Rome final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 54th time in their careers when they battle for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia title on Sunday afternoon.

Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 28-25 and is sporting a commanding 13-3 record in the last 16 installments of this incredible rivalry. The Serb has won two in a row at Nadal’s expense, triumphing in an epic five-set semifinal at Wimbledon in 2018 before rolling 6-3, 6-2, 6-3 in this year’s Australian Open final.

But there is plenty of good news for Nadal. In his own famous words, spoken earlier this week, “We are in Rome.” And Rome means clay. The Spaniard is 16-7 against Djokovic on this surface and 4-3 in Rome. They faced each other in the semifinals of this event last spring, with Nadal getting the job done 7-6(4), 6-3 on his way to an eighth title in the Italian capital.

The advantage may go to Nadal this time around, as well, even though this clay-court swing has been an aberration to his rule of dominance. He failed to lift the trophy–or even reach the final–in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, or Madrid before appearing to right the ship this week with a quartet of straight-set victories. Djokovic, on the other hand, is coming off consecutive three-set battles against Juan Martin Del Potro and Diego Schwartzman. The world No. 1 need more than three hours while saving two match points to overcome Del Potro in the quarterfinals on Friday.

“It’s obvious that I played more than Rafa,” Djokovic admitted. “At the same time, I’m in the finals and that’s a great success,” said Djokovic. “It’s not the first time I find myself in these kinds of situations. I feel okay; of course not as fresh as at the beginning of the week. It is what it is. I’ll try to recover.”

Nadal will simply be trying to maintain momentum from Saturday, when avenged a recent Madrid loss by trouncing Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-3, 6-4

“(It’s an) important victory for me because I played a solid match against a good player and a player who is winning lot of matches on this surface,” the King of Clay commented. “So winning in straight sets against him is a very positive result. More than this is a feeling that I am playing better every week (and) every day.”

While Nadal’s confidence is on the way to being restored, he needs a clay-court title heading into Roland Garros–especially given that it is his recent nemesis on the other side of the net. His urgency combined with what are surely to be a myriad of grueling rallies on clay will likely be too much for a fatigued opponent.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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43 Comments on Rome final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

  1. It’s a measure of Rafa’s confidence when he uses his his lethal DTL killer shot.
    How many times has Djokovic been handed a bagel? in his career?

    • ed,

      Yes I think the forehand DTL was the shot that did the damage. That shot is crucial when Rafa is playing Novak.

      They said on the tennis channel that this is the first time Novak was bageled playing Rafa.
      😍

  2. Looking at the match, Rafa did almost all the things i thought he should do in this match:

    He was aggressive, he played on the baseline, he shortened the points, took the ball early!!!! It was a great match tactically!!

    Hope his demons have now been arrested!!

    Now I see many pll are proclaiming Novak was tired…..maybe but so was Rafa!! Sigh!!

  3. For years Rafa has been winning all the the clay court tourneys AND RG. He was not tired?!! Seriously, how could tire be forwarded as an excuse?! Rafa is tired too, and coming off injury!!

    Novak got bageled and was given a breadstick! I think order is restored after the AO19 annihilation!

  4. If Novak was tired it’s because he had to fight his way to the final, losing 36 games whilst Rafa only lost 13 games.

    • How could Rafa be tired??
      Deserved winner, got his tactics right and he needed this title.
      Having said that, it hasn’t been a great tournamnent with all the delays and rescheduling.

      • Talk to Fed about having to play two matches in one day! That obviously cost him. At 37 that was brutal. But it’s the sport.

        This time Novak did not get any walkovers. He had to play his way into the final and by all rights he should have lost to Delpo. But if he has a few tough 3 set matches, that’s the way it goes.

        Rafa was the better player today. Period.

        • They’re both older now, its not 2011 when Djoko had a really tough semi against Murray then still managed to beat Rafa quite easily the next day.

        • I wasn’t making excuses for Djoko. was thinking more of other players like Thiem,whose performance was disappointing most likely because of the delays.

      • That’s very insightful. Loses 2 sets 61 and 61 but manages to win the 2nd because Nadal lacked discipline more like it.

        • Its been a while since Rafa has his ups and downs in matches!!

          Rafa got more match play under his belt, good for him.

          NNY, I agree about Delpo choking that match away. I think these two matches exposed Novak and it will give other guys confidence against him.

          Rafa i feel is peaking nicely, pray no injuries.

          • Monalisa,

            Yes, we agree about Delpo choking it away. He had the match on his racket. But he let Novak win the last four or five points of that TB.

            Delpo’s powerful ground strokes were too much for Novak. For whatever reason, he just could not finish it to get the win.

            I also agree that we can look at the three set match as Rafa getting more match play. He was hardly going to be tired after getting knocked out in three semi finals. I also think that losing the second set and then coming out strong to convincingly win the third set, was a good thing for Rafa’s confidence.

            That DTL forehand just changes the dynamic when Rafa plays Novak. That shot did so much damage. Rafa’s movement was phenomenal. He was everywhere, like the energizer bunny. Who would have thought that in a three set match with Novak, Rafa would serve up a bagel and a breadstick? How impressive was that!

            Rafa needed this match mire than Novak. But I also thought that Novak was not as mentally strong as I thought he would be, after he was broken in the first game of the third set, he had a meltdown and never really recovered.

            Rafa is now in a good position for RG. There is nothing like bearing your biggest rival! Rafa is peaking at the right time.

          • As much as Novak knows how to beat Rafa and has had the psychological edge, Novak knows he must play his best against Rafa or he will lose. Novak has tremendous respect for Rafa’s game and vice versa. I just wish instead it was at a point where we would not tell who would win when these two play!

  5. Agree Rafa peaked at just the right moment –– but I was still nervous before the match began even though I it was clear Djokovic was way below his usual level. Dropping the second set after dishing out a bagel didn’t come as a big surprise: Rafa has a tendency to go walk about in the second set. He even did it on his way to winning his first Olympic Gold in 2008!

    • Correct. Fed has a silver in singles (2012) and a gold in doubles (2008). Djokovic has a bronze in singles (2008). Murray has two golds in singles! (2012, 2016). Delpo has a silver in singles (2016) and Nishikori got the bronze that year. I don’t remember who got the bronze in 2012.

  6. I’ve only now been able to watch the match. Obviously a very impressive win for Nadal. I actually don’t know how Djokovic won that second set, because it looked like it should have been over in 2. This was Rafa’s best clay match of the year, even better than the semi-final. His groundstrokes were deep and heavy, his FH down the line was firing, and his serve was good overall.

    However…I don’t think we can draw too much from this match. Djokovic was clearly out of gas (as was Tsitsipas) and said as much afterwards. He was terrible on the short balls early in the match, and failed to capitalize even when he had an advantage in the rally. I’d say he was at least two steps below his best. Would his best have won today? I don’t know, because Rafa was so good, but the fact that he was able to win a set even at this low level tells me that his best will still be hard to beat even by Nadal on clay, assuming Novak can find that level at RG (which is not a given). So, congrats to Nadal and his fans! I doubted him and am still not totally convinced, but his path to this title was undeniably convincing.

  7. I’ve only now been able to watch the match. Obviously a very impressive win for Nadal. I actually don’t know how Djokovic won that second set, because it looked like it should have been over in 2. This was Rafa’s best clay match of the year, even better than the semi-final. His groundstrokes were deep and heavy, his FH down the line was firing, and his serve was good overall.

  8. However, I don’t think we can draw too much from this match. Djokovic was clearly out of gas (as was Tsitsipas) and said as much afterwards. He was terrible on the short balls early in the match, and failed to capitalize even when he had an advantage in the rally. I’d say he was at least two steps below his best. Would his best have won today? I don’t know, because Rafa was so good, but the fact that he was able to win a set even at this low level tells me that his best will still be hard to beat even by Nadal on clay, assuming Novak can find that level at RG (which is not a given).

  9. I’d say he was at least two steps below his best. Would his best have won today? I don’t know, because Rafa was so good, but the fact that he was able to win a set even at this low level tells me that his best will still be hard to beat even by Nadal on clay, assuming Novak can find that level at RG (which is not a given).

  10. So, congrats to Nadal and his fans! I doubted him and am still not totally convinced, but his path to this title was undeniably convincing.

  11. I’m glad that Rafa has beaten Djoker so convincingly before RG because he has lost to him too many times lately. That should help Rafa’s mindset although Rafa maintains that his losses were all about how his body was holding up.

    People who are complaining about Djokovic getting the wrong end of the schedule didn’t complain on Stan’s behalf when at the USO in 2016, Djoker had 2 retirements and a WO getting to the final having completed only 3 matches whilst Stan had played 6 matches. Djokovic benefits from more WOs than anyone else.

    • Tell them Nadline, esp for those with short memories!

      Just last week in Madrid he had a w/o and the commies were lamenting whether it would sere him well!! And oh yes it did!!

      Its his fault that he could not put away Delpo and Swartz in sr8t sets! And in tennis, its called occupational hazard, lol!!

  12. Nadaline 10 i wish you would go over to tennis-x and tell that to the Novak excuse makers over there, saying he wasnt going all out for the win, tanking blah blah, two Argentinians gassed him out, saving himself for RG blah blah , i wish some people would accept that Rafa was actually better than him on this occasion ….

  13. Nadalie 10 and Monalisa great posts, i wish you both would go over to another forum , and explain this to all the Novak excuse makers ….

    • Alison, Oh boy, I have read them! And I am not too upset about fans trying to defend the performance of their fav player but some of the excuses are so lame!!

      I mean if Novak can be tired after playing 2 3-setters now, what’s going to happen at RG where it is very possible that he has to play two matches in one day which has happened to Rafa at RG!

      What about the match Rafa played against Roger in AO2009 after playing Verdasco?!!! Rafa wasn’t tired?! Sure he was younger then but these were two brutal matches and he won them both!!!! Isn’t Novak supposed to be the fittest on tour…….gluten-free an all, lol!!!

    • Sean Randall is not a Rafa fan consequently, he encourages Fed fans and lately Djoker fans to say whatever they want.

  14. Hey there are NO excuses! People here have gone on and on about how Rafa fans always make excuses for his losses. So NO excuses for Novak!

    Rafa was the better player today! Enough said!

      • Hello! Alison referenced another forum where they are making excuses! I read that some commentators talked about Novak being tired.

        How about Novak being two steps below his best! When I think of the crap I had to read about how Rafa was still injured when he lost in the semis of three clay tournaments, it just makes me sick!

        Rafa had to get his form abs strength back after the knee injury in I/W, it seems that he has finally gotten there.

        I have been reading online about Novak having two tough 3 set matches before the final. Please! No walkovers this time!

        When Novak was broken in the first game of the third set and had a meltdown and smashed his racket, that seemed to give Rafa the advantage. The tennis channel commies said that he never recovered from it. Rafa went on to easily take that set and the match. Since when does Novak fall apart like that? He is the one who should have had the mental advantage after all his wins against Rafa recently. Yet Rafa was the one who showed superior mental strength. That is why this victory was so satisfying on so many levels.

        I watched the match again and there was a lot to like about Rafa’s performance. He plated his best and beat the number 1 player. Well done!

  15. The day before the match they were all saying Novak was going to annihilate Rafa! The day after the match, Novak was tired! Sigh!!!!!!

  16. Hi all, I didn’t get to see the first set but managed to watch the later part of second set and the whole of third set.

    I read that Rafa was aggressive with his FHDTL shots to bagel Djoko in set one. When I saw the second set, Djoko seemed to fight hard and Rafa backed off a bit; I was worried then that Rafa might lose the third set when Djoko won the second 7-5. The Doha 2010 final against Davy came to my mind – Rafa bageled Davy in set one, lost the second, and then lost the third in a TB if I’m not wrong.

    When Rafa came out so aggressive against a top notch opponent, he usually won the first set easily but, he normally couldn’t keep up the intensity and so his opponent might then win the second. The third set could then be a toss up. I was so worried the this would happen against Djoko.

    I have to say Djoko was dead tired after first winning Madrid and then here at Rome had to fight past two long matches to reach the final. Well, that’s the thing about the draw, Djoko had it easy at Madrid – one walkover, and then got some help from Fed in softening Thiem a bit, and some help from Rafa in softening Tsitsipas.

    At 32, he’s already doing well in reaching two B2B finals, winning one. As I suspected, winning two B2B titles in B2B weeks was just too much to ask for. Djoko couldn’t win his sunshine doubles after winning them in 2016, and that was with a week in between though having to play two more matches.

    I’m so happy for Rafa, this win will certainly boost his confidence; I think he’s really very determined to beat Djoko for the title – ending the title drought and stopping the winning streak of Djoko against him.

    Rafa can still work to serve and return better, which I think will be motivation for him to continue improving. I’m looking forward to the day when he can successfully merge both his defensive and his new found offensive game together and playing that way going forward.

    Congrats and Vamos Rafa, go get the FO title! Congrats to my fellow Rafa fans, we are certainly very happy and very pleased with the results and the performance Rafa put forth this week in Rome. Title no. 9, and defending it from last year (which took him a good five years to win it again after 2013!).

    • Yes! What matters is how Rafa is playing, not whether Djokovic was tired or not. Rafa’s playing really well! I know that not only because of what happen-ed in Rome and what I saw but because Rafa SAYS so. He knows when he’s playing well – or not – and he says so.

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