It will be the 38th installment of arguably the greatest rivalry in tennis history when Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer meet again in the title match of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on Sunday afternoon.
Nadal is leading the head-to-head series 23-14, but Federer has narrowed the gap to the tune of four consecutive victories–including three in 2017. Prior to this stretch, the 36-year-old had never won more than two matches in a row against Nadal. On the heels of a 2015 Basel triumph, however, Federer got the job done earlier this year at the Australian Open (6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 in the final), in Indian Wells (6-2, 6-3 in the fourth round), and in Miami (6-3, 6-4 in the final).
The hard-court surface once again favors Federer, but there is some good news for Nadal. Currently No. 1 in both the rankings and the 2017 race, the Spaniard has captured two Grand Slam titles (the French Open and U.S. Open) since his early-season struggles against Federer. Nadal is also without question the hottest player on tour right now, with a current 16-match winning streak that also includes a winner’s trophy from Beijing. This week’s top seed has maintained momentum with defeats of Jared Donaldson, Fabio Fognini, Grigor Dimitrov, and Marin Cilic, surrendering only one set to Dimitrov in the process.
“(I’m) very happy,” Nadal said after beating Cilic 7-5, 7-6(3) on Saturday. “Of course I played I think a very high level of tennis. (It) was a great match again. In my opinion, he played well, too; was a great, good quality of tennis this afternoon.”
“I was hitting unbelievable shots off the ground, and against other guys they would be winners,” Cilic commented. “Or just with serving, serving well, that would be either an ace or winner, and he makes you play another shot.”
Federer fired winners past his friendly foe with surprising consistency in Australia, Indian Wells, and Miami, but the tide may have turned. Whereas Nadal is positively on fire at the moment, Federer has not been at his absolute best. The 19-time Grand Slam champion coasted through a favorable Wimbledon draw but was plagued by a back problem during the hard-court summer in Montreal (lost to Alexander Zverev) and New York (lost to Juan Martin Del Potro). Federer is much healthier in Shanghai, where he has taken out Diego Schwartzman, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Richard Gasquet, and Del Potro–the latter via a 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 decision.
“It’s nice at this late stage of the career that we still have these matches going on,” the world No. 2 said of the rivalry with Nadal. “There is only going to be a few chances for either player, and sometimes it’s just who blinks at the wrong time.”
Based on current form, Federer is more likely to blink. The Swiss has always been forced to bring out his absolute best in order to prevail in this matchup–a matchup that he once trailed 23-10. Federer was able to do that earlier in 2017, but the tables have now turned. A relatively fast hard court will level the playing field, but it won’t be enough for the No. 2 seed to stop Nadal’s incredible winning streak.
Pick: Nadal in 3
[polldaddy poll=9851866]
WWW?
R. Federer will take home this baby.
#4-0
Stanley son , You have no idea what are you talking about , just bulling with nonsense
What’s the nonsense, that R. Federer will win.
You call that bullying, my goodness, are you a MORON?
R. Federer has defeated Nadal thrice this year and 4 times in a roll, R. Nadal can win Shanghai but to make a baseless comment like that because you disagree with my prediction is sick, you need help.
I truly feel sorry 4 U, please stop being obsessive.
I want Rafa to take this one…but Roger is more rested , Rafa had 2 tough matches
You don’t think Fed had a tough match with Delpo?
Sara you need to read this comment i posted here- https://tenngrand.com/2017/10/13/shanghai-sf-previews-predictions-federer-vs-del-potro-nadal-vs-cilic/comment-page-1/#comment-284183
i did not include their semifinal matches in Shanghai but you will get my point.
“A relatively fast hard court will level the playing field, but it won’t be enough for the No. 2 seed to stop Nadal’s incredible winning streak.” we hope so 🙂
Nadal in 2 6-4, 7-5
I actually think that Fed could be more tired than Rafa. I would imagine that at 36 it gets harder to recover from a three set match the day before that probably took a lot out of him, physically and mentally. I would assume that he was really hyped up to get revenge from the US Open loss. Although a Federer win would not be a shock given his historical edge over Rafa on post-US Open hardcourts, I am sticking with Rafa in 3. Rafa is on fire. Fed is not. Let’s enjoy it while we still have it!
I don’t think recovery would be any issue for Fed given the fitness he has shown this year. He is well rested and has had an easy week otherwise.
Physical fitness won’t be a factor here. The rallies will not be too long and both will be strong on serve.
Rusedki Steve tignor and delpo have all said roger has clear advantage and predicted him to win.
what did delpo say?
no. Delpo said that a hard court at least gives Federer a remote chance.
That’s not what I read. Here is the link. He clearly says Federer is the fav.
https://www.express.co.uk/sport/tennis/866529/Rafael-Nadal-vs-Roger-Federer-The-court-suits-Federer-more-Juan-Martin-Del-Potro/amp
Sanju, I don’t see where he says Fed is the clear favourite. He is just saying that both players can win and even though Rafa is playing so well, the conditions suit Roger a lot more. He also think not many people can beat Roger on this court but Rafa can perhaps do it given how well he is playing.
I don’t buy into this business about Rafa on fast or slow hardcourt etc. Even Federer disagrees that Rafa is not that good on hard courts as he says here in an interview in Shanghai:
Roger:
“Rafa has always played well on hard courts and he did very well at the Australian Open, he explained.
“The problem is that he has won ten times at Roland Garros and so it appears that his results on hard court aren’t so great, which is not the case.”
As far as I’m concerned, the player who is playing better today will win.
Vamos Rafa!
I honestly don’t care what Delpo or anyone else thinks. It’s not like they are saying anything we don’t know already! Big news flash! These courts favor Fed!
Rafa is riding a winning streak right now. Yes, during the hard court season, not the clay season! Rafa is playing so much better than he was earlier this year. His game has improved immeasurably in all respects, but there are a few key aspects.
First, Rafa’s serve, especially his degind serve. It’s not a coincidence that he had not been broken in Shanghai until the semifinal match with Cilic. His second serve has become a real advantage.
Second, Rafa’s ROS is probably the best it’s been all year. He is being more aggressive overall, taking the ball earlier.
Third, Rafa’s cc and DTL backhands have changed the dynamic in his matches because he is hitting these shots flatter and with more precision and accuracy.
Last, the confidence factor. Rafa managed to battle Fed to a fifth set in this year’s AO, even being up a break. This after Rafa had not been able to go deep in slams during his two year slump. He surprised everyone by playing well enough to come back from two sets to one down against Zverev. That match Rafa has called a game changer for him. He beat Dimi in an all out five set battle. Rafa just could not quite get over the finish line.
This is a very different Rafa. He has won his 10th RG. He stormed through the clay court season, winning MC, Barcelona and Madrid. Rafa won the USO. He won Beijing. Now he is in the Shangahi final.
Rafa wants this. He wants to be year end #1. He has won when the odds were against him because of his incredible will and mental strength. He will put it all on the line in the final.
Foreignworker (if not from USA!lol),
Last line above…He will put it all on the line in the final.
You bet Nadal will. You can bet a billion dollars on that! Nadal will not lose or match fix like Dolgopolov does! He will fight until death (if needed) like a spanish bull!
Vamos “Rrrrr…..Ruff-n-Tuf” Rafa!
Roger,
Your butchering of my user name was not amusing. It’s really not complicated. I was born in New York, therefore that makes me a Nativenewyorker.
Hope that helps!
This article is nice.
Lol. Really?
Honestly, this match won’t be easy for R. Federer, rafa is HOT right now and it would be an embarrassment if he loses 4 the 4th time this year or 5 times in a roll.
If R. Federer wasn’t my guy, i would bet against him not because he is not THE BEST but because it would be difficult 4 him.
It would be easy for nadal to learn from his loses/mistakes than for R. Federer because he has defeated rafa 4 times in a roll.
Whatever strategy Federer used to defeat Nadal, fed needs to change it a little bit cos rafa will correct them.
I wish i am R. Federer’s coach or trainer because if i am, this match will be over in 2 tight sets not 3.
Those of U who watched the semi’s live were spoilt cos the results & the long highlights that i just watched was very good, M. Cilic was knocking but didn’t open the door Bad Boy.
Roger is always ROGERLICIOUS, a set down and he came back up boy i love that, always hopeful no matter the situation.
He was Incredible yesterday, was Amazing today and he will be ROGERLICIOUS tomorrow, that’s Roger no one else.
#R. FEDERERISTHEBEST
#Nooneelse
I wish i can see you guy’s or hear your voices, i am sick and tired of typing this sucks!
The match tomorrow will be interesting and tough, whoever wins even if it’s Nadal if they deserve it by playing well, Congrats to them.
Both player’s are Amazing and i thank them & other 4 making tennis great again.
I love them, others & i love u guy’s a lot, i have learnt a lot from you guy’s, no matter how small, i want to say thank you.
#YOuguy’sareAWESOME!
The one thing you need to learn is to check your medication.
Hope this helps stanley-bot.
No it doesn’t.
HAWKTARD how are you?
And how is your family?
I hope they are fine.
I miss my HAWKTARD a lot.
I wish Ricky had picked Fed.
Fed in three
Federer doesn’t blink though.
#RickyDoesntGetIt
#HerbertWillWin
Presuming both guys defeated said other guy should win ????????mmmmm
I don’t think I’ve ever seen Nadal play at this level on a hard court. His serve particularly is the best I’ve ever seen it, and his movement has been incredible. Roger is a better returner than the players Rafa has faced so far, but his own serve isn’t quite what it’s been, and his level is not where it was mid-year. The court should favour Federer, but on current form I think Rafa takes this one. I hope I’m wrong, but I think it’s Nadal in 2 close sets.
Joe Smith, have you been busy?
I Haven’t seen u for sometime now, even though there was a period when i stopped posting because i was taking care of some important stuffs.
You on the other hand took a long time, what’s up joe?
Just been busy, Stanley. I have asked you a few questions on the non-tennis page.
Agree that Nadal displayed his smartest and the most complete form ever on hard. His form has been amazing, but tomorrow that might change.
Not one single person has mentioned what I consider to be very relevant here; the weather forecast for Shanghai tomorrow is atrocious and hence the roof will be closed. With an open roof I would have been putting my maximum bet on Nadal. With a closed roof though, this match-up is now 50/50 for me and hence I won’t be betting on the outcome. I shall instead sit back, watch and enjoy two magicians at work!
If R. Federer wins, it would have nothing to do with the roof because he is simply the best.
The roof thing is an excuse, let me make one-1) if it rains or shines it might affect Roger’s game causing him to lose.
2) if R. Nadal wears a blue dress it might affect Roger.
That is a good point, Chameleon. I’m not sure it will be enough, but if Roger can get his serve back to where it was during the grass season, maybe he can pull through. It was looking much better in the 2nd and 3rd sets against delpo.
He’ll have to hold serve as always. Nothing new.
Not new that he has to hold serve, but possibly new that it’s not quite on his racquet like it has been on this surface in the past. Roger’s serve has lost a little zip; not sure if it’s lingering back problems or just advancing age. Rafa’s ROS meanwhile has been terrific.
On the other side, Nadal is hitting a hell of a serve. Great 1st pct. and the slider out wide and follow up has been particularly devastating as a 1-2 punch. I expect Roger to do a better job on ROS and to put a bit more pressure on Rafa. But he will have to hit winners like he did earlier in the year to win. On current form, I give Rafa the edge from the baseline.
Extracts from Roger’s Presser:
he way we both play, we play so very different from one another. Also, the attitude, the way we go through our lives, you know, it’s all very different in some ways. Yeah, we have a similar mindset in the big moments.
I came to realize that when we played doubles. There is no sense of urgency or panic, I don’t want to say ever, but, you know, you could tell we have been there many, many times before. He’s a great champ, and I enjoy playing against him, even though the head-to-head is maybe not in my favor.
I think he’s definitely one of the guys that make me a better player. I don’t want to thank him for that, but he made me maybe rework my game and go back to the practice courts and think about what I could change maybe to become a better player.
an you talk a little about playing on this court and how it helps your game. ‘Margins are small. On fast courts it’s always, like I explained before about the break points, it’s got to sort of match up, you know, with — is Juan Martin going to serve so well on the big point that you can maybe almost do nothing about, or is he going to use the combo of the serve and forehands so perfectly that you just almost cannot come through, you know, even if you create so many chances.
And maybe tomorrow is the same thing. There is only going to be a few chances for either player, and sometimes it’s just who blinks, you know, at the wrong time. So it makes it always a close match on faster courts. But for me it’s good.
You know, the slice stays lower. I naturally play on the baseline. Maybe Rafa doesn’t have that many opportunities to go way, way back to return, even though he can also do it on hard courts and he’s the best ever to return from way back there.
So he almost has to play up on the baseline, but he’s been doing that almost perfectly here this week, you know. He’s maybe even surprised some of his opponents to play this good on the baseline and outplayed those guys.
So, I mean, look, he’s a great player on hard courts. On fast, as well. He wouldn’t have won Wimbledon otherwise. It’s going to be a tough one for me. I mean, I hope, of course, the service might help me a little bit.
That would be nice, anyways.’ The last time you played Rafa in Shanghai is 2007. Compared to 10 years ago, how has your relationship with Rafa changed and evolved? ‘He looks different (smiling). He’s not wearing the croppy pants anymore and sleeveless shirts and stuff.
he relationship? We were cool way back when, you know. I think we always got along very well. Always had a lot of respect for one another. He used to be more quiet and calmer and more shy way back when just because I had been on tour for almost 10 years at the time, and he was going through the motions with decision-making and all that stuff, especially at the ATP level that whatever Roger thinks, I’m his opinion, too.
Then as time went by, you know, he had his own opinion, which I thought was great. His character grew and became more confident. In the process, our relationship became bigger, I guess, you know, because we had to — we had some arguments, we had some disagreements, but for the most part, it was always good, you know, and very nice.
I think especially the last few years have been a pleasure for us. You know, especially being injured, for me, as well, seeing what he had to go through. I could never really relate to injured players, to be quite honest, because I never really was that hurt like he was.
I think the last year was a good reality check for me to maybe understand what he was going through so often. And then of course, you know, I was always happy for him, especially down the stretch of his career, that he kept on winning and proved people wrong, like I was trying to do the same.
And then we went to open the academy almost today on the day last year, which I know is very personal to him and very important. Especially with Laver Cup now, as well, the last year. It’s been great for both of us. I’m happy to call him a friend today.’
Some takeaways:
1. I have never seen more mutual respect in any sporting rivalry. The respect was kind of one-way in the beginning but over time Roger developed a lot of respect for Rafa. I think as Roger mentions in this interview above, his respect for Rafa really increased when he got injured himself for a long period of time. What Rafa has done in his entire career is nothing short of miraculous and Roger knows that!
2. Regarding this match up, Roger is fully aware it is going to benefit him. He talks about his slice staying very low here and that obviously makes it tougher for Rafa to get underneath the ball with his forehand. Roger also talks about the fact that Rafa might not be able to stand that far back to return and calls Rafa the best ever in returning serves from that far back, even on hard courts.
3. I think Roger knows this will be big challenge given how well Rafa has been playing bu the is confident that the surface will help him a lot as the margins are lower and he also mentioned that his serve would hopefully give him advantage.
VR, thank you for that.
No worries, Eugene
This is Rafa’s year at the second half. two sets to love.
Keeping Fingers Crossed and Hoping Ricky’s Prediction comes true. I like both of them and had a chance to see them Live(not against each other. i wish I get chance sometime)but this time i Badly want Rafa to win so he can have get at least one trophy at Shanghai(later part of the season.
Another Fed vs Rafa…are we lucky or what ?!!!!….Fed in straight.
Yeah, Federer will win in 2 or 3 it doesn’t matter as long as he wins.
Scoot Dimon are you related to Ricky Dimon?
Stan M&M licious,
How big are you going with the Federer bet? $1000 or $2000 or more?
Are you betting on Fed to win the 1 st set?
Are you going ML on Fed or +1.5 sets fed?
Who wins in the Doubles today?
Henri Kontinen/John Peers or Lukasz Kubot/Marcelo Melo
Like Kubot and melo to pull it off in 3.
Scoot Dimon are you related to Ricky Dimon?
I asked the same question before and scoot has scooted my question conveniently.
I think Scoot Dimon and Ricky Dimon are the same. Just alias. Probably creating more traffic here! Good for website stats!lol
As usual, the Grandstand prediction are pretty much strictly along party lines, as it really should be for this particular match. And let’s be honest, Rafa playing the best fast court tennis of his career and on a great win streak, combined with Fed’s significant historical edge over Rafa in post-US Open matches, makes this match very much a toss-up. Of course if one of the them ends up winning in straight sets, then those fans will say, “See, I knew _____ didn’t have a chance!” 🙂
If Federer serves well, he will win this match. If he struggles with his first serves again, Nadal will take this. Pre-match prediction is 55/45 for Nadal based on his current form.
Even if Fed serves well, he may not win, as Rafa’s ROS this late HC season is incredible.
Very true, Lucky. He will need to serve well AND be successful in dictating after the serve in order to win this match. If both guys do that, then it will come down to which one will “blink first”, as Fed himself says. When it comes down it, me choosing Rafa to win in 3 is really more of a guess than a prediction. All factors included, this should be the toughest match to predict that they’ve had in a while. Basically, I will not be the least bit surprised by any outcome here. I guess maybe I would be surprised if it was straight sets with loss of less than 8 games, for either of them. But aside from a blowout like that, I won’t be surprised by either of them winning, in either straight sets or in three. I strictly expect it to be close for at least part of it.