U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Del Potro

It will be a rematch of last year’s U.S. Open semifinals when Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro meet again at the same stage on Friday for their third encounter in the last three Grand Slams and fourth in the last five majors.

Nadal has extended his lead in the head-to-head series to 11-5 with three consecutive victories and a 7-2 record in their last nine matches since losing three in a row to Del Potro back in 2009–including a 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 beatdown in another U.S. Open semifinal showdown. The world No. 1 prevailed 3-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 in last summer’s semis in New York City, dominated 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 at the French Open this spring, and survived a 7-5, 6-7(7), 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 Wimbledon thriller.

A 17th chapter in this rivalry was almost postponed, as Nadal found himself on the brink of defeat against Dominic Thiem on Tuesday night (or more like Wednesday morning). The three-time U.S. Open champion outlasted Thiem 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-6(5) in a four-hour and 49-minute battle that ended at 2:04 a.m. Nadal preceded that triumph with wins over David Ferrer, Vasek Pospisil, Karen Khachanov, and Nikoloz Basilashvili, dropping one set to both Khachanov and Basilashvili.

Del Potro enjoyed much smoother sailing to the semis. The 2009 U.S. Open winner smoked Donald Young, Denis Kudla, Fernando Verdasco, and Borna Coric in straight sets before getting the best of John Isner 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-2 on Tuesday afternoon. Del Potro is now an amazing 42-10 this season and well on his way to his first Nitto ATP Finals appearance since 2013.

“It could be another big battle, as the Wimbledon match was,” the third-seeded Argentine said of Friday’s upcoming date with Nadal. “I like to play always [against] the No. 1 of the world, doesn’t matter the tournament or the conditions or the weather. I just have the chance to play the greatest on this sport, and it’s amazing for me.”

Nadal also relishes the challenge.

“(It) will be a big challenge,” the Spaniard assured. “(It) a [matchup in which] we know each other very well. I know he’s playing well. I know that I will have to play at my highest level to keep having chances of success.

(It) will be a very tough one. In Wimbledon he’s a great player; he’s a great player on grass. He’s a great player everywhere. But the challenge of playing him on hard, of course, is even higher for me personally than playing against him on clay–like happened in Roland Garros. Even [there] I had a very lucky first set.”

Even on hard courts, though, this has become a favorable matchup for Nadal–especially given his current form (45-3 overall this year, 10-0 on hard courts this summer). The top seed’s relentless topspin works well to the Del Potro backhand, which is a much-improved shot but still vulnerable. Nadal’s key weapon against the world No. 3 is his down-the-line forehand, as Del Potro frequently runs around his backhand and leaves the deuce side of the court wide open. Nadal was hitting that shot exceptionally well throughout the marathon against Thiem.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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34 Comments on U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Del Potro

    • Why so negative 😂 It’s your guy. Why would you write him off like that? Sometimes I feel like some of you Rafans just put down Rafa’s chances because you don’t want to jinx him 😂

  1. Let’s just try to see what happens here. Rafa did break back so it’s not like Delpo has been invulnerable. He’s fighting.

  2. Rafa just can’t capitulates the chances given!Against the big server & tough opponent like DelPo,we can’t afford to waste the chances,coz it won’t come often…

  3. Rafa was better player in the first set and managed to lose it with his sudden tentativeness…more winners, less errors and LOST the set.,.so unlucky!!!

    Vamos Champ!

  4. One set of tennis takes one hour and ten minutes; Rafa is not going to win playing like this. They’re basically grinding out there.

    I don’t think Rafa is the better player in the first set; they’re about the same but Delpo is the more offensive of the two.

    • Agree and has better serve too. he is serving first so rafa has to be careful in last game if he does not break him before. should not be repeat of 3rd set at wimby

    • I speak about stats which is officially published, all in Rafa’s favor in the first set.,, he even had an ace and Delpo didn’t.,, If Rafa was not injured he would have won the first set.,,

      Rafa will most likely retire…he is not even running on every ball.,,he is obviously in pain..,

  5. If Delpo wins this, I hope it’s Kei in the final. I give Delpo less than 10% chances of beating Djoko; he’s too buddy buddy with Djoko and will lose his killer instinct when facing Djoko.

    I think it’ll be three TB sets for Delpo here in this match.

  6. Delpo needs to employ the drop shot more, or at least a bit of variety. Nadal is so far back there that he’s absorbing most of the pace delpo is throwing at him.

    Big save of serve here for Rafa after facing two break points.

  7. Hohoho!….15 40 with a heartbreaking winners from delPo…But Rafa is Rafa!….Not budge by it & hold his serve beautifully!

    Just hope Rafa play creatively & creates more winners instead of waiting DelPo makes mistakes…

    • Yes, Nadal’s best chance here is to play aggressively and outside his comfort zone. He can’t really hurt delpo from so far back, and eventually Juan Martin just winds up for one of those FHs. Also, JM is starting to come in to net a bit, which will further help his cause.

  8. Have not been watching the match but the stats are close in every category but Rafa has converted more and saved more bps.

    At this rate it should go 5 sets.

  9. Rafa is not going to survive this when his knee has to be taped up. He’s basically doing all the running, defending the majority of the time, that’s the problem of not having a good serve to help you.

    I think his knee is giving him problem all these while hence he’s serving poorly since coming back to play the clay season. I think after the DC, he should just take the rest of the season off, he’s not doing his knee any good if he keeps on playing.

    • Maybe he should pull out of the DC because, with the Spanish lineup, I can see him playing 3 matches. It’s sad that, yet again, his body is letting him down. Maybe he should not train so much to give his body time to rest.

    • Hmmh!….I guess,this is it!…Some of us already can see this coming even after Basilashvili’s match….Oh well…

      Just yesterday i read Moya said Rafa’s knee is okay..

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