U.S. Open final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Federer

A five-team panel previews and predicts the outcome for Sunday’s U.S. Open final between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. The top two players in the world are squaring off in a second consecutive slam title match.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (2) Roger Federer

Ricky Dimon (The Grandstand): Djokovic vs. Federer is the best rivalry in tennis right now and it’s one that could be tied at 21-21 after their 42nd meeting on Sunday afternoon in New York. That will be the case if Djokovic gets the job done and captures his third major title of the year. In order to do so, however, the world No. 1 will have to beat the man who is playing better tennis these days than anyone else on this planet. There is no debate about said fact. The question is: can Federer continue to play this level of tennis against this particular opponent from start to finish in a best-of-five situation? The 34-year-old took care of Djokovic without too much trouble last month in Cincinnati, but four of their last five slam encounters have gone Djokovic’s way–including in this summer’s Wimbledon championship match. Although the top-seeded Serb has not been at his very best this fortnight, he picked up the pace in a semifinal rout of defending champion Marin Cilic and he is quite simply far better–and more motivated–at this tournament than he is in Cincinnati. A familiar result will take place: Federer comes out blazing before Djokovic breaks him down in the end. Djokovic 3-6, 7-6(6), 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.

Pete Ziebron (Tennis Acumen): Federer and Djokovic are meeting for the sixth time this year–all in finals. Amazingly, it will be Federer’s first appearance in a U.S. Open title match since 2009, while Djokovic is seeking to win his third major of the year but the U.S. Open for just the second time. The margin between the top two players in the world is very slim when they match up and this time around I put the winning probability at 50.5 percent for Djokovic and 49.5 percent for Federer. The Swiss went into this year’s Wimbledon final after playing an immaculate semifinal against Andy Murray, but this hardly mattered when he faced Djokovic for the title. Similarly, Federer’s spectacular play in the quarters against Richard Gasquet and semis versus Stan Wawrinka the last few days will not factor in when he battles the world No. 1. The two last met just three weeks ago in Cincinnati, where the only break point of eight opportunities that Federer managed to “win” was on a Djokovic double-fault. Despite the fact that Federer is serving impeccably well on the fast American hard courts, his inability to break Djokovic when he has the opportunities to do so will continue proving to be expensive and ultimately the difference in New York. Djokovic will need to defeat a vintage Federer as well as an overwhelming pro-Federer crowd. He will do so with steely determination and focus that will lead him to the title. Djokovic 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-3, 5-7, 6-3.

Steen Kirby (Tennis Atlantic): Federer hasn’t dropped a set all summer on hard courts, while Djokovic shook off any second-week cobwebs and demolished Marin Cilic to setup this mouthwatering final. Federer’s recent win over Djokovic in Cincinccati–and his trek to that title without dropping a set–should boost his confidence and aggression, though he has not beaten Djokovic in a slam in quite some time. This vintage and fresh Federer is whom I’m going with in an upset, presuming he can out shot-make his counter-punching opponent and shorten the points. Look for Federer to win what could be his final Grand Slam. Federer 6-4, 4-6, 6-4, 7-6.

Jared Pine (the Second Serb): Federer and Djokovic have separated themselves from the rest of the tennis world and the degree to which they have done so was evident in their two semifinal wins that took less than 100 minutes each. The final everyone expected ever since Federer secured the No. 2 seed–guaranteeing he would not be in Djokovic’s half of the draw–is the final that we will get. The top two players in the world right now are the only two players in tennis history to have earned 10,000 ranking points or more in at least three of the majors. Both of these players are rewriting the record books with every match they play, meaning we are in store for a historical match when these two square off. Federer has not beaten Djokovic in a best-of-five match since 2012 and has not beaten the Serb at the U.S. Open since 2009. However, Federer had not reached this stage of a hard-court slam since January 2010 before he blew past his countryman to return to the U.S. Open final. As great as Federer has been in 2015, his endurance has never been tested as none of his matches have gone to a fifth set. Meanwhile, Djokovic is a perfect 3-0 in fifth sets in 2015, winning them 6-0, 6-1, and 7-5. In fact, Djokovic’s last fifth set before that was a 6-4 win over Federer in the 2014 Wimbledon final. If this match goes five, Djokovic will prevail just as he did in their U.S. Open showdowns in 2010 and 2011. Djokovic 4-6, 7-6, 5-7, 6-3, 6-4.

Joey Hanf (The Tennis Nerds): After two blowout semifinals, tennis fans should be grateful that they once again get to witness what is currently the greatest rivalry in tennis. When Federer and Djokovic face off for the 42nd time, there will be no surprises for either player. Their styles of play compliment each other, and as Federer has said, both guys don’t have to change the way they play when they face off against one another. While Federer has looked better throughout the tournament as a whole, Djokovic was machine-like in his demolition of Cilic. This feels very similar to when each was going into the Wimbledon final, with many considering Federer to be in the better form. Still, Djokovic neutralizes many of Federer’s biggest weapons–most notably the serve. The SABR will play an important role in this match–not based on how many points Federer wins with it, but instead to see how many different return positions he uses against Djokovic. The Serb is probably the toughest player on tour to get out of rhythm, but Federer is the only player who can do so on a consistent basis. Federer will need to play some ultra-short points but also grind a few long rallies to keep Djokovic guessing. The greatest thing about this rivalry is that the better player almost always wins on that day. The atmosphere inside of Ashe should be incredible as Federer and Djokovic battle for the last major of the year. Djokovic 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(4), 7-5.

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