Rafael Nadal and Stanislas Wawrinka will be going head-to-head for the 11th time in their careers when they collide in the quarterfinals of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on Friday night.
Nadal is a perfect 10-0 lifetime against Wawrinka, including 5-0 on hard courts, and the Spaniard has never even dropped a single set. They have faced each other twice this season, with Nadal cruising 6-2, 6-4 in the Madrid final and 6-2, 6-3, 6-1 in the French Open quarters. The No. 2 seed has advanced this week with straight-set victories over Alexandr Dolgopolov and Carlos Berlocq. Wawrinka booked his spot in the last eight by taking out Kevin Anderson in a third-set tiebreaker and Milos Raonic in straights.
Why Nadal will win, by Hasan Murad:
It is true that Nadal has a poor record in Shanghai (8-3), but given the miracles he has produced this year (67-4 record) that record is trivial. Defying odds, Nadal was able to vanquish the demons that had haunted him for nine years at the Cincinnati Masters–so there is no question he can do the same in Shanghai. Encouragingly, in his two victories so far the Spaniard has shown marked improvement from his lackluster showing in Beijing while also looking more energized and motivated. He has looked far more assured in his service games, yet to face break point, and he is dictating play more frequently with his vicious forehand.
Wawrinka has indisputably leapfrogged his level to new heights this year, but it remains to be seen whether his potent backhand can withstand the barrage of ferociously spun forehands from Nadal. The world No. 1 has never dropped a set against Wawrinka in 10 career meetings (five of them on hard courts) but this might change here. Wawrinka, though, is not playing at the same level he was at the U.S Open. Nadal is vigilant about this challenge and he will come out of the gates firing on full throttle to pile the pressure on early and often.
Pick: Nadal in two tight sets
Why Wawrinka will win, by Ricky Dimon:
This may be a different Nadal than in year’s past given his ridiculous current form, but that does not discount the fact that the Asian swing is his worst time of year. For example, he is 6-3 lifetime in three appearances at this Shanghai event in matches that did not end in retirement. Nadal is still playing stellar at the end of his hard-to-believe 2013 campaign, but the start of the fall season did not go particularly well. The current world No. 1 almost lost to Fabio Fognini in Beijing then got handled in routine fashion by Novak Djokovic in the title match.
Can Wawrinka capitalize? Like Nadal, the Swiss is not quite as on fire as he was at various points throughout this year–but he is still on course to wrap up the best season of his career in impressive fashion. Wawrinka’s scalp of Raonic was an especially outstanding one given that the Canadian captured the Bangkok title and finished runner-up to Juan Martin Del Potro in Tokyo. One-handed backhands are generally vulnerable against Nadal, but Wawrinka owns one of the best in the business and it should hold up against his opponent’s spin especially on a hard court amidst night conditions. He has never done it before, but Wawrinka has the big serve and firepower off both wings required to defeat Nadal.
Pick: Wawrinka in three
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