Shanghai final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Federer

It will be the 38th installment of arguably the greatest rivalry in tennis history when Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer meet again in the title match of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on Sunday afternoon.

Nadal is leading the head-to-head series 23-14, but Federer has narrowed the gap to the tune of four consecutive victories–including three in 2017. Prior to this stretch, the 36-year-old had never won more than two matches in a row against Nadal. On the heels of a 2015 Basel triumph, however, Federer got the job done earlier this year at the Australian Open (6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 in the final), in Indian Wells (6-2, 6-3 in the fourth round), and in Miami (6-3, 6-4 in the final).

The hard-court surface once again favors Federer, but there is some good news for Nadal. Currently No. 1 in both the rankings and the 2017 race, the Spaniard has captured two Grand Slam titles (the French Open and U.S. Open) since his early-season struggles against Federer. Nadal is also without question the hottest player on tour right now, with a current 16-match winning streak that also includes a winner’s trophy from Beijing. This week’s top seed has maintained momentum with defeats of Jared Donaldson, Fabio Fognini, Grigor Dimitrov, and Marin Cilic, surrendering only one set to Dimitrov in the process.

“(I’m) very happy,” Nadal said after beating Cilic 7-5, 7-6(3) on Saturday. “Of course I played I think a very high level of tennis. (It) was a great match again. In my opinion, he played well, too; was a great, good quality of tennis this afternoon.”

“I was hitting unbelievable shots off the ground, and against other guys they would be winners,” Cilic commented. “Or just with serving, serving well, that would be either an ace or winner, and he makes you play another shot.”

Federer fired winners past his friendly foe with surprising consistency in Australia, Indian Wells, and Miami, but the tide may have turned. Whereas Nadal is positively on fire at the moment, Federer has not been at his absolute best. The 19-time Grand Slam champion coasted through a favorable Wimbledon draw but was plagued by a back problem during the hard-court summer in Montreal (lost to Alexander Zverev) and New York (lost to Juan Martin Del Potro). Federer is much healthier in Shanghai, where he has taken out Diego Schwartzman, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Richard Gasquet, and Del Potro–the latter via a 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 decision.

“It’s nice at this late stage of the career that we still have these matches going on,” the world No. 2 said of the rivalry with Nadal. “There is only going to be a few chances for either player, and sometimes it’s just who blinks at the wrong time.”

Based on current form, Federer is more likely to blink. The Swiss has always been forced to bring out his absolute best in order to prevail in this matchup–a matchup that he once trailed 23-10. Federer was able to do that earlier in 2017, but the tables have now turned. A relatively fast hard court will level the playing field, but it won’t be enough for the No. 2 seed to stop Nadal’s incredible winning streak.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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60 Comments on Shanghai final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Federer

  1. Honestly, Congrats to R. Nadal he is an Amazing player, what he has achieved this is year is Incredible.

    R. Federer has also been great, more than great, this guy is an inspiration.

    Congrats to both guy’s, Congrats to R. Federer!
    And if you are a Rafan, you should be proud of him, he is #1 and has won many titles.

    Don’t mind my passion and some of my words.
    We have been spoilt with lot’s of Fedal and great tennis this year.

  2. Rafa is not Djoko or Fed on the HCs; he can’t win B2B HC titles, the 2013 NAHC swing was a rare exception. He could play well at Beijing but he’s not as aggressive here at Shanghai. His counterpunching mentality won’t let him win weeks after weeks on the HCs.

    Fed just doesn’t let off his guard today and plays quickly to hold off Rafa. I see the same disappointed expression on Rafa’s face like at the AO early this year. Moya please drill into Rafa’s mindset,to be aggressive and offensive at the get go, and stop wasting precious energy defending and counterpunching on the HCs. He has all the weapons to win on the HCs, he has to conserve energy and wins points quickly.

    • Roger is simply the best no excuses.
      Tennis is tennis no matter were is played, obviously some player’s prefer a particular surface but that’s no excuse.

      You were all high & mighty but now you disappoint me, stop making excuses 4 rafa’s loss, he played the best and lost that’s not entirely a bad thing.

      Respect is reciprocal.

      • Stanley, u still trying to convince ureself and others that Roger is the best?!!!

        Surface IS an excuse bcos Roger has not had great results against Rafa on clay!! So the same argument perfectly applies here!! Stop being so biased!!

        You are so happy Roger won bcos deep down u had ure doubts! So go drink a beer and enjoy the win but stop gloating, its beneath u!!

        • Monalisa, Monalisa, Monalisa, Monalisa( i am singing your name).
          Mona, R. Federer is the best and i put my money where mouth is.

          I don’t want write a lot but there are truths about that surface stuff, i believe a good player will adjust and get better on any surface if they mean business.

          I never doubted Fed’s victory, from the beginning i knew this baby was coming home and she is safe and sound.

        • Mona Lisa,

          Stanley is trolling. It’s what he does. You know how people like that need attention at any cost?

          Just pay him no mind. Nothing better to do.

    • Rafa is a good player and can win it, please stop making excuses, clay, indoors, hard, grass it doesn’t matter a good player will learn quickly, and adjust.

      How many years have rafa been playing tennis?

      Is R. Nadal a baby?

      Is he not #1?

      You guy’s are crazy with all this stupid excuses.
      He lost to a good guy and if they played again, rafa will lose.

    • Ed, i am not gloating, i hate all this denial & excuses.

      If R. Federer had lost, i won’t be trying to belittle his opponent’s victory by bring up age, court, back problems or injuries etc.

      Some of this guy’s sound like babies, who can’t handle a loss properly, i am disappointed, i thought some of this guy’s were mature but this…

  3. Though Rafa lost in straight, if he could just get into BP, situation could change and play into the mind.

    But Roger’s serve is just untouchable today, giving him the confidence to repeatedly hitting winners.

    Very possibly they would meet again in O2 final.

  4. Congratulations to Roger!! This seemed to be easy win for him!
    Glad at least Rafa made finals here but he was a little off on his game today! Thought he would have st least win a set, lol!!
    Now go rest Rafa and prepare for WTF. Take care if that knee!!

  5. Yeah. I don’t care about it now. Fed in Rafa’s head but to be honest Fed played amazing today. He is the new Djokovic of 2011 for Rafa.

  6. I’m very disappointed with Rafa’s loss today; he missed a good chance of winning Shanghai when Djoko isn’t here. I doubt he’s going to win here when all the big four guys are back.

    • He better win WTF. Thats more important. Even Roger has not won Rome and MonteCarlo even once. Does anyone speak about it? Nole ha snot won Cincy.

      I think Rafa will withraw from Basel and probbaly play Paris if knee is OK. Otherwise he might even withraw from Paris, the only risk is , he might not want to go into WTF without any tennis in last one month.

      • Rafa will never miss both events unless he is injured. He will will Basel and play Paris. Both men really want YE #1 and will do whatever it takes.

        Fed now might seriously consider playing Paris. If he’d lost today, he would have skipped but now he will try to win both Basel and Paris.

          • Relax !! He is injured, but he can skip whole of the season. He has around 2 months of rest if the need arises. Rafa should have skipped Chinese swing and Fed was right. Laver Cup and Chinese swing took a heavy toll on Rafa.

            You bet Fed would be smart. Playing so many matches together can take a toll. Fed wont play Bercy for sure.

            I think Rafa should be fine for WTF. Taping your knee is a diplomatic way of saying “NO” to Basel. Ok ?

  7. I was hopeful that Rafa could win WTF, but seeing how Fed schooled him today I have to lower by hopes. He is not beating Fed and Fed will not lose to anyone else. Rafa has to reach the final or semis to ensure No.1 ranking.

  8. YE No 1 seriously in danger now..I think Rafa is 1960 points ahead…Roger is surely winning Basel which will narrow gap to 1460 and that will leave it all down to WTF with 1500 point up for grabs. I am not sure if both will play Bercy

    • I think gap is 1600 points. even if Roger wins Basel and WTF(remember all matches give him 1500 points), if Rafa makes to the semis, Rafa will end year number 1. How is number 1 seriously in danger . Do some mathematics for god sake .

      • you do the maths man..I know what I am talking , dont tell me to do the maths 🙂

        Basel has 500 points..Bercy has 1000..if roger plays both and wins..its 1500 points there..the gap is 1960 now..if Roger plays and wins both Basel and bercy the gap is down to 460..if its down to 460..rafa has to win the final if both make the final

        • Roger aint playing Bercy. Do you think he is playing 3 weeks out of 4. If he is, let him risk everything and win everything. He will be all gassed . If year end 1 loses early in AO, to me he is a loser, Murray went thru same fate this year, rafa went thru same fate in 2011. To hell with YE number 1

          • True fedexal, players like them can’t afford to overplay if they want to stay fit and fresh for the majors. Rafa made the mistake by doing the charity exhibition with Fed at end of 2010, after his successful 2010, and he got injured at AO2011 when playing against Ferrer and blew his chances of winning four slams in a row.

  9. This victory was very important to show whatever happened at the beginning of the year wasn’t because of Nadal not playing well but Fed was better. Now since they didn’t play against eachother for a long time many expected the result could be different but it remained the same.
    Fed made my day

    • Yes, but it would be nice for Fed to show up during the clay court swing!! Let’s c what happens there!! Let’s hope Fed does not dodge it again next year!!

    • lol this comment doesn’t make much sense. The conditions at the beginning of the year were WAY different. Rafa is actually playing a lot better as compared to the start of the year but these conditions (fastest court on the tour being played indoors) is just way more suited to Fed’s game.

      Now, I am not going to lie and say I always knew this would be the outcome. Yes, because Rafa was playing so well and because Roger hasn’t served extremely well , I thought Rafa does have a good chance but I never made any predictions of Nadal winning.

      Even though some patterns of play have changed, Roger has always had the clear upper hand in these conditions when he plays his best. Anyone remember WTF 2011 ? Roger smoked Rafa 6-3 6-0 ! They meet in a month’s time in Australian Open and Rafa beats him in 4 sets! Had to think of more suitable conditions for Fed’s game than we had here. He served so well and was always in command.

      • The most important factor in the outcome of a match is the current form and in that aspect it was Nadal who was better, but assuming Fed form was not good is not correct. If you clearly watch as the tournament progressed Fed’s improved drastically. The match against Delpo going to 3sets is not an indication of just a decent form. You have to consider how good Delpo is in fast hard courts. Infact after watching semis I started believing now Fed has reached a state where he could take on Nadal, but he went a step higher in the finals. If you notice one thing Fed’s none of the service has gone to even deuce.

  10. Fed may play and win both Basel and WTF and may skip Paris. So, he may get 2000 points there. As long as Rafa wins a RR match or two at WTF, he’ll be the YE no.1. Had Rafa won here at Shanghai, things might get a bit easier for him; too bad he’s not up to the challenge today.

    I think Rafa should skip both Basel and Paris now to rest his knee; he’s not looking good now with his knee taped up when playing. It’s better to rest and treat the knee than carry on playing at Basel. I don’t understand how Rafa arrange his schedule, he seems wanting to play everything in sight; I mean the players only need to play one 500 event after USO, why is he wanting to play two 500 events? Why not play one and then play Shanghai and Paris Masters instead?

    He doesn’t need the points or the appearance fees, why plays everywhere and on the HCs instead of getting enough rest? He should trim his schedule next year, plays may be 15 events or at the max 17.

  11. Superb performance from Federer, so congrats to him and all his fans here, Rafa had no answers, better player won, still alot to play for this year, hope Rafa bounces back hes still having a superb year, and continuing to put himself into contention for titles, and is still the world number 1, i think he can sleep easily still with his achievements this year 😉

    • This comment is amazing, so much respect and you are is still hopeful.

      I like you Alison and i know rafa will bounce back, that’s what a good player does.

  12. 1. Nadal, 10465
    2. Federer, 8505

    No, way Fed can grab year end no. 1 with almost 2000 points difference. IF Fed wants to play Bercy, let him play and exhaust before WTF. If he does not play, Rafa needs to win only 1 match in WTF to end year end number 1. Its simple mathematics. Rafa can even withraw from Bercy and just focus on WTF.

    • all you saying is true if Fed withdraws from Bercy..but what if he doesnt?

      Bercy and WTF are a week apart..so Fed will get a full week rest. I dont expect him to pull out of Bercy is he wins Basel..

      • Roger can’t win Basel and Bercy both. Its real tough. Lot of players will be fighting for Bercy to make it to WTF. What if Roger playes Bercy and does not make a lot of points in Bercy. He gets neither rest nor points. He will be exhausted for WTF.

        Rafa needs to be smart here. I think he is skipping Basel for sure. If knees are a problem, he might even skip Bercy.

      • He will never play Bercy if he wins Basel, not two weeks in a row like that after how fragile his body has been. He has not cared too much much about Bercy recently. He would rather focus on WTF. It is seriously very, very, very unlikely that Rafa will not end 2017 #1.

        • I think Roger has learnt his lesson from Montreal, which he shouldn’t have played; should have just played Cinci and USO. He will skip Bercy and YE #1 will almost certainly go to Rafa now.

          If I’m wrong and Roger can run the table in Shanghai, Basel, Paris, and London, at 36, he is superman.

  13. Nadal:”It wasn’t just a precaution on my right knee, but after losing the final it’s not the right moment”.

    Its not a good news, but it can’t be that bad. Otherwise he would have pulled out of Shanghai.

      • Fake knee injury, this just an excuse, when he loses this happened, that happened, will shut up you dirty mouth.
        The closed the roof, too much noise, he is not good on hard or on indoors, the court is too fast, santa claus didn’t give me any gifts, his shoes were too tight, uncle toni or moya wasn’t there, he didn’t eat breakfast, his girlfriend made him Angry etc etc all are pure nonsense.

        M. Cilic had an injury, G. Dimitrov was not in form and had health problems.
        F. Fognini had many problems that were distracting him.

        All this player’s would have defeated Rafa in straight sets if they didn’t have their problems.

          • You are smart.
            R. Nadal is a great player but this excuses after he loses is becoming childish.

            If they were joking i would understand but every time he loses a match, one silly excuse to the other.

            When he truly has an excuse or injury, it is hard to believe it because of childish rafans.

            #Theboywhocriedwolf

          • Fedup,

            You sound like a broken record. You mean like the way Fed wasn’t really injured in the Cincy final and looked like crap at the USO?

            Turnabout is fair play. if some Fed fans are going to start that nonsense again, then we can say the same thing about Fed!

    • Oops! I think this is the last time he should really allow himself to play a full schedule. He said earlier this week that this year, his focus has not been on his body but rather on his tennis. He said it is the first time in a while that he had the chance to not think about injuries and solely focus on playing and winning.

      He should now be more selective next year. He should take out Barcelona from the clay court season

      • No VR, I feel he should not play Rome. Banque Sabadell is the sponsor at Barcelona, so Rafa is not going to skip Barcelona.

        I heard they’re going to expand the Rome tournament to be something like IW or Miami, ie played over ten days with six rounds and 96 players draw. It will be worse for Rafa should he play there.

        I am thinking about Rafa’s schedules, and if it’s me who’s doing the planning, how I will plan and arrange his schedule. I feel Rafa is still good to play and win on the HCs, (yes HCs) if he continues to improve and moves up to the net more often to dictate points there. So, if he still hopes to win at IW/Miami, he should play there next year, as on slower HCs, he has better chances of beating Fed now that Rafa’s game is much better than when he played at IW/Miami early this season. Also, Djoko may not yet get back on track by then. He should skip Acapulco after the AO to rest and prepare for IW/Miami.

        Thereafter, plays MC, Barcelona and Madrid before RG, then Queens and Wimbledon; plays Canada/Cincy and USO. If he intends to play the Asian swing, then skips Paris (and no Basel please).

        So, he’ll be playing 15 events (and 16 if he qualifies for WTF). After 2018 and/or 2019, if he’s still playing, perhaps he can just concentrate on playing slams plus warm up events, and playing on clay only elsewhere. I think his body can’t take the beatings on the HCs as he advances in age, on clay at least he still could slide or glide around.

    • Yes, thats what I said. KNEE NEEDS REST for god sake . He will skip Bercy I think. I dont think its a serious injury. Basel is out of question anyway.

  14. It happened 2-3 days back for sure. Remember the second set meltdowns earlier in the week. Damn sure something was going on then.

    Skip everything and be back for AO if need be. Who cares about No. 1 if you are not healthy.

    • I actually think that is a possibility, if injury is bad enough or worsens, and Roger’s best chance to end YE #1. It would even things out a bit, points-wise, since Roger lost the chance to play for 5500 points by skipping the clay season (something like 4680 of which Rafa took).

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