Rome final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 54th time in their careers when they battle for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia title on Sunday afternoon.

Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 28-25 and is sporting a commanding 13-3 record in the last 16 installments of this incredible rivalry. The Serb has won two in a row at Nadal’s expense, triumphing in an epic five-set semifinal at Wimbledon in 2018 before rolling 6-3, 6-2, 6-3 in this year’s Australian Open final.

But there is plenty of good news for Nadal. In his own famous words, spoken earlier this week, “We are in Rome.” And Rome means clay. The Spaniard is 16-7 against Djokovic on this surface and 4-3 in Rome. They faced each other in the semifinals of this event last spring, with Nadal getting the job done 7-6(4), 6-3 on his way to an eighth title in the Italian capital.

The advantage may go to Nadal this time around, as well, even though this clay-court swing has been an aberration to his rule of dominance. He failed to lift the trophy–or even reach the final–in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, or Madrid before appearing to right the ship this week with a quartet of straight-set victories. Djokovic, on the other hand, is coming off consecutive three-set battles against Juan Martin Del Potro and Diego Schwartzman. The world No. 1 need more than three hours while saving two match points to overcome Del Potro in the quarterfinals on Friday.

“It’s obvious that I played more than Rafa,” Djokovic admitted. “At the same time, I’m in the finals and that’s a great success,” said Djokovic. “It’s not the first time I find myself in these kinds of situations. I feel okay; of course not as fresh as at the beginning of the week. It is what it is. I’ll try to recover.”

Nadal will simply be trying to maintain momentum from Saturday, when avenged a recent Madrid loss by trouncing Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-3, 6-4

“(It’s an) important victory for me because I played a solid match against a good player and a player who is winning lot of matches on this surface,” the King of Clay commented. “So winning in straight sets against him is a very positive result. More than this is a feeling that I am playing better every week (and) every day.”

While Nadal’s confidence is on the way to being restored, he needs a clay-court title heading into Roland Garros–especially given that it is his recent nemesis on the other side of the net. His urgency combined with what are surely to be a myriad of grueling rallies on clay will likely be too much for a fatigued opponent.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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44 Comments on Rome final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

  1. Correction: Djoko won the second set 6-4.

    Rafa has now won at least a title in each of the last sixteen years (from 2004 to 2019), winning at least a big title in 14 of them (2004, 2015 he didnt win at least a masters). He’s inside the top ten in 15 of those 16 years! Impressive!

    • Luckystar, when Rafa and Roger used to get all the night matches, Djokovic’s fans used to complain that he was being ignored. If he was tired it’s because he didn’t win his matches easily because whilst Rafa only lost 13 games to the final, Djokovic lost 36 games and was within one point to losing to Delpo.

      At Rio in 2016, Rafa finished his night match at 3 am and had to play his next round the next day losing to Fognini. No one made any excuses for Rafa then and Fognini was praised for his achievement of beating Rafa on clay.

      Djokovic has had more WOs and retirements than anyone. He’s benefitted from good luck so often so let’s give Rafa the credit he’s due. Djokovic is never tired, let’s face it.

  2. luckystar, I have huge respect for you but cut the crap about djokovic being tired, it was 2 weeks not 5 weeks and 3 setters is a given with del potro who was supposed to win that match anyway.

    But djokovic produced his best in set two to win it against rafa if not there’s no way in hell he would have won it, rafa should have won in two. 6-0 6-2 and i am being generous. but djoko produced his best in set two and won it, then rafa changed his strategy and destroyed him in set 3, period.

    In set 1 it was the fhdtl while in set 3 it was a combination of the fhdtl and ccbackhand. Case closed.

    I’ll be so happy with rafa winning his 12th french open and i believe he will regardless of djokovic, period.

  3. Djoko was definitely tired, he kept bailing out of rallies. He went for a whole bunch of drop shots he wouldn’t have otherwise gone for.

    It’s not really surprising given he played back to back tough matches, plus physically he just hasn’t been in top form since the AO.

    That’s not any excuse, it’s just where he’s realistically at for fitness, he got fatigued.

    Credit to Rafa for being good enough to crush his opponents fairly quickly and avoid 3 set slogs in a tournament that’s physically demanding, he was clearly too good for Djoko on the day.

  4. Djokovic is considered the warrior, the fittest man on tour, except for when he loses, then its all , he was tired, not playing to win, saving himself for the FO blah, blah, why cant people just accept that a better player won on the day, Djokovic is like all great champions, same as Rafa, same as Roger, with a huge ego, he aint gonna like losing to one of his greatest rivals, sorry but im not bying that for one single minute, its not in his or any other all time greats DNA ….

  5. If Djokovic managed to win a set with no legs whatsover underneath him, imagine what he can do when he’s fresh. I reckon he’s thinking exactly the same thing and Im tipping him to win RG this year.

    • How can his legs be fresh when he has to play BO5 and seven matches over two weeks? He’s not young anymore and after some heavy duties during this clay season, I doubt he’s all that fresh. Furthermore, he’s more susceptible to going long distances in his earlier round matches than Rafa, all the more he won’t be that fresh physically.

      • I rest my case too, Luckystar!!

        And moreover, there might well be a chance that the players end up playing tow matches in one day if the weather decided to be uncooperative!!! We see it happen almost every year!!

    • If he ended up with no legs battling with Delpo who is finding his way back and no tools Diego that’s his problem. People are just in denial that Rafa took Djoker to the bakery on Sunday.

      • Its because he wasnt match fit, this was evident at the start of the clay court season when he lost early in Monte carlo. He is now most liekly match fit and will be able to withstand some tough matches.

        He lost the Rome final at the expense of improved fitness and had no business winning set 2 against Nadal. Nadal wouldve won that 2:0 9 times out of 10 and the fact that he lost that set is consistent with his inconsistency during the clay court season hus far.

        Djokovic will be thinking how easy it is to win a set when he thought he was going to lose 60 60 before the match started.

        Djokovic will win RG this year, mark my words.

  6. Interesting to reread these discussions after Madrid compared to now…its only one week, in which Nadal sorts all his problems and Djoko’s legs aren’t going to get him through RG…

    • I can’t remember anytime since 2011 when Djoker has been hampered by fatigue. He explained this by saying he uses the CVAC chamber to recover. So no excuses, please. No matter what his apologists say, Djoker will know why he was so comprehensively beaten by Rafa on Sunday and he’ll know it wasn’t to do with being tired.

      When I watch Djoker’s matches, the one thing I notice is that his game is 90% accuracy from the baseline and he mops up points from UEs from his opponents when they get fed-up of the ping pong, go for a winner and miss. The players who beat Djokovic, take him away from the baseline and mix it up a bit – players like Stan and B-Agut. They don’t let him get into a comfortable rhythm defending the baseline then wrong foot him all the time, very much like what Rafa did to him on Sunday.

      I hope Rafa continues to play him like this.

      • I agree, Djoko is super strong from the baseline, so to beat him you have to take away his time so that he’ll feel rushed and thus will make more errors. If not, then you have to over power him from the baseline, the way Stan did in the past.

    • What’s the problem? The conditions in Rome are more favorable to Rafa’s game than Madrid. Nothing has changed. As far as Rsfa finding his form, it looks like he is feeling stronger and has gotten his physical strength back since he had the knee injury. He did not have much time after I/W to recover. But it all came together in Rome. Anyone with eyes could see that Rafa played his best tennis in Rome.

      As far as Novak, he just did not seem on his game. He usually would peak in the final. I do not buy for one minute that back-to-back three set matches took it out of him.

      No need to have a hissy fit or get sarcastic. Novak can certainly find his best form at RG. Rafa is now in a position to peak and find his best form at RG. Like he has so many times in the past.

        • Ill have to read back over the comments after Madrid after Djoko played so well , and struggling Nadal hadn’t won a clay title this year, so naturally his fans were a bit worried. But I never doubted Nadal would play better this week and always said he was the favourite for RG.Djoko was obviously struggling after his three setters while Nadal was in great form and I knew he would win .So Im not sure what your point is ?

          • You choose not to get my point! It’s that simple. More disrespect.

            Novak does not get tired after three set matches. His fitness is unquestioned. I don’t think he was strong mentally in that match and that is surprising considering his recent wins against Rafa. The fact that Novak cooks not put away a Delpo coming back from injury and Schwartzman, taking three sets to go it, is s sign that he was not on his game. He can still get there at RG.

            There are no excuses for that loss in the final! Novak had all the advantages going into that match. Rafa was the superior player that day. He outplayed Novak and also showed more mental strength.

            Of course Rafa’s fans would be concerned after Madrid. Thai is only normal. Then we had to read on here that Rafa had to still be injured. By a Fed fan! Well he was not still injured. He just needed time after the knee injury to get his physical strength back.

            I am done trying to reason with someone who uses rudeness and condescending comments.

          • I never said Novak was tired or his legs wouldn’t get him through RG.Others did. The point of my post at 10.46pm was that in one week there was a big switch in general opinion of who the favourite for RG was. Only one week.
            Having said that,maybe Nole was a bit tired having reached back to back finals and far more time on court than Nadal.
            Maybe you should stop looking for things that aren’t there?

          • Condescending? And then you turn it around, while giving your own disrespect to all ‘Fedfans’ .
            Who cares?

            Nothing to read into the past few weeks on clay, as far as predicting a winner at RG is concerned. Nadal is still the favourite , but theres been a different winner at each of the clay warm up events, so its much more open than in other years.
            Womens even more so, really looking forward to it.

  7. But while Rafa played a good tactical match, Djoko did lose a significant number of unforced errors, mainly smashes, volleys and other point finishing shots .

    • Big Al, that’s because Rafa was dictating the rallies consequently Djoker was forced to play volleys and overhead smashes when he wasn’t ready for them because he wasn’t controlling the points.

      • There were a few times though, that a routine putaway would have won the point and they were important moments matches are lost on them.

    • Yep, the Djokosmash was back in all its dubious glory! His droppers were going astray too. I didn’t think his volleys were that bad.

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