Shanghai quarterfinal expert picks

Chris:  Nothing focuses and motivates Djokovic better than a little adversity, which arrived last week when he lost his No. 1 ranking. By far the most impressive of Shanghai contenders in the early rounds, he has looked disciplined and relentless in losing just eight games. Neither “disciplined” nor “relentless” has described Monfils throughout his career. He did score a solid upset over Roger Federer, but so have players like Sergiy Stakhovsky and Daniel Brands this year. Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 8-0, most of it coming on hard courts like these. Djokovic in two routine sets.

Ricky: Djokovic beat Rafael Nadal for the Beijing title last week and the Serb is showing no signs of slowing down. Blowouts of Marcel Granollers and Fabio Fognini were both ruthless performances. Monfils is a more difficult opponent especially because of his defense and also thanks to his shot-making capabilities, but he is not consistent and never has been consistent enough to beat Djokovic. On a court that is playing relatively fast, the world No. 2 should have too much offense for Monfils’ defense. Djokovic in two routine sets.

Florian Mayer vs. (7) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Chris: Beware of being Spanish and facing Mayer in Shanghai. The unremarkable German knocked off Nadal at this event a few years ago and he upset world No. 4 David Ferrer on Thursday to reach the quarterfinals. Tsonga has regrouped impressively from a recent injury absence and a second-round loss in Tokyo, halting former nemesis Kei Nishikori in the previous round. The Shanghai courts are playing faster than, which should help him score a fourth straight win over Mayer. But his biggest advantage?  He’s not Spanish. Tsonga in two tight sets.

Ricky: Tsonga and Mayer just squared off earlier this fall in Metz, where the Frenchman dropped the first set but had no trouble taking the next two. He is 3-0 against Mayer and has won six of their seven sets. Court surface should also be a considerable factor in this one, just as it was in Metz, because only something very slow would give the German a better than average chance in this matchup. Tsonga looked good after a nervous start against Nishikori, so he should be playing with confidence. Tsonga in two tight sets.

(6) Juan Martin Del Potro vs. (15) Nicolas Almagro

Chris: They never had met until Tokyo, and now they will meet twice in two weeks. Both men have survived third-set tiebreakers en route to the quarterfinals, Del Potro needing to escape a zoning Philipp Kohlschreiber and Almagro finding the courage to stun world No. 6 Tomas Berdych. While Del Potro received a walkover after his marathon, Almagro plays a second straight top-eight opponent a day after his. This quarterfinal intrigues the most of the four, especially since last week’s preview extended to two tiebreakers before the Argentine slipped through. Almagro has more momentum, but his elongated swings and questionable stamina (physical and mental) raise red flags ahead of what should be his second consecutive tense encounter on a fast court. Del Potro in three sets (loses the second).

Ricky: Del Potro got a huge and probably needed break in the form of Tommy Haas’ withdrawal. The Argentine is coming off a long week in Tokyo and his grueling test against Kohlschreiber could not have helped. He is also dealing with a reported fever. Will the day of rest be enough? Maybe not, given Almagro’s sudden surge in current form. The Spaniard reached the Tokyo semis and his two-tiebreaker match against Del Potro was arguably the best of the tournament. Thursday’s win over Berdych combined with Del Potro’s potential vulnerability should inspire Almagro to get over the hump this time. Almagro in three sets (loses the first).

(8) Stanislas Wawrinka vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Chris: In theory, this matchup should be fascinating as well. Not far removed from his first major semifinal at the U.S. Open, Wawrinka has the weapons to fluster Nadal:  a heavy serve, an authoritative backhand, and a defiant attitude against elite opponents. But the statistics cannot be ignored. Nadal has won all 22 of the sets that they have played–nine of them on hard courts–and he dispatched Wawrinka routinely on this court three years ago. To no surprise, the Spaniard has not found his best form during the post-U.S. Open fall season. Also to no surprise, he continues to find ways to win. Wawrinka needs a fast start to give himself belief that he can compete in this matchup. He should take a small step forward. Nadal in three sets (loses the first).

Ricky: Is it really that preposterous to predict a Wawrinka victory in this one? Other than their past history against one another, no. Admittedly, their head-to-head record is glaring; but only five of Wawrinka’s 10 losses have come on hard courts and just two have come during the fall swing–traditionally Nadal’s worst time of the year. The Swiss is a much different player since a 2007 loss in Paris and 2010 setback at this same Shanghai event. He is in the midst of his best season on tour and it is tantalizingly close to being that much better, but five-setters against Djokovic in Melbourne and New York both went the Serb’s way. Wawrinka is due for a signature win to cap off his 2013 campaign, and there is no reason why it can’t come against opponent who is just 6-3 lifetime in non-retirement matches in Shanghai and who almost lost to Fognini last week before getting routined by Djokovic. Wawrinka in three sets (loses the second).

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