to fight hard to try to turn things around. I mean why when you are in trouble then you bring out your best tennis? Why can’t you play better from the get go and so finishes the job quicker and saves all those precious energy??
I simply don’t understand Rafa’s mentality, what is he so nervous about? Is it because he’s lacking in self confidence, thinking that his game is not good enough? Is he a worrier, who worries too much, worries about losing the match, worries about injuries, worries about not defending his titles?
I like Rafa’s game when he plays it like a chess game, thinking all the time how to solve problems, how to out think or out smart his opponents, how to spot weaknesses in his opponents and attacks them, etc and etc. What I dislike is his lack of self confidence, thinking that the other players are so good and so tough to beat, showing them too much respect, so much so that he gets nervous going out there to play his every match!
The reason is that Rafa’s main strength, despite having one of the best forehands ever, is actually his consistency. Rafa has never been the guy to go out there and just blast winners right from the get go. He feels his way into the match and uses his athleticism and defense to frustrate opponents. Then when the opponents least expect, he comes at them with that ferocious forehand. But Rafa’s go to pace isn’t as big, it’s just unbelievably consistent. So his version of nerves (getting the ball too short) is different from someone like Del Po (overhitting and missing).
You’re right ,its his topspin that gives him that consistency ,I think. In long rallies with an equally big hitter like Delpo, its unusual for him to make an error first.
Well said, Luckystar. This is his MAIN problem with Djoker.
His main problem with Djokovic is that the Serb is ultra-consistent. Nadal usually does not wins matches by hitting a hundred winners. He loves long rallies in which he gradually increases pressure until his opponent makes a mistake (missing a shot, throwing it short, going to the net when he shouldn’t have,…). Djokovic just doesn’t make mistakes. You have to win him each and every point (sometimes two or three times) and this does not really suit Rafa’s more defensive approach.
This surface favors Rafa waaay too much for me to realistically see Del Po winning this. Del Po will struggle to put points away, and Rafa will get everything back.
If Del Po couldn’t quite finish off Rafa at Wimbledon, then I can’t imagine it on this quicksand court. Also, on a higher bouncing and slow court like this one, it just makes Del Po’s weak backhand even more weak. His slice won’t be as effective.
Even though Rafa has had a couple long matches, he will have had 2 days of rest. Literally every single aspect of his match favors Rafa. This match is absolutely on his racquet, even more than usual!
Rafa’s unbelievable defensive prowess is really put on display on this court. And NOBODY, except a full-flight Novak, can get through Rafa’s defense on a court like this in best-of-5. It just doesn’t happen.
Sure, Del Po can win this if Rafa has a really bad night and Del Po plays his best match ever. But what are the odds of those two things happening? Way too low for me…
Rafa in 4.
Well,Thiem almost made it past Rafa! If he hadn’t made this last mistake …
still probably would have lost….
the last point wasn’t the story, anyway
👍Agreed, Ricky.
Kev, great analysis but I don’t think either of those last two things you listed need to happen for Del Potro to win.
Rafa opponents know the only way to beat Rafa is to break his amazing defense by hitting hard and fast, being aggressive from the get go and taking the ball early! They all go out with all guns blazing causing Rafa to have to fight hard for every point right from the start. Rafa however tends to start slowly and his serve doesn’t come as a savior so he naturally gets nervous about losing his serve. Then early in the second set Rafa starts to “boil” while his opponents start feeling consequences of trying to outhit Nadal. Those who can endure the physical war with Rafa without losing consistency and without dropping in level (for example; Novak) can beat Rafa in the best of 5! Adding the heat and humidity and it makes it even more difficult for them to stay in the rallies with Rafa and beat him! Wearing down his opponents is the part of Rafa’s game plan. This is why I think Rafa’s fitness is simply amazing!
Having said this, I think Delpo as well will be one of those Rafa’s victims. While Rafa can drop a set due to Delpo’s hard hitting and his own nerves, I expect Rafa to raise his level and fight back in style. Hope for Rafa’s serve to work as it would ensure him some free points, but I do not think there will be many free points for Rafa..As many times before Rafa will have to earn his victory in a hard fought match….
Dominik is young and fit and was able to counter attack Rafa! I bet he could barely walk the morning after the match.,,Delpo is not of that caliber. He will want shorter points to avoid grueling match. Rafa’s FH will be the key as Delpo’s bh although improved is his weakness…
Vamos Champ!
nats,
Great analysis! I think we know the way Rafa rolls when it comes to these big Bof5 set matches. Rafa does take time to get going and that is when his opponents want to strike. I am still amazed at how Rafa could shake off that bagel in the first set with Thiem. I would love to see Rafa get his serve working more effectively, but I do think he will once again have to work for it.
I think his FDL will be key in that match. I am just glad that we have two days to record vet from the last one!
Fasten your seat belts!
I think we need the 2 day recovery as much as Rafa!
We have two days to recover from the last one! *
Rafa on the rare occasions could come out all guns blazing – typical example is of course his FO2017! In every match during FO2017, he came out all guns blazing and we saw how scarily effective that was.
Another few examples are : USO2010; USO2013; FO2008; MC2010; Wimbledon 2008. In each of these tournaments, he hardly lost a set, all the way until the final. He was also playing more offensive tennis throughout.
He’s capable of such tennis, it’s just that he rarely could do so; when his serve isn’t working the way he (and us) hope for, that’s even more difficult to do so. However, I’ve to say, he being so nervous is getting from bad to worse, even when he’s the no.1 player and leading the race now; Moya and his team are having a hard time helping him overcoming the problem, I feel.
Rafa on clay isn’t the same as Rafa on HCs. Rafa of 10 years ago on HCs isn’t the same as Rafa of 2018! Injuries took a toll, disappointing losses of the matches he was supposed to win remain somewhere in the back of his mind, too much respect for his opponents, feeling pressure, doubts and confidence issues, and of course age, all contributing to Rafa being nervous (read: tentative or less confident) at some stage of the match. I still think Rafa played key points better than his opponents.
Also, his opponents using up their energy to fight him early in the match opens up the opportunity for Rafa to fight them back, so be it.
I would love Rafa to be more aggressive from the start but his serve deserts him more than often and he is hardly in advantage when serving. However, Rafa is still capable to find a great serve in clutch moments which is good news!
I do expect Rafa to be nervous against Delpo when Delpo starts firing aces and hitting killer forehand but I also expect Rafa to implement his tennis brain and overcome all hurdles…the victory over Thiem will definitely help…
Come on, 2013 wasn’t ten years ago! Last year at Beijing and Shanghai, Rafa was also playing more offensively on the HCs; he wasn’t grinding but played aggressive tennis to win Beijing and reached final of Shanghai.
I do acknowledge that it’s his serve that’s the major problem this year, and he serves particularly badly after breaking an oppinent’s serve, that’s something very irritating. I mean he could hold serve even serving poorly but after breaking serve, he lost his own serve! What’s about that? It happened so often it’s ridiculous!
Nadal’s had too tough a draw to be a firm favorite for this match. Bookies want you to snap up the 1.65. Odds should be 1.70 Del Potro / 2.20 Nadal but bookies know they’ll get a similar amount of wagers from punters at 1.65.
Del Potro has only dropped a set against Isner who was a very strong form line and the one that really stood out for me was the straight sets win against Coric. Del Potro can go all the way this year.
Del Potro in 5, maybe 4.
Coric?? Seriously?
Yep, Medvedev was a strong form line and Coric took care of him in straight.
Del Potro only lost 8 games. He is primed for this.
I hope Rafa proves me wrong but, somehow I don’t see him getting past DelPo this time round.
Why ? Mileage clocked ?
Went with the (favourite?) Rafa pre-tournament and I’m sticking with that.
I would like to see Delpo somehow beat Rafa & Djokovic to win this slam (hell, I’d love to see him win a 2nd slam anywhere) but I can’t quite see it happening. If he did pull this rabbit out of the hat, it’d be two miracle USO wins to his name.
On this court the ball will sit up pretty nicely for both players, but Delpo’s gonna struggle to end the points quickly enough. He may make it as competitive as the Wimby encounter, but like most, I expect Rafa will eventually wear the lumbering Argentine down over 4 or 5 tough sets.
Djokovic is surely going to have to have a bad day at the office for Nishikori to get past him again. It’s like watching the 1.0 version play the 3.0 – what advantage can Nishikori really have? I guess it’s not impossible, this Novak is not *quite* as imposing as he used to be, maybe there’s some mental fragility lurking in the back of his mind. If Nishikori did get through it’d probably make for a lousy final for the neutrals, I could see Rafa (or less likely Delpo) really toweling the poor guy up.
uso courts are slowass custom made for dull. given dull’s miraculous recovery and running capabilities it is almost impossible to hit trough dull, so delpo has a high order task ahead of him.
i read courts were made slower for americans to go deep down
Keep your mind sharp and focused, remain confident, be strong and show your warrior spirit, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DmguEfWXsAUCd_G.jpg