It will be the 38th installment of arguably the greatest rivalry in tennis history when Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer meet again in the title match of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on Sunday afternoon.
Nadal is leading the head-to-head series 23-14, but Federer has narrowed the gap to the tune of four consecutive victories–including three in 2017. Prior to this stretch, the 36-year-old had never won more than two matches in a row against Nadal. On the heels of a 2015 Basel triumph, however, Federer got the job done earlier this year at the Australian Open (6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 in the final), in Indian Wells (6-2, 6-3 in the fourth round), and in Miami (6-3, 6-4 in the final).
The hard-court surface once again favors Federer, but there is some good news for Nadal. Currently No. 1 in both the rankings and the 2017 race, the Spaniard has captured two Grand Slam titles (the French Open and U.S. Open) since his early-season struggles against Federer. Nadal is also without question the hottest player on tour right now, with a current 16-match winning streak that also includes a winner’s trophy from Beijing. This week’s top seed has maintained momentum with defeats of Jared Donaldson, Fabio Fognini, Grigor Dimitrov, and Marin Cilic, surrendering only one set to Dimitrov in the process.
“(I’m) very happy,” Nadal said after beating Cilic 7-5, 7-6(3) on Saturday. “Of course I played I think a very high level of tennis. (It) was a great match again. In my opinion, he played well, too; was a great, good quality of tennis this afternoon.”
“I was hitting unbelievable shots off the ground, and against other guys they would be winners,” Cilic commented. “Or just with serving, serving well, that would be either an ace or winner, and he makes you play another shot.”
Federer fired winners past his friendly foe with surprising consistency in Australia, Indian Wells, and Miami, but the tide may have turned. Whereas Nadal is positively on fire at the moment, Federer has not been at his absolute best. The 19-time Grand Slam champion coasted through a favorable Wimbledon draw but was plagued by a back problem during the hard-court summer in Montreal (lost to Alexander Zverev) and New York (lost to Juan Martin Del Potro). Federer is much healthier in Shanghai, where he has taken out Diego Schwartzman, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Richard Gasquet, and Del Potro–the latter via a 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 decision.
“It’s nice at this late stage of the career that we still have these matches going on,” the world No. 2 said of the rivalry with Nadal. “There is only going to be a few chances for either player, and sometimes it’s just who blinks at the wrong time.”
Based on current form, Federer is more likely to blink. The Swiss has always been forced to bring out his absolute best in order to prevail in this matchup–a matchup that he once trailed 23-10. Federer was able to do that earlier in 2017, but the tables have now turned. A relatively fast hard court will level the playing field, but it won’t be enough for the No. 2 seed to stop Nadal’s incredible winning streak.
Pick: Nadal in 3
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