U.S. Open final preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Federer

The  U.S. Open title is coming down to the top two players in the world–Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. Sunday’s championship match pits the game’s best against each other at this stage of a second major in succession.

Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer will be meeting for the 42nd time in their careers when they battle for the U.S. Open title on Sunday afternoon.

The head-to-head series could not be any closer, to the extent that it may be all tied up again by the time this one ends. Federer holds a 21-20 edge after beating Djokovic 7-6(1), 6-3 in this summer’s Cincinnati final. Djokovic, however, has won three of their five 2015 encounters–including a 7-6(1), 6-7(10), 6-4, 6-3 victory in the Wimbledon championship match. The Serb is 7-6 at his rival’s expense in Grand Slams despite losing four of their first five such showdowns.
Fed Djoker
Since toppling Djokovic in Cincinnati, an on-fire Federer has not looked back. Playing without question the best tennis in the world right now, Federer has not lost a set so far this fortnight. The 34-year-old Swiss punched his ticket to the title match by disposing of Leonardo Mayer, Steve Darcis, Philipp Kohlschreiber, John Isner, Richard Gasquet, and Stan Wawrinka. Only Isner pushed him to a pair of tiebreakers and nobody else even came within 7-5 in any set.

An aggressive Federer is striking winners from all over the court and he has continued to execute the Sneak Attack By Roger (SABR) tactic–although to what extent depends on the opponent. The world No. 2 never did it against Isner for obvious reasons, but he fared well with it on occasion versus Djokovic in Cincinnati.

“For me, if it makes sense–which I think it does–I’ll use it in the finals,” Federer commented. “I used it to great effect against [Djokovic] in the tough situation at 4-1 in the ‘breaker in Cincy. We will see if the occasion presents itself. It’s got to be the right point, right frame of mind, the right place to do it. I hope I’ll have the opportunity to do it.”
Fed1
Djokovic has an opportunity to win his third major title of the year and effectively come within one match–besting Serena Williams, who was two matches away–of capturing the calendar-year Grand Slam. The top seed previously triumphed at the Australian Open and at Wimbledon to go along with his runner-up showing at Roland Garros. So far in New York he has defeated Joao Souza, Andreas Haider-Maurer, Andreas Seppi, Roberto Bautista Agut, Feliciano Lopez, and Marin Cilic–dropping sets to Bautista Agut and Lopez in the process.

“I came here with a wish and a mission: to reach the finals and fight for the trophy,” Djokovic assured. “So I got myself in that position. It’s already a great result. But I want to get that final step on Sunday and get my hands on that trophy. Obviously I’m not the only one who wants that. [A] Swiss player will be on (the) opposite side of the net. We will definitely want to have the same kind of mission.”

When the world’s two best players with the same goal collide, the result should be another instant classic. Federer is showcasing the better form, but can he sustain his incredible level from start to finish in a best-of-five situation? He has not been able to do that against Djokovic in recent times–and he will once again come painfully close.

Pick: Djokovic in 5

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42 Comments on U.S. Open final preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Federer

  1. Outcome was never in doubt in my mind. Of course it was going to be tight – it would have been, no doubt who won – but, alas, this is now the Djokovic era. Roger still great but, at his very best, on nole’s shoulder now.
    It would have been a different matter had noble limped in, in the same state as the cincy final, but the draw was kind to him and his ruthlessly dispatched Marin in the SFs, meaning there was nothing bar injury that would stop him this week-end, and Nole over Fed in 3/4 sets is pretty much where it’s at these days.

  2. I was saved the burden of staying up to watch this bore fest because of the rain delay. I watched the recording this morning before making my comments. It was a shame the spectators didn’t have a scintillating match to watch.

    Tennis is much poorer without Rafa at the top.

  3. I’m still trying to comprehend whether Federer lost the 3rd set or Nole won the 3rd set.
    Really gutted after today’s loss.

    Anyways, congrats to Nole for winning his 10th Major!!
    Atleast Roger’s SABR did some damage.

    • Commies to you abhirf. Tough loss indeed with so many chances unconverted. Nole stole the third set similar to how Rafa stole the 3rd set from Nole at the ’13 open.

      Roger couldn’t bring near the same level he had in the semis but of course so much of that had to do with Nole.

      Just great to see Federer still being a relevant force having made finals at three of the last six slams just cements his unmatched longevity.

      • Poor Henri Laconte had to fill hours with mindless chat during the rain delay. He was clearly the worse for wear – he called it tiredness lol – and was discussing Federer’s longevity. The only problem was he couldn’t pronounce ‘longevity’ : one of the other presenters had to come to his rescue.

  4. Rafa of today makes more errors than any of these guys last night…Rafa would stand no chance in the match like this with his current ROS, his movement, his weaknesses in his own service games and his mental lapses and I guess you all know that…unless you have been watching a different Rafa…

    it is easy to say Rafa would have been better than these two…that is just pure speculation and unfounded I dare say…Rafa used to do this…Rafa never made as many errors in the finals…Wait: Rafa does not get to the finals these days…you don’t sit around thinking of the glorious past…you seek answers for the future…

    but I trust Rafa will do what is necessary: among other things, seek for external help, work on his tactics and improve his serve…I hope Rafa and his team will make it happen…I just hope Rafa decided to do something about his mental strength which I dare say will involve a whole lot more than just living on the past glory…

  5. adje nole!! very very happy and relieved that he won….!
    not well enough to watch but i see that nole did manage to hit some winning lobs!! no idea why other players haven’t been doing that more to roger….
    commies to benny and abhirf and other fed fans….you still have to give him huge credit for playing this well at 34…
    what i am bummed about when i put on the bbc news today is that there was no headline saying nole beats fed..but one about nole being booed and jeered and saying that he has to earn the crowd’s support…!! very unamused at this lack of respect towards a great champion who is world number one and has double digit majors…

    • amy,

      While live blogging the match, I actually wrote a post to you. I was calling out and asking if you were up. I was talking about those lobs from Novak to counter Fed’s SABR attack and being so aggressive coming into the net.

      Maybe it was best that you didn’t see the match, though. I was not proud of my fellow New Yorkers last night. Their behavior was quite boorish. When Novak would miss a serve or double fault, they would cheer loudly. That is the one thing that I truly cannot abide. But you would also have been proud of how Novak handled it. He fought and fought throughout the match despite the crowd being against him.

      I have said that I don’t like Novak because of some behaviors at times. But watching him this year and especially last night, I had great respect for him. I have to give him credit for what he’s done this year. Well done!

      • nny, glad i didn’t see nole being booed….i hate booing crowds unless there are very good reasons ie in canada after kyrgios made those awful remarks…
        my lob remark turned out to be prescient no?? he didn’t hit a single one at wimby so am glad he managed a few good ones…any-one playing fed needs that in their armour to put doubts in his mind going to net….
        seems like bb earned his corn again…who would have thought that relationship would work?!

  6. Fed should have won. Great match though. Throughly entertaining tennis by Federer. Novak was solid as usual. Fed was a treat to watch. And the return winner in the beginning on the 2nd set from the service line? I have never seen anything like this. Hope Federer plays for a few years and continues to entertain

    • amy,

      Yes, you are a mind reader! That’s why I was calling out to you during the match, even though I realized that you were most likely asleep. I don’t know why the crowd got so intense, but I will tell you that at times it reminded me of a soccer match. I think abroad it’s called football. Novak would shake his fist at the crowd and get in their face after he hit a winner. The worst was in that second set, when the crowd seemed to be behind Fed so that he wouldn’t go down two sets. Novak fought off a few set points despite the crowd, but in the end he was broken and Fed won the second set. I wondered if he could regroup for the third set. That’s exactly what he did by breaking Fed in the first game. He showed a lot of poise and sheer guts in that match. It’s not easy when you have the crowd against you.

      It’s interesting that after the match JMac and PMac were talking about maybe there being a time when Novak will have the crowd on his side. They said, what does he have to do. So they were aware of it. But winning is the best revenge.

      Did you get to see a replay of the match?

  7. Amy: Much of the time Djokovic brings the opprobrium of the crowd upon himself. A classic example was during the 2nd set at 4:5 when he saved multiple break points to level at 5 all.. He gave vent to a vulgar showboating display – screaming at the top of his lungs with a manic look in his eyes and beckoning the crowd to applaud his feat as if he’d actually won the match..

    In fact his level had dropped in this set and the stats show Federer raised his apart from his failure to convert BP opportunities and to win more points from ND’s second serve.

    Fed’s high risk strategy failed to work in this match largely due to poor execution at crucial moments.

    • ed, i am not blind to nole’s faults but it must be very hard to play in front of a huge crowd which is so pro-fed….
      given the way that the crowd has got to him in the past i think you have to give him some credit for managing to get through without a really major melt-down…
      these maniacally pro-fed crowds are a real turn off IMO….
      i actually struggle to understand quite what is behind their blind adulation….it is SO extreme!!

      • amy,

        Do you remember what happened with Novak in 2008 at the USO? He and Andy Roddick had words publicly. Then Novak beat him in the quarterfinals, but made the mistake of going after Roddick even in victory during his on court post match interview. The sound of 20,000 New York fans booing let him know that they did not appreciate what he said. Novak made a big mistake. But he learned from it. Today he would not do that. He’s grown up a bit.

        Novak does have his faults, as you acknowledge. I have had issues with him in the past. But I thought the crowd was really just over the top with their insane support for Fed. I guess they really want him to win another slam. I don’t understand it, never have, never will. For myself, I feel that Fed’s had his day. Now this is Rafa, Novak and Murray’s time. If Fed does manage to win another one, then good for him. But I don’t know that it’s going to happen because of what we saw yet again last night.

        The one thing I cannot tolerate is when the crowd applauds and cheers when any players misses a serve, double faults or misses a shot. I have seen it happen in other slams at other times. Last night it seemed particularly mean-spirited. Not good.

  8. I watched the match and have to agree with most opinions here… neither were at their best even though there were spectacular points and some drama.

    Congrats to Nole, fully deserved. Rafa’s being at 50% for more than a year has made things a little easier but even so, 3 slams in a year!

    Again impressed with Fed at his age. It is true that he was never quite as tough mentally as rafa and as nole has become… this was part of what made him vulnerable to rafa.. don’t know whether this is due mostly to an easy first part of his career… or mostly due to more personal characteristics of his. Still, gotta admire him for what he can accomplish despite this. Few names will continue to mean ‘tennis’ for a long time like ‘Federer’. (Don’t flame me: I am still an ardent rafan, and rafa’s name too will mean ‘tennis’ for a long time.)

  9. #Tignor

    “Djokovic’s second U.S. Open and 10th major title will go down as a signature achievement, and perhaps his most impressive. He held off a charging Federer, 19 break points, and a tsunami of booze-filled humanity.”

    “For now, in this individual sport, no one represents the stubborn spirit and ultimate worth of the individual the way Djokovic does. Again he was the man alone in the arena; and again he was the one who walked out of that arena a winner. ”

    http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2015/09/lions-den/56324/#.VfbXfxGrSUl

  10. Interestingly the third set stats for each of them were closer than I thought at the time – apart of course from BP conversion and ineffectual net play from Fed. There were some horrors in this department when he repeatedly missed attempted volleys sending them smashing into the net.

    Not their finest hour for either of them. It will be interesting to see if Djokovic continues to go on the rampage for the autumn swing or decides to take it easy. I’m guessing the former in his quest to break more records but the signs are there he could be suffering from match fatigue.

  11. (if you don’t like long post please skip, I haven’t the time and inclination right now to make this one shorter 🙂 just typed it fast)

    As to Nole seeming fried..

    We have seen glimpses of this over the last years now and then and more often lately. I find this interesting. He used to have his health issues prior to mid-2010. In the same years he used to be mentally much weaker. So the new skills he learned, such as self-talk, visualization (I’m sure that’s part of the package), meditation, yoga, disciplined lifestyle, etc…. have made a huge difference. Yet… they are add-ons… tools he uses for the sports / fame / money goals he is pursuing. Nothing wrong with that. But, they are still add-ons. So I wonder how differently these disciplines (meditation, yoga, for example) would have helped him with mental strength if he had been inclined to integrate them into his way of life in a deeper way. I mean, as would someone who adopts them for the more usual reasons, to find increasingly deeper harmony in his mind and between the mind and the body, and such…

    These thoughts come in part from watching his extremely angry outburst on court when he gets emotionally heated up. E.g. the incident with the ball boy. I understand that a player can get that worked up in a match at the top level. But has he been practicing those disciplines for the purpose of increasing harmony inside and an increasingly peaceful mind for five years now then I think his outburst would be fewer, less over-the-top etc.

    If I am right about this speculation, then it is a bit paradoxical, no? If Nole wanted to get even more ego-results out of his practices and nearly monastic every-day discipline… he could have achieve this by pursuing these practices first and foremost for their own sake, to quiet the ego a little and find more harmony between it and the rest of who he is. I wonder how many of these disciplines he will keep after he hangs up his racket.

    Human, all too human.

  12. It wasn’t a great match in terms of quality, but I thought it did have its moments. Novak came out and played extremely well in that first set. He did well to rebound quickly from a nasty fall. He broke Fed a few times in just one set. That didn’t happen in all Fed’s previous matches.

    However, in the second set I though that Fed started playing better and his aggressive tactics were working well. Novak had to struggle mightily to hold his serve more than once. I thought the crowd really helped to energize Fed. He had to win that second set.

    But in the third set I thought that Novak regrouped well to start out with a break. He seemed to be in control again. I will say that I never thought he would have so much trouble closing out the match. Maybe it was some nerves, but also Fed just kept coming and didn’t quit. Maybe it was kind of too little, too late but I give him credit for that.

    I just want Rafa to work on his game and come back better in 2016. Tennis needs him and so do his fans.

    • NNY: I am allergic to Novak. Period. But that was not why I picked Federer for the win.

      I agree he did well to keep his emotions and temper in check when he was heckled. I also appreciated the way he showed respect to Federer by not going in for his usual triumphalism when he won.

      Federer must be bitterly disappointed but he seemed very calm and accepting and graciously acknowledged he’d been outplayed. Not sure whether it was wishful thinking on his part or simply bravado but I do wonder if we will ever see him again in the later stages of a USO.

      For that reason alone I am pleased I stayed up till 5a.m to watch the match. It will seem strange when he is gone.

      re: The crowd. It only takes a relatively small number of badly behaved hooligans to make an awful lot of noise and sound like the whole stadium is booing and hissing. And there is always somebody making their voice heard by calling out at crucial moments.
      I don’t understand why the marshalling people and security men don’t eject them immediately.

      • I’d wager a bet most of hecklers don’t give a damn who wins. They are just out to stir up trouble. Full blooded Fedfans are a race apart. Both my best friend and my sister are complete devotees and think it’s weird I worship Rafa. We have a pact not to discuss the subject.

      • ed,

        I know your feelings about Novak. I respect that absolutely. But even the ESPN commies were talking about the intensity of the noise from the crowd, especially in that tight second set when Fed could not afford to go down two sets. For me it did sound like almost everyone was cheering for Fed.

        I actually understood why Novak got in their faces and shook his fist and screamed. For one thing, it let out some of the pressure he was feeling. But there were some moments where he let the crowd know how he left. I can’t criticize him for that. The one thing that I truly cannot abide is any crowd cheering when a player double faults or misses a serve or a shot. The crowd did it and there were enough to make it quite audible. That I find so gross and boorish.

        Maybe it was a lot of Fed fans or those who wanted Fed to win for whatever reason. But it was ugly and nobody deserves that. I do agree that security should eject those who call out to disrupt players. Someone did that late in the match when Novak was serving.

        I understand what you are saying about Fed. I think that I am allergic to Fed! There is so much that I do not like about him and some of his fans are right behind. But there was something poignant about watching him sitting there after yet another loss. It’s obvious that he wants one more slam. He keeps on trying. It will seem strange when he’s gone.

        I think this was a match worth watching, even if Rafa wasn’t there.

  13. I don’t get the blind adulation for Roger either. Djokovic can’t understand why he doesn’t gain the affection of fans with all he’s achieved but as far as Rafa and Roger fans are concerned he is just encroaching on their patch and they want him to just go away.

  14. Yeah and nadline10 thinks that any match not involving Nadal is a snoozefest, but she couldn’t provide any evidence to support this claim.

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