Rome final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 54th time in their careers when they battle for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia title on Sunday afternoon.

Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 28-25 and is sporting a commanding 13-3 record in the last 16 installments of this incredible rivalry. The Serb has won two in a row at Nadal’s expense, triumphing in an epic five-set semifinal at Wimbledon in 2018 before rolling 6-3, 6-2, 6-3 in this year’s Australian Open final.

But there is plenty of good news for Nadal. In his own famous words, spoken earlier this week, “We are in Rome.” And Rome means clay. The Spaniard is 16-7 against Djokovic on this surface and 4-3 in Rome. They faced each other in the semifinals of this event last spring, with Nadal getting the job done 7-6(4), 6-3 on his way to an eighth title in the Italian capital.

The advantage may go to Nadal this time around, as well, even though this clay-court swing has been an aberration to his rule of dominance. He failed to lift the trophy–or even reach the final–in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, or Madrid before appearing to right the ship this week with a quartet of straight-set victories. Djokovic, on the other hand, is coming off consecutive three-set battles against Juan Martin Del Potro and Diego Schwartzman. The world No. 1 need more than three hours while saving two match points to overcome Del Potro in the quarterfinals on Friday.

“It’s obvious that I played more than Rafa,” Djokovic admitted. “At the same time, I’m in the finals and that’s a great success,” said Djokovic. “It’s not the first time I find myself in these kinds of situations. I feel okay; of course not as fresh as at the beginning of the week. It is what it is. I’ll try to recover.”

Nadal will simply be trying to maintain momentum from Saturday, when avenged a recent Madrid loss by trouncing Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-3, 6-4

“(It’s an) important victory for me because I played a solid match against a good player and a player who is winning lot of matches on this surface,” the King of Clay commented. “So winning in straight sets against him is a very positive result. More than this is a feeling that I am playing better every week (and) every day.”

While Nadal’s confidence is on the way to being restored, he needs a clay-court title heading into Roland Garros–especially given that it is his recent nemesis on the other side of the net. His urgency combined with what are surely to be a myriad of grueling rallies on clay will likely be too much for a fatigued opponent.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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24 Comments on Rome final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

  1. Djokovic got the fitness he needed heading into RG but that’s come at the expense of the Rome Masters. Nadal get’s his first clay court title for the season.

    Djokovic was running on fumes against Schwartzman after the Del Potro match and playing 3 matches in 2 days. You just cant have that kind of lead up to a Nadal match on clay when Nadal is playing close to his relentless best on his favourite surface in ideal conditions.

    Nadal in 2. (Possibly best bet of the year).

  2. Rafa has come out looking intense and focused and ready on this match. He needs to keep it up and not let up. Breaking Novak in his first game and then holding was the start he needed.

    Vamos Rafa!

  3. Omg what is happening. Even the most die hard of Rafas fans would not have seen this coming. Novak must be feeling under the weather though Rafa is crushing it too

  4. Novak seems absolutely flat out there. That is something that i have not seen from him vs the other goats in a long time. Hope it is only fatigue and not injuries. But hope Rafa can get this over the line without drama. Rafa needs this more than Novak

  5. I told this after seeing the match yesterday. The “colm” has returned and the intensity has returned. When this happens nobody can beat Nadal on clay.

    • Yeah this situation is a double edged sword mentally. Losing from here means that he lost after brutalizing novak in the first set while winning from here means he won a match against his biggest rival that he was expected to lose

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