Rome final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 54th time in their careers when they battle for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia title on Sunday afternoon.

Djokovic leads the head-to-head series 28-25 and is sporting a commanding 13-3 record in the last 16 installments of this incredible rivalry. The Serb has won two in a row at Nadal’s expense, triumphing in an epic five-set semifinal at Wimbledon in 2018 before rolling 6-3, 6-2, 6-3 in this year’s Australian Open final.

But there is plenty of good news for Nadal. In his own famous words, spoken earlier this week, “We are in Rome.” And Rome means clay. The Spaniard is 16-7 against Djokovic on this surface and 4-3 in Rome. They faced each other in the semifinals of this event last spring, with Nadal getting the job done 7-6(4), 6-3 on his way to an eighth title in the Italian capital.

The advantage may go to Nadal this time around, as well, even though this clay-court swing has been an aberration to his rule of dominance. He failed to lift the trophy–or even reach the final–in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, or Madrid before appearing to right the ship this week with a quartet of straight-set victories. Djokovic, on the other hand, is coming off consecutive three-set battles against Juan Martin Del Potro and Diego Schwartzman. The world No. 1 need more than three hours while saving two match points to overcome Del Potro in the quarterfinals on Friday.

“It’s obvious that I played more than Rafa,” Djokovic admitted. “At the same time, I’m in the finals and that’s a great success,” said Djokovic. “It’s not the first time I find myself in these kinds of situations. I feel okay; of course not as fresh as at the beginning of the week. It is what it is. I’ll try to recover.”

Nadal will simply be trying to maintain momentum from Saturday, when avenged a recent Madrid loss by trouncing Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-3, 6-4

“(It’s an) important victory for me because I played a solid match against a good player and a player who is winning lot of matches on this surface,” the King of Clay commented. “So winning in straight sets against him is a very positive result. More than this is a feeling that I am playing better every week (and) every day.”

While Nadal’s confidence is on the way to being restored, he needs a clay-court title heading into Roland Garros–especially given that it is his recent nemesis on the other side of the net. His urgency combined with what are surely to be a myriad of grueling rallies on clay will likely be too much for a fatigued opponent.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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28 Comments on Rome final preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Nadal

  1. This is not complicated! A win is a win! A title is a title! It is utter nonsense to say that if Rafa goes on to win that it doesn’t mean anything. A title right before RG means confidence going into it. A win against Rafa’s biggest ribsl, no matter how it happens, is a big deal!

    • There. There you are, NNY.

      Voice of reason. It’s a confidence boost for the winner – a win is a win.

      The question I asked myself last week after Novak won Madrid: is he really going to win the Madrid – Rome double. Answer: No. That’s for those who can recover more quickly. Back to back 1000’s are still tough, though they are not best of five anymore.

      I’m satisfied with Rafa winning Rome and Nole winning Madrid. And Fogna winning Monte Carlo 😀 Thiem winning Barcelona, Tsitsipas winning Estoril. It’s all good.

      Rafa remains the favorite to win RG. Vamos!

      Delpo showed that he should not be overlooked when he plays any GS. And a good draw will mean a great deal. It’s tough when any time you get a Riley Opelka and then who knows what else. I think Rafa could handle Opelka in straight sets.

    • Omg I come here hoping to get a feeler for how the match is going. A 6-0 set in 54 mins.. and then I see epic comeback…geezz.. but somehow knew things were going Nadal’s way 3rd set .. so happy and watching the ceremony now. Damn I think a lot of guys aren’t too confident until he crosses the line … But thanks guys..

  2. Rafa just beat the guy who gave him a spanking in the final of the Australian Open. It’s a very, very big deal

  3. Well done. When Nadal played calmly the results were 6-0 and 6-1 sets. Although I still cannot believe that he got nervous and lost that 2nd set.

  4. Thanks Elizabeth! And condolences to you and your fave, Novak. I think he was rather tired – he’ll be back to compete again.

  5. Big confidence booster for Rafa, for sure. It doesn’t make me view Novak as any less of a co-favorite with Rafa for RG, as beating Novak at Slam again is a much taller task than Rome. As I said yesterday, If Rafa doesn’t have to face Novak at RG, just go ahead and give him the trophy. But if he does have to see Novak at RG, it’s a toss-up. We’ve seen how much Novak flips a switch when he’s on good form and faces Rafa or Fed at the majors. Outside of winning AO or Wimbledon again, I think that beating Novak at a major en route to the title would be the greatest thing for Rafa. And RG is where he can feel the most confidence that he can do that again. He’s beaten Novak there more times than I can count, he just hasn’t done it in 5 years, and those Slam losses do build up a mental mountain. Beating Novak at RG would be absolutely monumental for Rafa, and we know he can do it. Personally, I have faith he can, but it will be one of his greatest mental challenges. He’s overcome so many big hurdles in his career, so it’s nothing new to him.

  6. So proud of our Rafa!!! Bravo Champ
    I predicted a while ago Rafa will be ready to win Rome title! And he played very well in this final!
    Get ready, Paris! Healthy and motivated Rafa is coming!

    Vamos Champ!!! ❤️❤️❤️💪💪🍾

  7. So, Rafa gets more breakfast food, a bagel and a breadstick, lol! OK, a bit of castor oil in between.

    I do not agree that Rafa “needed” a title going into RG. Rafa knows when he’s playing well and, more important, improving still. He’s won RG 11 times. He knows when he’s playing at a level that will let him win, barring “accidents”. But it’s very nice indeed for him to have his ninth Rome title. Vamos Rafa!

  8. When Rafa played calmly, the results were 6-0 and 6-1. Still I cannot believe he got nervous and lost set 2. Hitting big forehands on important points in set 3 should give him a lot of confidence.

    This win will give Nadal a ton a confidence at the French.

  9. I voted for Rafa in 3 sets. But I was prepared for him to lose. I just wanted him to make it competitive. That second set was weird. Rafa had his chances to break. But he handed out a bagel and a breadstick in sets one and three.

    It won’t determine what happens at RG, but it was very important for Rafa to break the drought and get a title. The fact that he got it against Novak, was the icing on the cake. It will mean that Rafa goes into RG with confidence and momentum. He got his title. Right before RG. Most important of all, he played his best tennis.

    Well done Rafa!
    🥰

  10. The one big change I saw today was that Nadal was easily able to counter Novak’s bhdtl using his backhand cc. This shot has certainly gotten better.

    Novak still has the serving edge over Rafa. He gets a lot more aces than him, which was a key factor in Wimbledon last year. Might not be as much of a factor in RG

    Net Net, I think Rafa’s Rome SF and F level will be enough to get him a 12th RG crown.

  11. I did not get to see the match…….but I cant be more elated than I am right now!!

    See you at RG Rafa!!

    VAMOS!!!

  12. This was quite a day for Rafa lovers!
    Rafa coming out agressive surprised me,but honestly it’s the only way to put Novak on the ropes. It was a pity that Rafa couldn’t get the job done in straights,but credit to Novak for holding up well there,despite clearly tired.
    Some edges to be file in Rafa’s game (especially the ROS) but he’s getting there,match by match!
    People were fast to dismiss Rafa once again,affirming that he was done for good and all that stuff… You can never forget that Rafa is the ultimate fighter and will always give his all to comeback to his best level,despite all the pain he has to endure!
    Vamos King of Clay!

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